NFLRT 9/27/2024

   

The questions and discussion…

1) On Monday Night Football in Week 3 the Bengals and Jaguars wanted to avoid staring the NFL season with 0-3 records. And both teams, who were pre-season picks to be in the AFC postseason, lost and remain winless going into Week 4.

The Bengals and Jaguars join the Titans as the only three teams to start ’24 at 0-3. But However, unlike Cincinnati and Jacksonville, rebuilding Tennessee wasn’t expected to compete for either an AFC division title or a wild-card berth this season.

History is stacked against 0-3 teams making the playoffs and the Bengals and Jaguars trying to save their seasons is an extremely long shot at best.  

The good news for Bengals and Jaguars fans is that “yes it has been done before. The bad news is there are only six teams to have ever done it… and only four of 162 teams that started 0-3 (2.5%) have done it since 1990  with only one pulling it off since 2000.

In your opinion can either the Bengals or the Jaguars still make the 2024/25 playoffs? Why or why not?

With the absolute dud of a performance by the Jacksonville Jaguars, I can’t see any way in which they’ll make the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t look comfortable as the Jaguars’ quarterback this season, hasn’t won a game in eight straight games, and their defense got absolutely obliterated in the first half by Josh Allen who had five different players score touchdowns (four passing, one rushing). and would’ve been more if the second half wasn’t a release from the gas pedal. They didn’t look good in Week 1 after giving up a 14-0 lead to the Miami Dolphins. They didn’t look good against the Browns, with Deshaun Watson going 22-of-36 for 186 yards and looking like he might rebound after an awful Week 1. However, the Jaguars have shown that they are just a bad football team.

The Bengals, however, can still pull out a Wild Card slot and compete for the AFC North division. While they didn’t give up a punt or force a turnover to the Commanders (first time since 1940 that either team turned it over or punted in a game), they were able to play the Chiefs very tight showing some promise. The Burrow-Chase connection seems to be back in full swing and once Tee Higgins gets back in rhythm with Joe Burrow, I think you’ll start to see a lot more success on offense. They need a better rushing attack, but Zack Moss has been sufficient so far. I think the Bengals are much better than their 0-3 record has shown, and they’re notoriously slow starters, so I take Week 1 with a grain of salt. I think Cincinnati is going to rebound and enter the playoffs. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are not making the playoffs this season.

The Jaguars began the season by losing to Miami an Cleveland by a combined 8 points with their defense keeping both teams from scoring over 20 points. Suggesting that maybe the Jags weren’t as bad as many pre-season “experts” predicted that they would be this year. The problem with them losing these two games was due to their ineffective offense than anything their defense did.

QB Trevor Lawrence looks completely out of sync with his receivers, and he currently ranks at or near the bottom of all relevant QB statistics… he’s competed just 52% of his passes (30th) for 560 yards (25th) and has found the end zone only twice. A look at his complete statistical picture so far and its apparent Lawrence doesn’t look one bit like the starting franchise QB he’s supposed to be.

Then Week 3 and Buffalo happened.. .and everything went to hell in a handbasket in a hurry. They failed on both sides of the ball in losing the game 47-10. Buffalo’s franchise QB Josh Allen shredded the Jags defense going 23/30 for 263  yards and 4 TDs while a missing Lawrence looked like a mess.    

Jacksonville is 1-9 since getting out to an 8-3 start last year and throughout it all their offense has looked like crap. The Jags this season? Stick a fork in ‘em, they’re season is all but in toilet already.

The Cincinnati Bengals still have a shot…

First,… Cincy for whatever reason seems to start off every season in the hole and this year they have played up to that reputation.

They got upset by a surprising Patriots team 16-10 in the season’s opener; lost by a point (26-25) to the defending Super Bowl champs KC  before running into the Washington Commanders and QB Jayden Daniels who right now is looking like the early favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors and losing 38-33. Daniels had answers for everything the Cincy defense threw at him as he finished the game going 21 of 23 for 254 yards and set the NFL rookie record for completion percentage at 91.3%. Plus the Commanders (2-1) scored on every possession except for kneel-downs at the end of each half and didn’t punt the ball once and were turnover free… in a word the Cincy defense… “sucked.”

But…

QB Joe Burrow looks as if he has come back in fine fashion from his devastating injury that had him on the IL last year… he aha 70.9% completion rate (8^th) for 746 yards (8^th), 5 TDs (6^th) and 0 INTs (1^st).

Part of Cincy’s early problems is their run game is not complementing their pass game and presently rank 27^th with just 268 yards.

