NFLRT 6/7/2024

The questions and discussion…

1) Which AFC team is the biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs three-peat? Why? 

The biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC is going to be the Houston Texans.

CJ Stroud had an amazing season last year as a rookie, and the offense has only gotten better. While Stroud had to maneuver injuries on the offensive line and the wide receiver corps, they have a healthy offensive line going into the season, and they added a receiver to their depth in Stefon Diggs.

Diggs, despite his reported frustrations in Buffalo, has still been a huge contributor to the Bills’ offense in recent years, recording over 100 receptions in the past two seasons, over 1,100 receiving yards, 19 combined touchdowns throughout the two seasons and a 70.1 catch percentage in 2022-2023 and 66.9 catch percentage in 2023-2024. Having him and Nico Collins lined up next to each other (or opposite sides) is going to really stress the opposing defenses. Not only did they grab another weapon, but they solidified the run game with getting a pure runner who can also be a huge threat out of the backfield in the flat in Joe Mixon.

Last year, with a terrible injury to Joe Burrow, Mixon was working with a back-up quarterback, he still had 257 carries for 1,034 rushing yards, and nine touchdowns. He had 52 receptions for 376 receiving yards and three touchdowns with a 81.3 catch percentage. He’s going to get the majority of carries and snaps in the backfield and is going to take a huge load off of CJ Stroud, opening up the play-action game as well as keeping defenses on their toes from if they’ll throw or pass.

They also improved their defense after last season, when it already showed significant improvements.

I think Houston is a viable candidate to reach the Super Bowl from the AFC this season. 

I’m going to go with a team that some folks might think is a kinda, sorta a long shot.

Especially based upon how they played during and then finished last season when they struggled early with a wounded Joe Burrow (calf) at QB and then with the team at 5-4 lost Burrow due to a wrist injury for the remainder of the season finishing the year at 9-8, last in the AFC North and out of the playoffs.

Yep, I’m picking the Cincinnati Bengals.

I just have this feeling that the Bengals are readying the team to reintroduce the Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase-Tee Higgins show to the NFL and will start off the season in a big way triumvirate putting to rest the disappointment of last season.

Neither Burrow nor Higgins was fully healthy in 2023 and now they are. I expect Burrow and his prime targets in Chase and Higgins are going to be an offensive machine that will continually light up the scoreboard and leave a lot of team on the losing side of things  in 2024. I the end in Cincinnati it all comes back to the quarterback here and when healthy and upright, Burrow is a game-changing fast action all-star.

On top of which the Bengals sort of have the Chiefs number as they are one of the few team since the 2022 season that have winning record against the Chiefs… 3 games to 2.

And I’m saying right don’t be surprised if in the second game of the regular season that the Bengals beat the Chiefs. And even if they don’t I will predict it will be a tightly contested and hard fought game regardless of which team wins with the message being sent to the Chiefs to be forewarned that that down the road expect to see the Bengals in the playoffs where Cincy will have the best chance to put a stop to the Chiefs three-peat hopes.   

Since the close of the 2023/2024 NFL season a total of twelve of running backs in the league changed teams… Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, Devin Singletary, Austin Ekeler, Zack Moss, Antonio Gibson and Gus Edwards… 

2) Which running back who changed teams this off-season will benefit the most… have the most improved season from last season… with his new team? Why? 

The running back who is going to benefit the most is going to be Josh Jacobs.

Not only can he lead the league in rushing as a healthy, everyday back, but he joins an offense that likes to run the ball, likes to throw down, but also is already very solid and only growing. When Aaron Jones was playing and healthy, they enjoyed enormous success. It helped Jordan Love that much more and with how Jordan Love was playing in the second half of the season, he opened up the running game even more. To play off back and forth between the two players, it’s only going to benefit Josh Jacobs.

He’s come into a great scenario, and he can get a lot of the carries at the goal line as well. I think he’s going to be among the top running backs this season overall, so this was a great signing by Green Bay, and a great signing location for Josh Jacobs.

The Eagles’ Saquon Barkley.

If D’Andre Swift was able to rush for over 1,000 yards in 2023 Saquon will easily match and then surpass that number, and not only will he be a league leader in rushing yards, but I predict he will also become a favorite target for QB Jalen Hurts coming out of the backfield and wind up among the league leaders in all-purpose yards gained by the regular season’s end.

The Eagles will do what the Giants either couldn’t or wouldn’t do with Barkley…  offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and QB Hurts will more fully exploit Barkley’s pass-game skills than the Giants. And they will do it frequently and wit great success allowing Barkley to put up some career best numbers in the upcoming season.

3) Which running back who changed teams this off-season will benefit the least… have a worse season from last season… with his new team? Why?

I’m going to go with the running back who just left the Packers in Aaron Jones.

While he’s getting older and can’t seem to stay healthy for a complete season recently, he also joins a Minnesota Vikings’ offense that has two great receivers, but not really a viable back-up option at running back, plus either Sam Darnold or a rookie quarterback starting. And I’ve read very mixed reports on JJ McCarthy so far in mandatory OTAs and rookie mini-camp in how JJ McCarthy is very behind on his development, and that he should be fine to start the season as long as he continues getting reps.

