NFLRT 6/21/2024

 

 

This week’s questions are…   

1) Last week NFLRT asked… Which QB/WR combination is your choice to end the 2024-25 season as the best duo for the year?

This week the question becomes…

Which QB/RB combination is your choice to end the 2024-25 season as the best duo for the year? Why?

The best quarterback-running back duo of the season is going to be Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs.

I think Jordan Love is going to expand on his great second half of the season last year and put that performance together for a full year and be among the top MVP vote-getters this season. He has it under control. He’s seeing the field better. He has a fantastic crop of wide receivers who are all not true number ones but can fit into the number one role each week and on a play’s notice. There were throws last year demonstrated by Jordan Love that absolutely split the needle. He has the acumen that he needs in order to be a dominant quarterback for now and in the future.

Josh Jacobs is still young and can lead the NFL in rushing yards. He’s a power back that has the speed element that is necessary to excel as a great NFL running back. He also is joining a very good offensive team where he isn’t relied upon as a top offensive player. So he won’t be relied upon as heavily.

And getting both players to bounce off of each other is going to let the Packers’ offense really succeed and scare opponents. They won’t know if they are going to run the ball or throw the ball. And that’s a dangerous element when it comes to defensive game-planning. This Packers’ offense is going to be scary, and the duo of Jordan Love-Josh Jacobs is going to be the best quarterback-running back duo this season. 

Derrick Henry is entering his ninth season in the NFL. Through his first eight seasons, Henry has  amassed 9,502 yards and 90 touchdowns on 2,030 carries. That means Henry averages 254  carries, 1,188 yards and 11 touchdowns per season. In 2021 Henry had 937 yards and 10 touchdowns on 219 carries. Had he stayed healthy and  played all 17 games in 2021, he was on pace for 465 carries, 1,991 yards and 21 touchdowns. Subtracting those 937, Henry’s average yards per year jumps to 1,236.

Lamar Jackson has rushed for 5,258 yards and 29 touchdowns in five and a half seasons. He has two seasons with over 1,000 yards rushing  and has never rushed for fewer than 695 yards in a season, and that total of 695 was when he  took over as the starter in the middle of the season in 2018.

Since Lamar Jackson  became the Ravens starting quarterback, in Week 11 of 2018, Baltimore has finished in the top three in the NFL in rushing yards per game in every season, including leading the NFL three  times.

All of this is to say the Henry and Jackson duo is my choice to end the 2024-25 season as the best QB/RB combination for the year?

2) And the most rushing yards by a QB/RB duo in a single season in NFL history is the 2,428 that were accumulated by Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris for Washington in 2012, who coincidentally were both rookies.

In the upcoming NFL season is there a QB/RB who can surpass the RG# and Morri’s rushing record for a QB/RB duo? And if so which duo is the best choice to break the QB/RB rushing yards record? Why?

I think that a quarterback-running back duo can surpass the 2,428 rushing yards record set by the Washington duo. It only takes 1,250 rushing yards by both a quarterback and a running back.

And there’s the perfect duo in Baltimore that can get it done in Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson is the most prolific rusher in the NFL in today’s game. He had over 800 rushing yards last season and led the Baltimore Ravens in rushing yet again. Derrick Henry had a down season last year, yet still had over 1,100 rushing yards. If you combine the two, they were close to 2,000 rushing yards. Adding a running game to the Ravens is going to help Lamar Jackson that much more. And they have a great chance of hitting this. Henry had almost 1000 rushing yards in a season he only played eight games. This is a dangerous running duo and Baltimore is going to see how great it ends up being this season. This is the year to watch this rushing yards record set by a QB/RB duo.  

See my answer to question 1.

In my opinion Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have an excellent shot at surpassing the 2,428 that were accumulated by Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris for Washington in 2012. In fact I’ll go so far as to say that the Jackson/Henry combination accumulates at least 2500 yards for the 2024/25 season.

