The questions and discussion…
On Sunday (12/8) news broke that the New York Mets and Juan Soto had come to an agreement on a deal worth Fifteen years, $765 million and no deferred money.
However… Per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the structure of the deal is front-loaded, and Soto will be paid $305 million over his first five seasons with the Mets which includes a $75 signing bonus.
However… after the 2029 season, Soto has the opportunity to opt out of his deal with 10 years and $460 remaining so he would mean he would be able to reenter free agency as a 31-year-old… but… the Mets have the opportunity to override his opt out by adding an addition $4 million per season to the final 10 years of his contract… which would then make the overall total of the Mets contract handed to Soto worth $805 million.
Now…
1) What does this signing mean for the Mets? Why?
Does adding Soto transform the Mets into a championship team for the 2025 season or are the Mets still a work in progress? In other words… What’s next for the Mets after signing Soto? Why?
Dan
Juan Soto signs with Mets
This new deal is insane money. And it’s an insane grab by the New York Mets, but they have an owner that is willing to spend to the moon and back in order to develop a championship team and bring a World Series ring to the Big Apple.
I think this is exactly what’s going to help the Mets jump over that last hump and compete with the Dodgers for a World Series bid. While they still have some work to do, as do every team in order to compete with the juggernaut in Los Angeles, I think you can certainly classify the Mets as a championship team. Juan Soto greatly improves the offense as a whole, and if they can successfully bring back Pete Alonso, they’re going to have that super power one-two punch that’s required for an offense to win and compete for the World Series.
Joe
Despite having been in the World Series five times and having won it twice (1969 and 1986) the Mets have been regarded mostly as an underdog team and in NYC that was particularly true where they often considered by many folks to be a second-class team in their own town to one of MLB’s premier franchises the Yankees.
With owner Steve Cohen floating boatloads of cash into Juan Soto’s bank accounts… not any more.
The Mets made the playoffs and outperformed everyone’s expectations (except maybe their own) and had a deep run into the playoffs before losing to the eventual world championship Dodgers and they did it with a nice mixture of some very decent to very good players (both on offensive and defense) with guys like Francisco Lindor (short), Brandon Nimmo (center), Kodai Senga (starter) and Edwin Diaz (closer). But with Soto on board it takes the to another level and MLB neighborhood… a neighborhood that includes the current World Series champs and the odds-on favorite to retain that title in 2025… the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If the Mets want to chase championships and be an authentic threat to the developing dynasty in LA then spending Cohen’s money to acquire Soto is a great first step to the Mets getting to that point.
Now they need to resolve their first base situation either by resigning Pete Alonso or by finding his replacement by trading for either the Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado or the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger or by signing another free agent in Christian Walker.
Then they need to shore up their starting rotation.
Their tendency to go after projects… in 2024 they had Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana who worked surprisingly well but who are either currently free agents or have already been signed by another team or by adding the recently Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes for the 2025 rotation is interesting, but to believe they can consistently replicate that strategy and essentially catch lightening again is kinda, sorta fine the short term but they need some foundation species for their rotation who the Mets can depend upon for the longer term and who can compete with the likes of the arguable elite rotations that the current word champion and current odds-on favorites to repeat in 2025 Dodgers have and the defending AL champs Yankees, who just added Max Fried to an already strong in-house rotation, possess.
But Soto is the first step to being regarded as a top team that can compete with the Dodgers in the NL as well as the other top teams in MLB for world championships in 2025 and beyond.
And…
2) Now that Soto is off the board, how does this change the market for the remaining free agents? Why? And what is your best guess for who will be the next “top” free agent name to sign next? Why?
Dan
Corbin Burnes
I think this significantly changes the free agent market. I think it raises the prices for the other elite hitters on the market and will allow for other teams to compete for the big players. I think this is going to intensify the Mets’ push for getting back Pete Alonso and getting a couple other quality offensive players to match with Juan Soto.
The Mets, after signing Juan Soto, is going to drive up the market for other players while they also are going to need to up their payroll to stay atop and continue to match the offensive superpowers that are in Los Angeles right now.
The next free agent off the board, however, will be a pitcher and it’s likely that he’s going to be joining another ex-Brewer who recently signed in San Francisco. Corbin Burnes will be the next player to sign, and I think his market value is going to go up a little bit as a result since he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, and most consistent.
Joe
In the aftermath of the December 9 announcement that Soto was going to the Mets we have already seen how teams are reacting as three of the teams that had made offers to Soto had already moved on and pivoted to acquiring a starting pitcher either through free agency or via a trade…
On December 10 the Yankees signed free agent Max Fried, and the Rangers signed Nathan Eovaldi, while on December 11 the Red Sox made a trade with the White Sox for Garrett Crochet.
The next big free agent off the board in my opinion will be Corbin Burnes and don’t be surprised to see him sign with Red Sox over the Giants.
And finally…
3) How does the Soto/Mets deal affect the rest of the New York Yankees off-season? Why?
Dan
After losing Juan Soto sweepstakes, Yankees sign ace pitcher Max Fried to historic contract.
The Yankees, after losing out on Juan Soto, need to severely address their offense. While Soto helped elevate them to the World Series last year, relying on Aaron Judge isn’t going to get them past the first round. We watched Judge completely fall apart when he was in the playoffs compared to the regular season, so the Yankees are going to need to get those supporting pieces around Judge to make up for him disappearing when it really matters. If the Yankees don’t address their offense and revamp their entire lineup, they won’t be reaching the postseason with any serious World Series aspirations next season.
Joe
They have already signaled how they intend to move on… Soto announcement breaks December 9; Yankees quickly pivoted and on December 10 they announced were signing lefthanded Max Fried.
