NFLRT 3/1/2024

The questions and discussion… 

1) QB Russell Wilson is widely expected to part ways with the Denver Broncos ahead of 2024 NFL free agency. And recently retired wide receiver Chad Johnson appeared on Shannon Sharpe’s “Nightcap” podcast and said, “A little birdie told me — and I said this many shows ago — Russell Wilson’s coming on over there to the Steelers.” When Sharpe pushed back by suggesting oddsmakers have the Bears QB Justin Fields as the favorite to land with the Steelers, Johnson replied, “No, (Fields is) going to Atlanta. I told you. I got the script.”

What are your thoughts regarding Johnson’s predictions for Wilson and Fields? Why?

I think Chad is right with his predictions on where Fields is going, so that leaves Russell Wilson going to Pittsburgh as a strong possibility.

The problem with Fields is that the Falcons are reportedly going to go after Baker Mayfield, which means the Buccaneers will need to secure him before free agency begins or they’ll risk entering a bidding war for Mayfield’s services. The Buccaneers won’t want to enter a bidding war while trying to get other players, including Mike Evans, locked up for, at least, next season.

The Steelers, as a collective, have been saying that Pickett is going to be their quarterback for next season, but will welcome a competition in camp. I think bringing in Russell Wilson will help in the immediate future, but securing a long-term option that can play for five-plus years will be more beneficial for the overall future of the Steelers. They could bring Wilson in and draft a quarterback mid-round and still be in a good position for the future.

But I think Wilson to the Steelers is a good option, and Fields getting traded to Atlanta will really help their offense and let Fields grow as a quarterback in an offense that better suits his style of play. They’ll need to bolster the offensive line.

Another option for Wilson would be going to New England, but they really need every position so unless they can get him for cheap to fill out the rest of the offense with a solid supporting cast, I don’t see Wilson wanting to play for the Patriots. 

I think the Falcons will go after Kirk Cousins in a big way and will most likely get him.  Their team is lot better that most people give it credit for and were held back by the ineffective play of their double headed QB situation with Ridder and Heinicke. Add in a veteran quarterback in Cousins and the Falcons would be, in my eyes, the favorite to win the NFC South as well as having a real shot at upsetting some apple carts in the playoffs.

As for Fields I think the oddsmakers have it right and he goes to the Steelers and gives them some stability at the QB position to improve their team and make them a real threat to be the first Wild Card out of the AFC if not steal the AFC North outright.

As for Russell Wilson?  After he gets released by the Broncos he goes a tad further out west and joins up with the Raiders and gets to play the Broncos twice next season  and exact a measure of revenge.  

2) Since all teams that had head coach openings have filled those positions it is obvious, barring an in season firing, Bill Belichick won’t be a head coach this season.

However just three days after San Francisco’s 25-22 loss to Kansas City in SBLVIII head coach Kyle Shanahan made the decision to fire defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and that position at this point is still open. Back after the  2018 season ended when Shanahan spoke at his end-of-year press conference, he said he likely wouldn’t be making any coaching changes… unless someone like Belichick became available. 

Belichick is now available.

But as Shanahan noted at the time, the 49ers could only hire Belichick if he actually wanted to coach in San Francisco, and right now, it doesn’t seem like anyone knows what Belichick wants to do. But as noted above the one thing he won’t be doing this year is working as a head coach. So that means if Belichick wants to coach in 2024, then he’s going to have to do it as an assistant. 

Could Bill Belichick wind up being the San Francisco 49ers’ defensive coordinator for the 2023 season? Why or why not?

I don’t think Belichick is going to be a defensive coordinator for San Francisco.

My ultimate opinion on Belichick is that he won’t want to do anything but be a head coach, with a little extra control on roster building, than being locked in as a defensive coordinator taking orders, ultimately, from the head coach. While Belichick has been known to have great defenses and been very strict with his regime and very disciplined, including on special teams as well, I don’t see Belichick wanting to get back into coaching unless he’s a head coach, so I don’t think we’re going to see him on the sidelines for 2024. I think the next time we should expect to see Belichick on a sideline, or the possibility on the sideline, is for the 2025 season. 

As great as it would be for the 49ers and as cool as it would be to see what Belichick could do with their defense I just don’t see Belichick taking a step down or backward speak to speak to be a DC for any team  in the NFL even if it’s a team a with significant Super Bowl possibilities for next season such as the 49ers.

Simply put…

It’s not gonna happen.

3) Derrick Henry, the most accomplished running back in recent years, is heading to free agency. 

In your opinion which team will sign Henry? Why? 

I think the team that’s ultimately going to get Derrick Henry is a team that had a rotation of running backs throughout the season last year and features the reigning MVP at quarterback. The Ravens will be the team Henry links to and ends his career with.

I think he would become a vital part of their offense in that he can provide power running, a lot of usage, and take the need away from Lamar Jackson to run the ball. He can run for over 1000 yards with ease and put fear into opposing defenses that the Ravens might run at any point in time. They were again led by Lamar Jackson in rushing with 821 yards last year, followed closely by their main running back, Gus Edwards, who had 810 but found the end zone rather consistently at 13. Henry can really change that narrative and make the running game a real threat from the backfield, instead of being led by a quarterback, again, who wants to focus more on passing and less on being the dual threat option that he’s been throughout his early years in his career. He’s still going to run a lot, but getting a Henry piece in there changes the dynamic of the overall offense and the need for Jackson to run. 

