NFLRT 8/23/2024

The questions and discussion…

1) Since tearing his ACL last November the New York Giants Daniel Jones played in his first game this past weekend and on his first throw nearly got picked off. On first three drives of the game he did throw two INT, with one looking especially bad when he tried to avoid a safety; threw the ball away and into the arms of a defender who returned it for a pick six.

He did wind up finishing his work for the day by going 11 of 18 for 138 yards in the first half of the game.

Will Daniel Jones be the Giants starting QB in game 1 of the regular season? Why or why not?

And…

If Jones is the starter at the onset of the season, will he finish it as the team’s starting QB? Why or why not?

Daniel Jones is going to be the starting quarterback for the Giants to come out Week 1. The biggest reason for this is that it’s a make-it-or-break-it season for Daniel Jones. They have Drew Lock behind him. I don’t think he’s a starter, or the starter that the Giants want. He’s a quality back-up, but I don’t think he’s going to be a big difference maker at the quarterback position for the season.

Daniel Jones will also finish off the season as the starting quarterback for the Giants, so long as he’s healthy.

However, I think if Daniel Jones does have another poor season, they will not extend him past this season and hit the drawing board when it comes to their quarterback position. How Daniel Jones contract situation is, he’s only guaranteed this season. After this season, there is an out clause in the contract, which will allow New York to release or cut him with no penalty past 2024-2025 season. While he did have a breakout year before signing this extension, last season was very rough. And while I could credit his poor seson to having limited options at receiver and a non-existent offensive line, the reality was that Daniel Jones just looked lost and scared in the games he did play last season. It wasn’t good. He needs to do a complete 180 turn-around this year, and it’s going to be tough with only Malik Nabers as the big addition, losing Darren Waller to retirement and Saquon Barkley going to division rival Philadelphia.

Daniel Jones will last this season, but not past. 

Daniel Jones will be the Giants starting QB when the regular season begins.

The main reasons being…

Since returning from his ACL injury Jones hasn’t missed a single training camp rep which means he is fully recovered from his surgery and healthy.  

The Giants passed on going after a young stud QB in the draft which means that one less worry for Jones about who might be coming for his job… kinda, sorta reinforces his sense of security.

And the only other QBs in the Giants camp worth mentioning are Drew Locke and Tommy DeVito. Locke has been fighting nagging injuries throughout the Giants camp and, regardless of whether he has been given a fair chance or not to be a starter elsewhere (that’s a discussion for another time), his history is that he is essentially back-up QB who can step in as the starter if necessary. DeVito is a third-string QB and is nothing more than that… a third-string QB. The only way he starts the first game of the season is if both Jones and Locke are down with injuries.

The Giants front office is publicly saying that they are not looking to sign any available NFL experienced  QBs… that they are content with who they have in camp.  

All those things combined indicates to me that Jones is right now the best choice the Giants have on their roster to be their starting QB.

And finally I think the 2024 season is a make-it-or-break-it year, not only for Jones, but also for head coach Brain Daboll and GM Joe Schoen.

As goes Jones so will go Daboll’s and Schoen’s careers…at least as far as being unemployed by the Giants.

And in my opinion, with what I have seen so far of Jones in pre-season… and what I have seen of his career in the NFL… I’m not convinced Jones is a starting NFL QB. And frankly, Daboll and Schoen rolling the dice and going with Jones isn’t the  best choice those two guys could have made for the team as they began preparing for the 2024 season.  

I predict Jones will stay healthy for the season but has, at best, a mediocre seson and the Giants miss the playoffs and all three men will not be Giants for the 2025 season.  

2)  News recently broke that during the Minnesota Vikings preseason opener versus the Las Vegas Raiders that rookie QB J.J. McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus that will require surgery, and he would be lost for the 2024/25 season.  

What does this injury mean for the Vikings future at the QB position… how does it affect the development of their search for their next franchise QB? Why? 

I think JJ McCarthy losing this season is actually going to be beneficial for the Vikings’ development of their quarterback position as well as JJ McCarthy’s development. He gets to see this season on the sidelines. He gets to listen in on all the calls, ask the necessary questions, and get a full understanding of what calls are made, how they’re made, and why they’re made. He gets to see different formations from the sidelines, based on calls, and how Sam Darnold will switch off based on what defensive formation is opposite. This is going to be a great year for McCarthy to soak up all the information to be best prepared for next year.

I’m a huge proponent of sitting quarterbacks a year, if you can afford it, and let them soak up all the information not from experience, but from watching and learning. It won’t hit their confidence, but actually help the confidence. It’ll give them the best tools and mindset to succeed for the future. 

It forces their hand as to who their starting QB will be.

And right now that means Sam Darnold appears to be their best in-house choice to be that guy.  

It should be interesting for Darnold…. Given the chance to be out of New York and getting the start in Minnesota, will he revive/jump-start his career similarly to how Geno Smith revived his career in Seattle.

But as far as the Vikings future plans at getting their franchise QB…

Nothing should change for McCarthy’s immediate future with the Vikings. As long as his rehab goes according to plan, and he is healthy going into next season, he should get every opportunity to win the starting QB job for the 2025 season.

His 2024 season can be spent soaking up as much information as he can from watching games and being by the coaches side during those games soaking up as much as he can about how the game is played at the NFL level.

3) Between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields does it really matter which player starts at QB for the Steelers this season? Why or why not?

Between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, I don’t think it matters all that much for the Steelers. However, it’s very important for both players.

