NFLRT 5/31/2024

The questions and discussion… 

1) Following the first day of Pittsburgh’s OTAs when Justin Fields was asked about his expected role within the Steelers offense in 2024 he said,  “I’m definitely competing. Russ knows that. We’re competing against each other every day. … I definitely don’t have the mindset of me sitting all year. I’m coming in every day, giving it all I’ve got. Pushing him to be his best and he’s pushing me to be my best every day.”  

In your opinion what are the chances that a healthy Russell Wilson is not the starting QB for the Steelers on opening day of the 2024 NFL season? Why?

I don’t think that Russell Wilson is in jeopardy of losing his starting quarterback position for the start of the season. If we see him struggle mightily and just can’t seem to get it going and the offense is doing nothing like it was for the beginning of last season, then I feel like Mike Tomlin is going to be forced to switch quarterbacks and let Justin Fields get some work in. But I personally think Justin Fields is there merely for depth and in case of an injury on a low-cost option between another low-cost starter for Pittsburgh.

Russell Wilson has a lot of experience in the league. While he didn’t look good in Denver compared to his time in Seattle, I think the Steelers are going to fit their offense to cater around Wilson’s strengths a little bit more than what Denver did and allow him to see the field better. He’s good at throwing it down field and drawing penalties. He’s good at moving around the pocket and seeing the field while he’s on the move. While it’s going to be a little different and slower than what it was when he was younger in Seattle, he can still move a little bit. And they need to get him moving around in the pocket and bring back the field, and offense, to be more comfortable for him.

But I have no doubt in my mind that Russell Wilson is comfortably in the starting quarterback pole position and isn’t in danger of losing it, unless he can’t get their offense going by Week 8/9.  

For the Steelers to turn the corner and become a legitimate team to not only make the playoffs but to go deep into the post-season they needed a QB who could provide the team with competent play at the position.

And as long as Wilson is healthy, and he doesn’t totally soil the bed with his on field performance he provides the Steelers with that level of QB play.

Fields is no longer with the Bears because he couldn’t provide the Bears with consistent QB play and the Bears didn’t want to wait on him developing his on field skills, so they turned to what they believed their best option was to get more consistency from the QB position which was by drafting Caleb Williams. Time will only tell if they made the right decision, but the Steelers took on Fields because the cost to get him was relatively cheap and he does have the talent to eventually be an NFL QB. Now he can sit and learn while Wilson leads the Steelers offense.

All indications are that the Steelers plan to run a ball control game with a strong defense. That’s why they brought in Arthur Smith to be the OC. I fully expect HC Mike Tomlin and OC Smith to design their offense with a lot of play action and running plays to help Wilson highlight his best attributes so they methodically can move the ball down the field while running time off the clock. Then they will turn  the game over to the defense who hopefully will limit the opposition to nada and either by forcing a punt or a turnover get the ball back for Wilson so he can do his game managing ball control act all over again.

Again the only way Fields winds up starting games this season is if Wilson totally sucks and the Steelers are in danger of not making the playoffs.

2) The Houston Texans took the biggest leap in the NFL last season mostly thanks to the emergence of C.J. Stroud at QB and the coaching by first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans. Although the Texans (10-7) made the postseason they were eliminated in the divisional round of the playoffs. 

What is your prediction for the Houston Texans in the 2024/2025 season? Why? 

The Houston Texans are going to win their division.

The Colts are putting a lot of trust in a quarterback who has only played four NFL games. They still need some work on defense, and they need to have their running back, Jonathan Taylor, healthy for the season, which they haven’t had since 2021.

The Jaguars need more consistency out of the quarterback position in Trevor Lawrence and they need to improve their offense all-around. I don’t think the Jaguars are going to really push the Texans for the top spot this season. They have a lot of work to do, especially with their offense looking flat overall last season.

The Titans are rebuilding and putting pieces together on offense for quarterback Will Levis; I don’t think the Titans are complete enough to compete with Houston for that AFC South crown.

The Texans improved their offense even more with the addition of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. That’s going to be a huge part for the Texans and CJ Stroud keeping up his historic rookie pace into his sophomore season by getting him a running game that he didn’t have last season. They also were able to improve their defense and kept pace with the pass rush they had last season. I expect the Texans to make a run for the Super Bowl this season and be one of the best teams in the AFC. 

The Houston Texans are coming off a remarkable first season under head coach DeMeco Ryans who with a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud leading the offense and a rookie edge rusher in Will Anderson Jr. leading the defense soared past expectations to finish 10-7 and win the AFC South. They did with a young and talented team that besides Stroud and Anderson Jr included players such as Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Juice Scruggs.

Also, Stroud gets his top two pass catchers back next season, along with TE  Dalton Schultz who they reigned. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year Anderson Jr. now has full year under his belt and corner Derek Stingley Jr. should only get better to lead a defense into the 2024 season that last year went from 25th in yards allowed per possession to 13th.