I have tried to fit Henry with various teams lineups and while I could see him working on those teams and/or those teams needing a back who can be a key part of their offense I just don’t see any of those team handing out a multi-year big bucks deal to an over 30 back even one as capable and as explosive as Henry.

That is except maybe for the Ravens.

With their two incumbent backs in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins both heading into free agency there will key opportunity to bring in a workhorse RB and as mentioned a back who can be explosive as well as dominant if need be to replace both Edwards and Dobbins in one fell swoop by signing Henry. And it should not be forgotten that at the 2023 trade deadline the Ravens were very close to working out a deal to acquire Henry, so the interest is already there.

Plus, with Henry in the offense it takes off the need for Lamar to be the top rusher on the Ravens and lets him be more judicious in deciding when to run with and allows him to get the ball into his lets him get the ball into the hands of his other play makers through hand offs and utilizing the pass more often.

With Henry in the Ravens backfield opposing defenses can’t just key on attacking Jackson and that gives the Ravens’ offense an added advantage in a very big way. Envision  Jackson using a lot of play action with Henry and defenses will have to freeze for an extra second or two to make sure they know which player has the ball and what winds up developing… is it a run by Henry or is Jackson keeping the ball with Henry blocking or is he passing it downfield to a wide open receiver?

Henry would add a lot to the Ravens offense. He makes a lot of sense for the Ravens to go out and get him.

4) And speaking of running backs heading into free agency the New York Post is reporting that the New York Giants are unlikely to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Saquon Barkley as the team did last March. Meaning in all likelihood Barkley will be able to sign wherever he can make his best deal.

Which team will sign Barkley? Why? 

I think Saquon Barkley actually goes back to the Giants.

I think he’s been a great fit in New York, can assist Daniel Jones in his return from neck injury, and finish out his career with the team that drafted him.

The Giants offense really relied on Saquon last season who had 1,242 total yards in both rushing (962) and receiving (280) including ten total touchdowns. He’s going to be a key piece on a poor overall offense to bring back and keep the momentum going and being able to provide that spark. It also is going to provide the Giants the flexibility of grabbing a running back in this year’s draft as a back-up for year one and establish him into either a two-head back situation or limit his usage and get him really going in 2025. But the Giants need to keep Barkley and let him be able to provide that spark, even when the passing game looking like it was left at the practice facility. 

It’s sounding more and more like at reading online that Barkley and the Giants are engaging into some very serious conversations to work out a deal for Barkley to stay in NY.

I think eventually they work it out.

Saquon stays in New York.

5) The New England Patriots have the overall third pick in this year’s draft.

Should the team use that pick to draft a young quarterback, such as Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels who very well be available at that point… or … go off script and draft wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr, who most experts are touting as close as there is to a surefire pick ready to start immediately and play at a high level in the NFL?

With the Patriots looking to ultimately move on from Mac Jones this off-season, it’s going to come down to who they’re able to grab in free agency. If they can get Kirk Cousins, land Justin Fields, grab Russell Wilson or Baker Mayfield, I think it will leave New England in a better position to draft a WR or a position player to help support the new quarterback. With such a huge need for everything on offense, I think the best route the Patriots need to go is drafting a top quarterback. And I wouldn’t even oppose of them trading up for the number one overall pick to get Caleb Williams.

It all comes down to how they grade out the top three quarterbacks, and if they feel like one of those three are worthy of top three picks, then I don’t think sticking with Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels is a bad option. They really need to get a reliable quarterback. That’s priority one.

But an equal priority, and would be in a 1A, 1B type of situation, is getting support. They need receivers. They need offensive line help. They need a running back. They need tight ends. So grabbing a future quarterback is great, but without also getting support, it’s going to leave them in somewhat the same situation as they were last season. So I would go against a trade up, stay put at three, draft a quarterback, then either try to get back up top for Marvin Harrison Jr as well, or just start grabbing position players and offensive line back-to-back-to-back.

And they need to be very aggressive in free agency, They’re expecting to have over $77 million dollars in cap space heading into free agency, which is fourth highest in the league behind the Commanders, Bears and Titans, that they’ll have the ability to be aggressive on the market and set up their offense the best they can to getting a newly drafted, rookie quarterback in the best possible position for success in their first NFL season. 

If I’m in the Pats draft room I would lobby in a big way for the team to take the best player available that is not a QB. I would wait until the second round and maybe the third to pick their future QB. And the guy I would target is Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. He’s an in impressive athlete at 6-foot-3, 202 pounds and can either run the ball effectively or pass it accurately downfield he led the Big Ten last season with a 72.3 completion percentage and against just four INTs.

When asked by peeps to describe his game he said, “Tough, gritty guy who only cares about winning at the end of the day. Loves the game of football with a burning passion, loves his teammates, pretty much everything you want in a starting quarterback.”

Perfect guy for the Patriots… who need just about everything and have about $100 million in cap space to spend besides using the draft to fill out their roster… to build around.