NFLRT 9/6/2024

The questions and discussion…  

1) Throughout the history of the NFL there have been just eight running backs who have ever surpassed 2,000 rushing yards in a single season. And among those eight players Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 yards is the single season rushing record.

In today’s NFL is there a running back that could break Dickerson’s single season rushing record? Why or why not?

And if there is… then who is it? Why?  

In 1984 in jus this second year i the NFL Eric Dickerson ran for a total of  2,105 yards and established the record for rushing yards by a back in a single season. Forty years later it still stands and that’s despite an extra game being added to the season making it 17 games instead of the 16 when Dickerson set the record.

In many ways this is as close to a unbreakable record as there is in the NFL especially in this era where runnin backs aren’t the workhorses in games as they were during Dickerson’s time in the game. In today’s NFL most teams use a committee approach in order to keep their running backs fresh. Even with the expanded 17-game season, last season there wasn’t a single running back who had 300 carries last season. In comparison Dickerson led the league with 390 carries as a rookie and had 379 carries when he broke Simpson’s record the next year.  And as Dickerson once said, when speaking with the media in 1983 prior to setting the rookie record for rushing yards in a season, “I don’t like to think about records, but they’re made to be broken.”

And in my opinion, there are a few backs in the game today, that with right system, who can be used to dominate games by taking the ball often and grinding out yards in an effort to control games by keeping the opponent’s offense off the field.

So sooner or later I expect Dickerson record to fall.

The discussion becomes… Is there aa back in today’s game who can be the guy who breaks Dickerson’s record?

Once upon a time I would have had Derrick Henry at the top of this list. In fact Henry is one of the only eight backs who have even run for over 2,000 yards in a season when he ran for 2,027 in 2020. I won’t say he can’t break the record but think if the record is going to get broken then it’s going to be by a back who is in the early part of his career… most likely in his third or fourth year at the latest. And I think Henry’s workload through his eight years in the league and the fact he ain’t getting any younger just works against him setting the record.  Plus, being with Baltimore with a QB who likes run with the ball a lot also means he might never get the ball enough times to have a shot at setting the record.

There are two backs in the game today that given the chance… meaning their team will use them in a workhorse fashion and hand off the ball to them frequently… could break the record, and  maybe do it in 2024.

The Colts’ Jonathan Taylor and the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley.

Barkley first…

In my opinion Barkley was never used properly in the Giants’ offense. First, I don’t think he ever had a top level OL blocking for him so he could break free for big gainers. And second the Giants game plans just never had Barkley getting the ball often enough where he could even come close to thinking he could break the single season rushing record. That could dramatically change with Eagles. If the Eagles use him in the right manner; hand the ball off to him 25 or more times a game then I think with his physical ability and talent and that he’s still young enough (27) that he could have a shot at getting not over 2,000 yards on the ground this year and have a shot at Dickerson’s record.

As for Taylor…  

He is just 25… and… the Colts tend to use him in a way that could enable him to get to within having a sporting chance of breaking Dickerson’s record.

In 2021, his second year in the league, the Colts handed the ball off to him 332 times and he ran for a league leading 1811 yards.

Assuming Taylor can stay healthy, and if the Colts’ game plans have him getting the ball even more often than he did in 2021 (league leading 332 times), then I think he could be a real candidate to gobble up yards this season and have a shot at Dickerson’s record, also.

2) After all the uncertainty and drama involved it appears as if the San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk isn’t going nowhere as the team and he have agreed to a front loaded four-year contract extension worth $120 million that will pay him $47 million between now and April 1, 2025. 

Now…

A recent CBSSports.com article said that with the signing of Aiyuk the 49ers now have their top playmakers… along with Aiyuk, RB1 Christian McCaffrey, WR2 Deebo Samuel and TE1 George Kittle under team control for at least two more years. But that after this season, and assuming he continues on his present NFL course and keeps developing his skills as an NFL QB, Brock Purdy will be eligible for a significant new deal and pay raise. And that deal could be the biggest deal in NFL history, which would require the 49ers to have to do some manipulation of their present player payroll to find the money to pay “Mr. Irrelevant.”  

With that in mind, the CBS article makes the point that the 49ers will save $9,057,529 in salary cap space by trading Deebo Samuel in 2025. And that the “… bottom line is that with the Aiyuk extension and the looming Purdy extension, Samuel should be on the move.”

Will the 2024 season be Deebo Samuel’s last one in a 49ers uniform? Will the 49ers trade Samuel before the 2025 regular season schedule begins in money saving salary cap move? Why or why not?  