3) According to ESPN.com, on Friday (6/14) the Jacksonville Jaguars announced that the team and quarterback Trevor Lawrence had agreed on a five-year extension worth $275 million, with $200 million guaranteed and a $37.5 million signing bonus in a deal that starts in 2026, meaning he will be under contract through 2030.

While there is merit in saying that a player is worth whatever a team/owner is willing to pay that player…

Is Lawrence “worth” this five-year extension and the dollars involved that has been announced by the Jaguars? Or is this a contract that the Jaguars will regret down the line?  Why or why not?

I think Trevor Lawrence is going to end up being worth the contract he signed when it’s all said and done with, but right now, the contract is a little high.

He hasn’t proved a whole lot as quarterback of Jacksonville so far. He had 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last year. He has 58 touchdowns and 39 interceptions for his career. Is that worth one of the richest quarterback contracts in the NFL? I don’t think so.

But is it worth it if that’s what your franchise quarterback is requesting, and you need to keep a quarterback? Yes, which is why I don’t think Jacksonville is going to regret giving him the contract they did. They’re not going to look at this as a bad contract when the contract is up. It’s going to be worth it. Locking in a quarterback that’s a franchise quarterback is a must. You see the teams that struggle to get even semi-consistent quarterback play. Atlanta comes to mind, only a couple hours to the north of Jacksonville. You need to lock up your quarterback when they perform well and can lead the franchise. That’s exactly what Jacksonville did.

While I am a firm believer in the point made in the question that a player is worth whatever some owner is willing to pay him at the same time, I also presently believe that the money being bandied about for QBs that teams hope will have a so-called franchise QB career has gone off the rails.

And frankly the owners/GMs are over spending to lock up those QBs i the hopes he makes it in a big way in the  NFL. And unfortunately now the die is cast so to speak and those salaries for what are mostly QBs in development are sky high and there is no turning back on what teams will be paying for what are really unproven QBs in the hope they have a great career and in the process take their team to a Super Bowl.  

Based on the numbers that Lawrence has accumulated for his career to this point, I  believe Lawrence falls into being one of those QBs who still needs to develop his skills to fit in with playing in the NFL. And in my opinion if I were in charge of making the decision to sign Lawrence I would not have given him that extension or that much money.

4) Tom Brady is the one and only QB with 30-plus touchdown passes in a season at age 40 or older. He is also the only QB to win a Super Bowl after turning 40, and he did it twice.

In the 2024-25 season will the 40-year old (as of December 2, 2023) Aaron Rodgers join this exclusive club with Brady and pass for 30 or more TDs and win the Super Bowl for the New York Jets? Why or why not?

Aaron Rodgers is going to pass for over 30 touchdowns this season. Will he lead the Jets to the Super Bowl is the biggest part of this question. And the answer to this specific question is no.

I think Aaron Rodgers is more focused on other activities. There was the topic about mandatory mini-camp where Aaron Rodgers was a no-show. It caused problems. But he showed up to voluntary activities. I don’t think he has what it takes to win the Super Bowl this season. I don’t think the Jets are one of the best teams in the league. I don’t think they’re going to make the Super Bowl. They have to face the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Bills, Dolphins, Texans all in the AFC who they will certainly face come playoff time. And these teams are dangerous. The Texans have an insane offense. The Bengals have their players all available and their quarterback healthy. The Ravens have finally gotten a running back and were able to bounce back with their additions after losing players this off-season. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and are preparing themselves to go on a three-peat. The Bills are led by Josh Allen and are dangerous, always. The Dolphins are stupid quick and love speed. They struggle in the cold, but if they can grab a home game in the playoffs, and face the Jets, it’s not going to be the best environment for New York. It’s a tough road for the Super Bowl, and I don’t see the Jets making it down the entire route without something falling apart and them being stranded still looking at the Super Bowl.   

Aaron Rodgers will pass for at least 30 TDs this season.

