NFLRT 7/5/2024

The questions and discussion…

1) If it is assumed that Patrick Mahomes is the NFL’s top QB…

Which player is the second best QB in the NFL? Why?

Second-best quarterback in the league is Joe Burrow. He’s not only gone toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes almost every season these two have been starting NFL quarterbacks, but he also has 2-0 regular season record and a 1-1 playoff record against him. He limits his turnovers (only 37 in his career) and has led the Bengals to massive success in his tenure as their quarterback. There’s nobody else that I think compares to Patrick Mahomes, but Joe Burrow comes extremely close. He has a better completion percentage than Mahomes, but Mahomes beats him in every other category. However, that’s not to take anything away from Burrow as he tops the rest of the league.

Josh Allen is too turnover-happy to be ranked second. Dak Prescott can’t lead the Cowboys past the first round of the playoffs. Justin Herbert hasn’t done anything noteworthy in terms of team success. Aaron Rodgers is on his way to retirement in the next couple of seasons and has seen his better days. Tua isn’t on his level. CJ Stroud could get there, but it’s been one season. Lamar Jackson hasn’t been able to have the playoff success and has been plagued with injuries. Matthew Stafford missed out on opportunities in Detroit, despite getting the ring with the Rams after switching teams. Jared Goff hasn’t proven himself to be in that top echelon and that’s the same for Kirk Cousins. It’s Mahomes’ title, and Burrow wants it. 

Since his rookie season in 2020 Joe Burrow has never had a completion percentage rate under 65.3%.

In the two seasons that he appeared in at least 16 games he has passed for over 9,000 yards… 4,611 in 201 and 4,475 in 2023.

in the 2023 seson before it was cut short due to an injury he was in 10 games; had 2,309 yards and was well on his way to another All-Star level season of probably surpassing 4,000 pass yards and attaining more than 30 TD completions.

Very interestingly and maybe more important in head-to-head matchup versus the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes Burrow has a 3-0 record against Mahomes and the Chiefs where he won each game by a field goal and has 982 passing yards with 8 touchdowns and one interceptions in those three victories including the 2022/2023 AFC title game, where the Chiefs jumped out to a 21-3 lead in the second quarter before the Bengals rallied to outscore Kansas City 24-3 the rest of the game to advance to Super Bowl LVI with a 27-24 overtime win. Burrow is the only quarterback to defeat Mahomes three straight times.

He’s just 27, which leaves the Bengals’ franchise quarterback plenty of time to gain experience and learn and expand his game to an even higher level and who knows possibly be in contention with Mahomes for the best NFL QB in any future given year.

2) A slew of veteran running backs changed teams this off-season…

Of those players which running back will achieve the most success with his new team? Why?

The running back who is going to achieve the most success with their new team this season is Josh Jacobs.

Not only does he come in fully healthy and an entire off-season to rest and prepare for the 2024-2025 NFL season, but he joins a team that has a good crop of run blockers (the Packers’ offensive line strength). He also is going to be bouncing off of a dominant passing game with Jordan Love taking his talents to the next level.

He’s in an offense that likes to run the ball a lot and he has experience leading the league in rushing, as well as taking a heavy load. While I think MarShawn Lloyd will end up splitting carries with Jacobs by mid-season, Jacobs is going to dominant in Green Bay with a new roster structure, a new organization, and a very talented offense that will help him find a lot of open lanes. 

Eagles’ Saquon Barkley.

In Philadelphia, Barkley will have something to his advantage that he never had when he played with the Giants… a chance to run behind what has over recent years has been one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. In addition he will also benefit from the fact that the Eagles have other star playmakers… from Jalen Hurts to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith… to take the pressure off of him to have to be the primary offensive player in every game.  

Simply put in Philly Barkley can most likely have a Christian McCaffrey-type year where he could maybe surpass McCaffrey’s 2023 season when he ran for 1,459 yards, added 564 receiving yards and wound up with an NFL-best 2,023 yards from scrimmage.

Of the running backs who changed team this off-season Saquon Barkley will achieve the most success with his new team.

3) Are Dak Prescott’s and Mike McCarthy’s jobs on the line if the Dallas Cowboys should either fail to make the playoffs or endure another early exit from the playoffs? Why or why not?

I think this question more so pertains to Dak Prescott due to the fact that Mike McCarthy has already expressed his displeasure with Jerry Jones in the past week in recent comments, where Jerry Jones has too much personal and team control for McCarthy’s liking. So even if the Cowboys find success, I’m not sure that Mike is going to stick around after this season when his contract is up.