With that move the Yankees strengthened what was perceived as one of their biggest strengths already… their starting rotation. Simply put… the first step of Plan B was adding to a rotation that was already pretty good, and now allows the Yankees to trade a starter (Luis Gil? Clarke Schmidt?) for help elsewhere on the roster.
As far as what the Yanks can do further in the aftermath of “losing” Soto.. this is what ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers recently wrote: “If they add first baseman Christian Walker and trade for Cody Bellinger — all with the money they saved on Soto — then who is to say the Yankees aren’t better without him? By the way, how do we know that wasn’t the Yankees’ strategy the whole time, knowing that Mets owner Steve Cohen would stop at no lengths to get the best player on the market. Either way, the Yankees are going to come out of the winter looking just fine.”
For the most part I agree with what Rogers says here and I agree that the “Yankees are going to come out of the winter looking just fine,” as they restock and retool…or to use a word GM Cashman offered recently “recreate”… their team for the 2025 season.
4) It’s an open secret that the Chicago Cubs are keeping close track of their spending these days and are open to moving salary in order to fulfill their needs elsewhere on the team. With that in mind the Cubs have signaled through various channels that they are willing to deal center fielder/first baseman and former National League MVP Cody Bellinger.
Do the Cubs move Bellinger this off-season? Why or why not?
And if Bellinger is traded… which team ultimately lands him? Why?
Dan
Cody Bellinger
I think that Cody Bellinger will get traded this off-season, and he’s going to get traded to the New York Yankees. However, the only problem with this trade getting done is what’s currently holding it up. The $52-million a year price tag that Cody Bellinger apparently is demanding is going to severely hold up this deal. It’s extremely surprising to see him demand this big of a contract, when he’s not really worth that contract. In 130 games last season, he had a 2.2 WAR, 111 OPS+, 18 home runs and 78 RBI while posting a slash line of .266/.325/.751 which isn’t worth Juan Soto money. If he withholds any trade unless he gets that super large contract, then I don’t foresee him going anywhere as no team, including Chicago, is not going to want to pay that type of money for a player with numbers they can get from a large group of players who would cost significantly less (around $20 million per year maximum). Bellinger will get traded, but he needs to loosen his expectations of money significantly in order for this to happen.
Joe
If Cody Bellinger is in fact traded… and everything I am seeing says the Cubs are doing everything they can to make it happen the best landing spot for him as well as the team that winds up trading from him is the New York Yankees.
According to the online sports scuttlebutt the Yankees off and on have been connected to Bellinger for about the last year or so and right now more than ever he’s a good fit for the Yanks and either of two of their immediate needs in their everyday lineup… first base and centerfield… both of which Bellinger can adequately play. His lefty bat will also play well in Yankee Stadium with the its so-called short porch in right field. He might never hit 47 HRs like he did in his 2019 MVP year, but he should be able to put up maybe 30+ and then who knows maybe 40 could still be possible depending who else the Yankees bring on board for their everyday lineup and where everyone bats in the order
Bellinger is owed $27.5 million in 2025, with a $5 million buyout for 2026, but from what I have been reading lately the Cubs want to trade him and his complete salary while the Yankees are asking the Cubs to eat some of that salary.
Still…in my opinion this is a trade that the Yankees should make… along with signing free agent first baseman Christian Walker… to make their everyday lineup better and deeper than it was in 2024. No, adding those guys doesn’t replace Soto and what he added to the Yanks in 2024 but as I just said they will make the team’s batting order deeper and better by being a more well-rounded batting order one through nine.
5) Also this past week…
23-year-old Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki was posted to Major League Baseball teams, and he will be available to sign as a free agent from this Tuesday (12/10) through 5 p.m. ET on January 23.
Because he is 23, Sasaki is considered an international amateur by MLB and is limited to a minor league contract subject to the international signing bonus pools usually allocated for 16-year-old Latin American prospect.
Also worth noting is that the 2024 signing period ends on Sunday (12/15) and the 2025 period opens on January 15, with team pools ranging from $7,555,500 to $5,146,200. (Teams may trade for additional pool allotment in $250,000 increments starting Jan. 15 but are limited to adding 60% of their initial amount.)
The implication being that Sasaki is a very likely front line starter that any MLB, regardless of market size and/or cash reserves, will be able to afford.
With all that said…
When Sasaki inks his MLB contract is there any way that the team he will be join will not be the Los Angele Dodgers? Why or why not?
Roki Sasaki
Dan
I don’t think Roki Sasaki is going to land anywhere but in Los Angeles with the Dodgers. They have the Japanese market, and global market, already locked down with Shohei Ohtani. Add to Ohtani with Yamamoto, it is a perfect environment for comfort and adjustability for Sasaki to transition to not only America, but also Major League Baseball life. The Dodgers also have the ability to pay Sasaki whatever he wants, while using up their international signing pool money. Having the ability to mortgage their future with immediate results is a luxury that the Dodgers can afford. They’re coming off a World Series title and are going to be favorites to win the World Series again in 2025, so this is the perfect environment for Sasaki to comfortably land and excel. I don’t expect Sasaki to want to go anywhere except LA, and that’s where he’s going to be.
Joe
Don’t listen to a word from all the various rumors abounding on the internet and the various media shows about how any team can afford Sasaki due to the fact that because of his age Sasaki is subject to Major League Baseball’s international amateur guidelines; more specifically, that means he can only sign a minor league deal and receive a bonus that fits within a team’s league-allotted, hard-capped bonus pool.
Forget about all that because I will be very surprised, shocked even, if when all is said and done if Sasaki is not a Los Angeles Dodger.
Extra Innings…
Mets owner Steve Cohen (left) shakes hands with Juan Soto (right) while president of baseball operations David Stearns (center) looks on.
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