They get that run game going and Burrow keeps doing what he’s been doing and above all their defense needs to tighten things up and not give up 30 point games, then Cincy still can be a playoff tram this season.

But Cincinnati needs to start winning right now starting in Week 4 against prime a candidate in the Carolina Panthers.

2) So far this season the Pittsburgh Steelers have given up 10 points or less in each of their first three games, making them just the fifth team since 2000 to pull off that accomplishment.

Is the fabled Steelers “Steel Curtain Defense” back in all its dominating glory in Pittsburgh? Why or why not?  

The Steelers have been known for their defense for multiple years, and as long as TJ Watt is continuing to apply pressure at the line of scrimmage, the Steelers’ defense is going to be up top.

They’ve allowed ten or fewer points in the first three games this season, which hasn’t been done in Pittsburgh since the 1973 Steelers. They are allowing 229.6 yards per game (first in NFL), 71.3 rushing yards per game (third), and 158.3 passing yards per game (sixth) with them absolutely smothering the Chargers’ offense, allowing -5 yards in the second half on Sunday.

They also allowed only 44 yards on 19 carriers by JK Dobbins, who was the leading rusher coming into the game on Sunday. The Steelers have had three forces from the front, to the secondary to the corners.

Steelers’ Steel Curtain Defense is back, and they’ll ride them & Justin Fields until the wagon falls apart. 

The Steel Curtain defense was in my estimation one of the best NFL defenses I have ever seen bar none. That’s high praise but deservedly so… but in the late 1970’s it was that defense that very arguably was the biggest reason the Steelers  dynasty of that era was born which won four Super Bowls (IX, X, XIII, and XIV) in six years.

In 1976 when it all started the team began 1-4 and saw starting QB Terry Bradshaw on the IL. In the remaining 9 games of that season the defense recorded 5 shutouts and only allowed 2 touchdowns (both in a single games), and 5 field goals. That defense allowed an average 3.1 points per game and the team had an average margin of victory of 22 points… 8 of the Steelers’ starting eleven defensive players were selected for the Pro Bowl that year, and 4 wound up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

For this Steelers defense to even be mentioned in the same breath as the Steel Curtain Defense is maybe just a tad on the early side right now but…  

This team is off to fine start in trying to replicate that classic defense and a big reason why the Steelers are sitting at 3-0… they are first in overall defense (3^rd against the run and 6^th against the pass) with 4 INTs (3^rd) and a fumble recovery an of course just those 10 points or less in each of their first three games.

Let me see them maintain that level of defense over the rest of the season and maybe then I’ll say they have a case to say that the Steel Curtain is back in Pittsburgh.

3) In the New York Giants’ Week 3 upset of the Cleveland Browns, the Giants’ rookie receiver Malik Nabers made history when he had 8 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs to give the wideout 23 receptions passes for 271 yards and 3 TDs this season to make him the first player in NFL history with at least 20 receptions and 3 TDs in his first three career NFL games.

If Nabers continues on his present All-Star level of play this season, will his performance save QB Daniel Jones’ job as the Giants’ starting QB?

Dan: While I don’t think anybody except Daniel Jones will save Daniel Jones’ job, Malik Nabers is definitely going to help save his quarterback’s job.

He’s the top rookie wide receiver, who has absolutely exploded into the league through three weeks… 23 receptions, three touchdowns, 271 yards (11.8 yards per reception) through three weeks so far.

He had two incredible catches for the touchdowns against the Browns, which other receivers might have let fall or been incomplete by not keeping their feet in-bounds to complete the catch. He’s going to keep going until he can’t anymore, but the competition is going to get tougher as opposing defenses focus harder and all their attention on him since they don’t have a lot of other options, including lacking a running game since Saquon Barkley departed in the off-season. 

Joe: I agree with Dan that whether or not Jones is the Giants QB beyond this season this year is all on his shoulders and no one else’s. BUT

Having one of the best wideouts to come into the league can’t hurt. In the limited time I have seen him play I am totally impressed with his footwork and how he keeps those feet in bounds when making some very acrobatic sideline catches. And right now as a pass catcher in the NFL he has 35 receptions on 52 targets for almost 100 yards a game (96.5) and a league leading 386 yards total.

Malik Nabers may not save Jones’ job, but he won’t lose it for Jones either… not with the level of play he is exhibiting so far.