The player that really needs to see success is Dak Prescott. He has been great during the regular season and has led top offenses in the NFL during the regular season, but when it comes to the playoffs, the team and him crumble. And that’s not a good look. But who are the Cowboys going to find better than Dak at the position? I think they’re in a bind with this one, where they’re banking on success from Dak this season, but face an enormous cap hit on a franchise tag for their franchise quarterback. I think Dak will make it out safe, just without a contract to his liking, with poor results in Dallas, but this is going to be Mike McCarthy’s last season in Dallas, regardless of outcome. 

From the online rumor mill it is sounding as if the marriage between HC Mike McCarthy and owner and de facto GM Jerry Jones is suddenly on some rocky seas and has me thinking that barring any unforeseen circumstances of fences being mended McCarthy is gone from the Cowboys during the next off-season if not sooner.

It’s Dak Prescott that I think has the most to be worried depending upon the results of the new NFL season. And it won’t be based upon the regular season results rather it will be his post-season results tha twill be most crucial in maybe deciding what his and the Cowboys future could potentially be. Because to be fair Prescott usually puts up anywhere from MVP  to near MVP numbers up on a year to year basis. It has been in the playoffs where he tends to stumble and has an overall 2-5 record with three times having years where he led the Cowboys to being a one-and-done playoff team.

I think Prescott needs to get the Cowboys to the NFC Championship game if not the Super Bowl or else his future with the Cowboys could be very rocky indeed.  

4) As the QB for the Seattle Seahawks Russell Wilson was on a path to be selected to the Football Hall of Fame. However after being traded to the Denver Broncos two underwhelming and unsuccessful years seemed to have placed Wilson’s Hall of Fame future into question.

If Russell Wilson at this point in his NFL career is not a Hall of Famer, can he make himself a future Hall of Fame lock if he is able to have success in Pittsburgh? Why or why not?

I think Russell Wilson is on the cusp of the Hall of Fame already and will only need to maintain a status quo in Pittsburgh.

He’s going to find success with Mike Tomlin, and the expectations are a .500 record each season. I think Tomlin knows how to work with Wilson as he’s seen his entire career, so he’ll be able to find avenues for Wilson to see success. Wilson can’t move around as well as he could when he was younger, but that’s his game and Tomlin is going to get him comfortable and get him with a lot of play-action and movement in his offense for Wilson.

I think Wilson needs two-to-three average seasons and he’ll be able to retire and enter Canton, Ohio with a plaque. 

Wilson is probably a border line selectee for the Hall right now. And if he can have a couple or three years in Pittsburgh where he can put up some decent numbers.. at least top ten if not top five among NFL QBs… then he should be an eventual shoo-in into the Football Hall of Fame. Not as a first round selection but none the less he will wind up being a selectee eventually.  

5) A trio of young quarterbacks (Brock Purdy, Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud) took a leap to superstardom in the 2023/2 season.

Which QB (or QBs) will most likely accomplish duplicating that feat in the upcoming NFL season? Why?  

I have a nice list.

I think Jayden Daniels, in Washington, is going to be a top quarterback with both passing and rushing and is going to excel with Dan Quinn as the head coach. He knows how defenses work and is going to make sure he sees the most success out of Daniels and is going to torture defenses with him.

Derek Carr, while isn’t the best quarterback, does limit his turnovers, and is going to have a lot better offensive scheme that should open up Alvin Kamara to excel like how he used to and that’s going to help Carr. Even though I don’t expect New Orleans to compete for a Super Bowl or a top playoff spot, I think you’ll see Carr be among the top ten quarterbacks on the season.

Baker Mayfield, if he isn’t already there, is going to really excel and was able to display his skill and be rewarded by Tampa last season. To bounce off of last season and excel this season with a great crew.

Will Levis is going to have a good season this year as well, and while I don’t think he’s going to be a superstar, he’s definitely going to be one year away after this season.

And the other person who I really think is going to be at the super star level after this season is Anthony Richardson, because he’s a freak of an athlete and is going to be a superstar in this league. He’s fast, he can score with his feet, he has a rocket arm with a lot of accuracy. While he’s very raw, as well, he can absorb everything like a sponge and that means he’s not set in any ways and can really adapt and change and excel and learn. He’s in the best position and is going to be the best quarterback on this list out of the five quarterbacks I mentioned. 

I think Justin Herbert is the most likely quarterback to take the leap in 2024. I expect that new coach Jim Harbaugh to come in and completely change the culture there, turning a team that always underachieves into a winning franchise and enabling Herbert to go from being one of the more talented signal-callers to being one of the best in the NFL.  

Harbaugh will probably have the Chargers playing some very physical football  which will create the opportunity for some efficient and explosive quarterback play. So with Harbaugh designing the offense to provide Herbert with better protection, and then have the pieces around him complementing his talents I expect Herbert to take that leap into being a superstar and have the Chargers playing winning football and going deep into the playoffs.