Is it possible the 49ers will keep both Aiyuk and Samuel for the long haul?

Sure it’s possible. Word is that HC Kyle Shanahan likes Samuel and what he brings to game day a lot. And Shanahan’s opinion carries a lot of weight in who is on the team and who is not. So if Shanahan insists on keeping Samuel, the 49ers would probably keep him.

But in this salary cap league that probably won’ for the long term. Especially if, as the question mentions, the 49ers chose to pay QB Purdy at the level of being a top 5 QB in the NFL.

Which means that if that occurs then I think the 49ers will go to Samuel and ask him to take a pay cut through the restructuring of his current deal.  If he refuses that then he will in all likelihood be a gone guy.

File this under “To Be Determined.” But, if I was a betting man, I would place a small wager that in the 2025 season Deebo Samuel will not be a 49er.

3) Assuming Aaron Rodgers stays healthy for the upcoming season the AFC East should be very competitive with three of the teams… Bills, Dolphins and Jets… competing for playoff spots.

It isn’t totally impossible, but in all likelihood, three teams from one division are not going to be in this year’s NFL playoffs.

Will the 2024/25 season mark the first time in six years that the Buffalo Bills will miss the NFL’s postseason? Why or why not? 

This season I believe the AFC East is going to be very competitive this season between the Bills, Dolphins and Jets. In fact I don’t see any of those three teams sweeping the their divisional series games this season. Now, add in some out of the division game losses to each team’s season win totals and that will play a lot into who wins the division and who gets possible Wild Cards.

And I just do not see three teams coming out of the East and making the playoffs.   

And if I had to pick a team to not get into the playoffs from the East then I’m thinking it will be the Bills.   

As great a QB as Josh Allen is… he is going into his seventh season and is coming off another top-five MVP finish… Allen still needs playmakers to get the ball to so the team can score and win games. And I just don’t believe this Bills’ team  has enough of those playmakers… especially at wide receiver… for Allen to connect with so the team can score enough to win enough games to beat both the Dolphins and the Jets for the division title or to be a Wild Card.

4)  In the off-season the Dallas Texans made moves to strengthen their offensive playmakers around star QB CJ Stroud. One of those moves was acquiring Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills, giving the Texans three receivers who are very capable of being the number one receiver in any game this season, in Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. And all of whom are playing with a quarterback in Stroud who loves to spread the ball around during games and going with the hot hand as it presents itself.

There have only been five instances in NFL history where one team has produced three receivers that all hit the 1,000 receiving yards mark in the same season…

Will the Dallas Texans become the first team since the 2008 Cardinals to have three players all hit 1,000 receiving yards this season? Why or why not?  

Dell is going into the second year of being in the league and has from his rookie season a year where he caught 47 balls for 709 yards. Dell was on his way to smashing every Texans rookie receiving record before suffering a season-ending injury in early December.

Collins, entering his fourth NFL season, finally fulfilled his potential by catching 80 of Stroud’s passes for 1,297 yards. having 1.297 with a 1,200-plus yard season as C.J. Stroud’s go-to target.

Then there’s Diggs, who was acquired from Buffalo this offseason for a future second-round pick. Since 2018 Diggs has simply recorded six straight seasons of catching passes for at least 1,000 yards or more.

Now…

Dell’s 5-foot-8 and 165-pound frame raises durability concerns, as evident by his Week 13 season-ending leg injury. Prior to that injury he had already missed a game in Week 5… Collins missed 12 games in his first three seasons and at least two a seson since 2021… Diggs has been the healthiest of the bunch, playing in 16 games every season that he played for Buffalo… so assuming that these three can stay healthy then Stroud may well be throwing to the most talented trio of reivers in the NFL. That combined with the Texans revamping their arsenal of offensive weapons for Stroud to use this season along with the prevailing feeling that the Texans will open up the playbook for Stroud to attack the opponent’s defenses, makes me feel as if it is very likely that the Texans will have three receivers with at least 1,000 receiving yards in 2024.

5) The NFC East has gone 20 years without a repeat champion. The last team to pull off the feat was the Philadelphia Eagles when they won three division titles in a row from 2003-05.

The Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East last season…

This season, will the Dallas Cowboys repeat as the NFC East champions? Why or why not?  

Nope.

Not gonna happen.

The Eagles are coming back strong this season with a newly designed offense that will feature Saquon Barkley in their backfield to help take pressure off of QB Jalen Hurts.  

I expect both Hurts and Barkley to have big seasons in leading the Eagles to capturing the NFC East title.