Russell Wilson wants to redeem himself and end his career on a high note. Wilson needs to rebound after a tough, short stint with the Denver Broncos in which he didn’t really have his strengths, looked bad, and left the Broncos in a bit of a pickle with their finances as well as their future. However, I think this is going to be a true test for Wilson to see if he still has it. Can he still move around and make plays on the run like he used to? Can he push the Steelers further past what Kenny Pickett was able to do? Can he improve the position?

Speaking of Fields, he wants to win it to prove that he’s the quarterback everybody thought he could have been coming out of Ohio State. He wants to redeem himself after disappointment in Chicago, doubt among the front office and the league. He wants to show the league that he can make reads immediately at the line of scrimmage and be a long-term starting quarterback in the NFL. If he sits this season, or comes out and plays poorly like before, he will be relegated to back-up quarterback status for his career, unless he has a redemption year and opportunity like Geno Smith received in Seattle.

I think the Steelers want both quarterbacks to excel and prove the doubters and previous two seasons as wrong. However, I think both quarterbacks are very similar quarterbacks at this point of their careers and it’s going to end up being a coin toss on who the Steelers should start. 

Frankly, no. I don’t think so.

Regardless of which guy starts the Steelers games HC Tomlin, with his extensive experience coaching in the NFL,  will manage the team’s offensive personnel to best fit with whichever QB that he decides he is going with to start the Steelers’ games.  

And if I had to guess then I would say that Wilson starts in the early going but if he and the team don’t get off to a decent start then Tomlin will not hesitate to bench Wilson and insert Fields.

I’m not sold on Wilson and I have a feeling Fields winds up being the starter before all is said and done for the 2024 season.

4) Which NFL team has the best combination at the running back (RB1) and the wide receiver positions (WR1 and WR 2)? Why?

The best running back/wide receiver combos in the NFL belong to the Texans, as far as number one running and number one/two wide receivers. However, I think the overall position group combos belongs to the Packers, since they don’t have a true number one, two or three wide receiver and they have Josh Jacobs with Lynch and Dillion behind him. But, as far as the question is concerned, it only limits the top running back option (who is Mixon in Houston), and the top two wide receiver options (which is Collins and Diggs in Houston).

Mixon was excellent for the Cincinnati Bengals since he came out of college. Last season was a little bit of a disappointment, but he will be able to redeem himself in a high-powered offense to let him get a lot of success in both the running game and passing game. He’ll be opened up in the running game because the Texans haven’t had a reliable running back in some time, and he’ll have CJ Stroud to offset the defense with his ability to throw deep and throw consistently for big yardage after an explosive rookie season. Collins has been a stellar quarterback assistant for Houston since coming into the league, and usually has been a little underrated until last season. Add him with Stephon Diggs, who I think just needs a new change of scenery to improve his situation and that’s going to be a scary trio. CJ Stroud will get the ball to Diggs. He has Collins and Tank Dell to differ the top corners from covering him each play. He should be able to get into more action and get the ball more. This should be an overall better situation for Diggs to improve chemistry, his attitude and overall situation. The Houston Texans are going to be a scary offense this season. 

I’m going with the Eagles…

WR1 is AJ Brown. He is a Pro-Bowler with back-to-back near 1,500 yard seasons… 1,456 in 2023 and 1,496 in 2022.

WR2 is DeVonta Smith. He is entering his fourth year i the NFL and has never had season with less than 916 yards (his rookie season) and is coming off back-to-back seasons of 1,000+ yards.

RB1 is Saquon Barkley. Even in a supposedly down year last season, with a terrible Giants team that had a crappy offensive line and where he only got into 14 games he still almost ran for 1,000+ yards. If used properly Barkley will produce close to 1,300 or more yards and another fair amount of yards catching the ball. In his 2018 Rookie of the Year season he had 1,307 yards rushing and another 721 yards through the air for a league leading total of 2,028 yards from scrimmage.  

With these three payers I think the Eagles have the best running back (RB1) and the wide receiver positions (WR1/WR2).

5) In recent columns NFLRT has been paying a lot of attention to the offensive rookie class for the upcoming season…

Turning to the other side of the ball…

Who is your preseason leading candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year? Why?

Defensive Rookie of the Year for 2024-2025 season is coming from the Minnesota Vikings and same college as last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year. Dallas Turner is going to win the award.

He’s an incredible talent, didn’t lose a step but got even better when Will Anderson Jr turned pro, and he has been put in a perfect situation with defensive guru Brian Flores coaching him. He’s a little inexperienced with his hand placement, certain moves to get around defenders and by knowing blocking schemes and how to counter. However, he was still a first-round pick in an NFL draft, and one of the best defenders in the draft.

If he still needs to hone his craft and has some weaknesses, yet was rated that high, just think about how scary Turner can actually be when he develops all those skills.

I think he’ll start off slow in the first couple of weeks, but I believe he’ll become so strong by week 7-8 that he will pull himself away from the competition and win this award.

What also helps is that he has Jonathan Greenard on the front, and will be pass rushing opposite Andrew Van Ginkel, who had a lot of success in Miami. That combination is a recipe for success for Dallas Turner. Look for him to have a fantastic season and be a constant disrupter in the backfield to opposing quarterbacks. 

I like the Rams’ OLB Jared Verse.

Verse has tremendous power and explosiveness and one on one is usually never going to be outmuscled by an opposing offensive player. All of these qualities should help him pile up the sacks. And his ability to defend the run ain’t exactly lacking either.  

All in all I see Verse as being the frontrunner for the DROY award this season.