So with an uncertain quarterback situation, and no true back-up option at running back to split carries and not have him get breaks and used 50-60 percent of the time, he’s going to be relied on heavily. And I think Jones is getting older, injury concerns, and isn’t going to enjoy much success. Plus, he’ll be heavily watched and scrutinized because he’s in the same division as his old team and he has to play them two times this season. 

Derrick Henry had an off-season last year.. for him he sort of did… and still wound rushing for 1,167 yards.  

And I’m not saying his 2024 season will wind up being in the toilet, but I have hard time seeing where Henry will get an overwhelming share of the rushing attempts in the Ravens’ offense.

Henry has led the league in carries in four of the past five seasons, including 2023. Assuming QB Jackson will get his usual fair share of the rushing attempts in Baltimore, Henry could struggle to have enough attempts to enable him to even return to the 1,100 yard level he eked by last season

4) A recent CBSSports.com column says that the Cowboys are prioritizing getting a deal done with Dak Prescott, who is in the final year of a four-year contract worth $160 million. 

In the eight years since being drafted by the Cowboys Prescott he has yet to take the Cowboys to the NFC Conference Championship game. Interestingly, it is a fact that no quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl with their draft team after failing to start in a conference championship game through the first eight seasons being in the NFL. While there are five quarterbacks… Joe Theismann, Jim Plunkett, Steve Young, Brad Johnson and Matthew Stafford… who have won Super Bowls with this distinction, they didn’t do it with their draft teams. 

Considering the history for QBs who have played at least eight seasons with their draft team without reaching a conference championship should the Cowboys back off the contract talks with the assumption it probably will never win a title with Prescott? Why or why not? 

Dallas should definitely lock up Dak Prescott for the long-term.

Getting a top quarterback like Prescott is very hard to come by. Teams are scrambling to find the next franchise quarterback. The Packers are one of a kind. Teams don’t find success like that at the quarterback position. Look at the teams currently struggling to find a reliable quarterback. They’re terrible and constantly at the top of the draft season after season. There’s constant turmoil at the quarterback position.

Look at the Atlanta Falcons, for example. Without a solid quarterback option last season, they struggled to really get their offense going and failed to lock up the division that they should’ve won. They had the offensive pieces. Now they went all-in at quarterback, signing Kirk Cousins and drafting Michael Penix Jr.

The Cowboys need to lock up Dak Prescott. He was an MVP candidate last season. He threw for over 4,500 yards and led the league in passing touchdowns with 36. He’s a consistent quarterback that’s going to get the Cowboys in position to compete for a Super Bowl. And that’s worth a lot.

Who else are they going to go get to run their offense? Draft a rookie who’s completely uncertain no matter how much of a “shoe-in” he’s labeled by scouts? Are they going to be able to sign a quarterback who has a better shot at leading them to a Super Bowl than Dak Prescott is? They need to lock him and CeeDee Lamb up for the long-term. 

I’ve said this all during the entire fiasco surrounding the Cowboys getting Dak Prescott’s name on a contract extension… just sign the guy. Give him the money that a QB with his abilities and talents deserves in the going NFL market place or today’s QBs.   

In addition to being the NFL MVP runner-up last seson, Prescott also earned Second Team All-Pro honors for the first time in his eight NFL seasons because he had a career year…. He had career highs in completion percentage (69.5%) and passer rating (105.9); a league-leading 36 touchdown passes, and 4,516 passing yards were the second-best marks of Prescott’s career.

QBs like that don’t grow on trees or are  around for the everyday picking.  

As for that trend of QBs who have played at least eight seasons with their draft team without reaching a conference championship… trends are there to be broken and Dak is the type of QB who can do just that.  

5) JJ Watt, a future Hall of Fame defensive lineman who retired after the 2022 season, says he told Texans coach (and former Texans teammate) DeMeco Ryans last year that he’d “be there” if Ryans was desperate and needed some help on the defensive line. Ryans and General manager Nick Caserio didn’t rule out the possibility of Watt returning, and Caserio has said he is keeping the option on the table.  

What is your take on Watt’s possible return as an active payer to the Texans and the NFL? Can he come back to the game and return to being a dominant player against opposing team’s offenses? Or should he stay retired? Why or why Not? 

JJ Watt returning would be a great addition to the Texans.

Not only will he just provide some depth in the case of injuries, or need, but as one of the best defensive pass rushers of all-time, he can provide a lot of valuable experience and teach the younger players on the roster what he takes to succeed in the league.

He’s suffered through bad seasons. He’s had good seasons. He had a great career. And I think that he can still contribute and play. Not at the same level that he did when he was healthy, but he still works out consistently. He’ll put in the work to make sure he’s ready if called upon. He should leave his options open. You don’t get many opportunities to play football, let alone make a comeback, so this is definitely a great opportunity for both the Texans and JJ Watt. He can still play. He can still contribute. Sign him on if they need some depth help due to injuries, or whatever the scenario is that arises.   

I’m not a big fan of players retiring and then making comebacks.

Most players retire for reasons both said and left unsaid. And part of that reasoning I will assume is due to wear and tear upon their body that they have received from playing the game of football at the highest possible and most competitive level amongst the best of the best who play the game.

I have no doubt that given his combativeness and the level of his talent Watt could probably still give a team some valuable time on the field but why?  

Stay retired… JJ retired for a reason(s) and in my opinion should just stay retired.