And while he will take the Jets to the post season by either winning the AFC East or getting a Wild Card entry  I don’t think he can get the Jets to the Super Bowl. Regardless of how well Rodgers plays in the playoffs and whether he can have the Jets beating the other playoff teams at some point in the post season it would come down to the Jets having to face the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.   

And I believe Mahomes will win that battle 99% of the time.

 So no Rodgers will not join Brady as the only QB to pass for 30 or more TDs and win the Super Bowl.

5) Recently Yahoo! Sports reported that Tom Brady said, “I think the quarterbacking has gone backwards a little bit in the NFL. I don’t think it’s improved. I don’t think the teaching’s improved. I think maybe the physical fundamentals might be a little bit improved because there’s better information out there for quarterbacks to study on mechanics. But I don’t think quarterbacks really are really field generals right now like they used to be. It’s a broad statement, certainly. But I had total control. I had all the tools I needed. I was coached that way. I was developed to have the tools that I needed to go on the field so that whenever something came up, I had the right play, the right formation, the right audible, the right check at the line — to ultimately take control of the 11 guys on offense and get us into a good, positive play.”

He then added, “I think now, there’s this try-to-control element from the sideline between the coaches, where they want to have the control. And they’re not teaching and developing the players the right tools so that they can go out on the field and make their own decisions that are best suited for the team. When I looked at Peyton Manning he was a guy that I looked up to because he had ultimate control. And I think the game’s regressed in a little bit of that way, based on what’s happened in high school football, college football and then the NFL’s getting a much lesser developed quarterback at this point.”

What are your thoughts about Brady’s opinions regarding the development of  and the status of the QB position in today’s NFL? Why?

I think Tom Brady has some merit as to what he’s saying on quarterbacks. The quarterback game has changed. A lot of rookies seem to struggle in their initial game playing. There’s problems of them seeing the field. There’s problems of them evaluating defenses and audibling to a different play. There’s constantly problems between coaches and quarterbacks when plays differ, or when a quarterback wants to call their own play based on what they see from the defense. I think a lot of the development is getting lost because it was both taught and learned. Tom Brady learned how to read the defenses and what to switch to. Aaron Rodgers does his work at the line as well based on how the defense looks and what he sees presented. He has the experience to know when teams are hiding or disguising defenses. Defenses are also advancing. So it’s tougher, but I don’t think quarterbacks are getting the proper training on this.

The good quarterbacks of the league are able to learn and be flexible. But the overall scheme of quarterbacks? They’re not. Eli Manning wasn’t a great quarterback most seasons, but he knew what the defenses were presenting and was able to lead the Giants to two Super Bowls. There wasn’t as much video then. There wasn’t as much communication then. The coaches had to be left off the plays a lot more. It was more on the players to perform based on what they were taught.

Now? They can review plays on the sidelines. The coaches are heavily involved in every single play, including in the ear of the quarterbacks. It’s a little different now. They have more guidance. They don’t need to be relied upon. And I think that’s okay. As time moves forward, everything evolves. And the NFL, quarterback, coaches, teams, defenses, offenses, all are going to evolve as time moves on. As we get more technically advanced. As teams get better at disguising defenses, as teams get better with fakes and play-actions and motions on offense. It’s all okay, but training has to evolve as well. Developing players has to evolve. And what worked for Brady, won’t work in the future NFL. It’s the way the world works. 

While there may be some merit to what Brady is saying I also believe that there are more than a couple of QBs in the NFL who have the authority to call their own games… string with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson as two QBs who immediately come to mind.

I also think Cousins in Atlanta, Purdy in San Francisco and Tagovailoa in Miami also fall into this scenario.

So while I don’t think there is any QB coming into the league who gets to call his own plays right off the get go, I do think that once a QB has developed the skills to perform in the NFL and proven himself to the coaching staff that he can earn the right to essentially call his own game.

I think Brady is slightly off the mark with his thinking that head coaches in the NFL are mostly a bunch of control freaks who need to be large and in charge of every facet of every game and are not allowing young QBs to develop their skills and earn the trust to call their own games.