4) After a dominating game on both sides of the ball versus the Houston Texans, the Minnesota Vikings are now 3-0 on the season. A big reason for the Vikings hot start is the performance of QB Sam Darnold. Simply put, Darnold has been at, or near, the top of all the key quarterback statistics… he currently leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (8), ranks second in passer rating (117.3) and is fourth in yards per attempt (8.4). With Darnold’s stellar QB play setting the tone for the Vikings offense, it in turn has set up  the team’s defense to dominate games late… they are averaging 28 points on offense while giving up just 10 on defense. 

After Darnold, who was the Jets’ overall 3 pick in the 2018 draft, “failed” horribly with New York, why is he suddenly thriving in Minnesota now?  

And…

Is this early dominance over the Viking’s opponents sustainable for them over the long haul of the entire season? Why or why not?

Sam Darnold is thriving in Minnesota because of Justin Jefferson and Kevin O’Connell.

Playing with a lead has also helped, but Kevin O’Connell has imputed a perfect offensive scheme for Sam Darnold to make plays that fit. He’s been on fire with accuracy, been making plays, and Aaron Jones has been a great complement since coming over from the Green Bay Packers in the off-season.

A big benefit for the Vikings’ quarterback has been facing Brian Flores’ defense through training camp and every week in practice. With how the defense has shut down the 49ers, flustered CJ Stroud and the Texans’ offense last week, it’s not a surprise to me that Sam Darnold has been able to have success and not let opposing defenses scare him or force him into bad decisions.

Justin Jefferson helps a lot too.

However, I don’t think this success is long-term sustainable. What we’ve seen from Sam Darnold in the past, where he makes errant throws, bad decisions and looks panicked will come back around at some point. Aaron Jones missing some time will come around soon. The defense will have an off day or two and teams will figure out how to combat Brian Flores’ scheme. I don’t think the Vikings can have this last all season, but I think we should all enjoy the success Sam Darnold is having early in the year. 

With the Minnesota offense seemingly designed to fit with Darnold’s skill set he has so far started the season hot… he leads the NFL in TD passes (8), while going 58 out of 78 (67.9%/15^th) for 657 yards (14^th) against only 2 INTs.

Where was this Sam Darnold when he was a Jet? (Yeah, I’m a Jet fan.)

That’s the good news for Minny and Darnold.

The bad news may be coming soon however as staring in Week 4 they  begin a four game stretch with some decent teams that have some very decent defenses… Green Bay, New York Jets, Detroit Lions and LA Rams.

If they come out of this at least 2-2 and keeping down the scores and Darnold keeps having success then maybe they can sustain this level of play over the entire season. But I have a sneaking suspicion reality begins this week for Minny as the other Sam Darnold suddenly reappears and both he and the Vikings come back down to earth and the NFC North becomes a three-way fight between Minny, Green Bay and Detroit.

5) Yeah it’s still early, but as the NFL season heads into Week 4…

Which off-season free agent signing has been the most successful to this point? Why?

There’s two free agent signings that stand out to me that are excellent, and I’ll pick one from each side of the football.

Xavier McKinney for the Packers has been fantastic. He has three interceptions in three weeks (one in each game) and has really limited opposing defenses throwing against him. He’s been a big part in the improvement of the Packers’ defense, as well as Jeff Hafley taking over Defensive Coordinator duties. Getting a high-flyer who can catch and disrupt passes is great while there’s a fantastic pass-rush in Green Bay. It’s a steal deal to improve a defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last season. 

On offense, there’s a no-brainer pick in Saquon Barkley, who has saved the day in Philadelphia for two weeks (and was a slight letdown in Week 2 when he dropped the clear first-down pass that let Atlanta get the ball back and move right down the field to win the game). Last week, he was the only player to really have any success in their win over the Saints. In Week 1, he ran all over the Packers’ defense in scoring three touchdowns. The Giants (who had both my picks leave) look idiotic in not paying Saquon Barkley to stay with the team. He has five total touchdowns on the year (four rush, one receiving), 351 rushing yards on 63 carriers for an average of 5.6 per carry, which is incredible to maintain. Add another 53 receiving yards on ten catches and he’s been a tremendous part in the Eagles’ offense, especially with the loss of AJ Brown after he suffered a hamstring injury that’s kept him out the past two weeks. What a steal. 

I’m going with Saquon Barkley going to Philly.

He leads the NFL with 351 rushing yards (5.6 per attempt/117 per game) with 4 TDs and 0 fumbles and is second in total yards from scrimmage (404 yards) and is in my mind is the biggest reason why Philly is in a tie of the NFC East lead at 2-1.

Giants were fools to let him go… imagine him paired with Malik Nabors on tha team right now?

Now that could have been a game changer for the Giants and maybe a job saver for QB Daniel Jones.