They added four-time Pro Bowler DE Danielle Hunter who had  16 sacks for the Vikings last seson and should improve their pass rush attack dramatically. They also further reinforced the defense by signing on DE Denico Autry who had a career-high in sacks (11.5) with 12 tackles for loss with the Titans in 2023. They also added Titans  linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair who HC Ryans is very familiar with due to the fact Ryans was the linebackers coach for the 49ers when Al-Shaair played for them back in 2019-2020. This is going to be a very deep and talented defense that I think will be even better than their number 13 defense from last season.

On offense the Texans resigned their key players to extensions and then traded for four-time Pro Bowl WR Stefon Diggs and veteran RB Joe Mixon. Both players should add immensely to the arsenal Stroud can utilize in the upcoming season.

Mixon (1,034 rushing yards and 12 combined touchdowns in 2023) should pair well with fellow running back Dameon Pierce t ogive HC Ryans a powerful one-two running attack.

And Diggs should be a top option for Stroud to use deep down field.

The biggest drawback for the Texans is that they now  have a first-place schedule and they also they won’t be swooping under anybody’s the radar anymore.

But Stroud having a full offseason to hone his craft and then have a full training camp  to get used to his new weapons on offense will also be something for their opponents to reckon with too.   

I expect the Texans to win the AFC South and make a run to be in the Super Bowl.

3) C.J. Stroud had arguably the greatest rookie season for a quarterback in NFL history. Under his leadership as the QB the Texans offense became a force to be reckoned with throughout the NFL. 

Out of the six quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round of this year’s draft will any one of those drafted players have a similar rookie performance… maybe not history making but at least play at an all-star level… and significantly improve the offense of the team that selected them? Why or why not?

The best chance for any quarterbacks in the 2024 rookie class to put up a performance like what CJ Stroud did last season is going to be Jayden Daniels in Washington. I think he went into the perfect environment having an ex-defensive coordinator as head coach in Dan Quinn to help him develop. Not only is he going to have a lot of fun developing his offense around Daniels, but he can really teach Daniels how to read defenses to the T, seeing different movements, fronts, changes, disguises, etc. His development on reading defenses and seeing things on the field at the line of scrimmage is going to help him excel tremendously in his rookie season.

They added Austin Ekeler at running back to pair with Brian Robinson Jr. on offense to support the run game to make play-action more effective. Ekeler is also a nice addition to the passing game in the dump off pass game and to give Daniels options when the offense line doesn’t hold up their end of the bargain and protect him to the effectiveness that he’s going to be expecting.

They have McLaurin still as their main wide receiver, and he should be utilized a whole lot more effective than in the past couple of seasons getting him consistent looks and treat him more as a true number one.

Jahan Dotson, Jamison Crowder and newly drafted Luke McCaffrey are also weapons for him in the wide receiver room. And they signed Zach Ertz to provide some veteran experience at tight end and drafted a tight end in Ben Sinnott that’s been highly spoke of coming into the draft and after being drafted as one of the best tight ends in the draft.

Daniels has a lot of weapons, he has the coaching tools to help him out, and he has the skill, both passing and running, that’s going to have Jayden Daniels have a breakout season and keep Washington in the NFC East hunt. 

The short answer is “No.”

The more nuanced answer is that if there is any one QB from the six taken in the first round of the draft who will be successful this season it will be the  Commanders Jayden Daniels.

Daniels is one of the most successful dual threat quarterbacks to have played in college ball and he should be able to use those talents to great advantage with a developing offense in Washington.

He’s an intensely hard worker who has a rep for being first in the building and the last one out of it. In fact word for the early Commanders camp is that rep is following him into the pros already. That should serve him well in learning the NFL game and getting familiar with his teammates especially on the offense side of things.

Daniels knows how to punish defenses with his legs as he had 41 runs of at least 10 yards with 565 yards after contact and 51 rushing first downs. But he can also sling the ball down field wit he best of them. He was the best quarterback in college football on passes of at least 20 yards, earning a 99.2 grade from Pro Football Focus in 2023. He wasn’t asked to throw the ball downfield often, with such throws only accounting for 16.6% of his 332 attempts, but his completion rate of 63.6% was the best among quarterbacks with at least 55 deep throw attempts.

All quarterbacks face pressure, and that’s particularly true when you’re an active  playmaker like Daniels. He was blitzed on 39.2% of his drop backs, and there were times when the pressure got to him but still he only took 22 sacks overall in 2023.

However he also had some of his best moments when he was blitzed… he completed 74.4% of his passes, throwing 20 touchdowns to zero interceptions with 10 big-time throws and 1,515 yards.  

The Commanders have needed a player who knows how to perform when plays break down and Daniels can be that guy and be that guy in a big time way.

Daniels will have growing pains as all rookies do, but he also should be the QB from this year’s draft who should have the most success and have the Commanders in the hunt for the playoffs this season.

4) The Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) missed the playoffs last season which arguably can be attributed to the team having to deal with Joe Burrow’s multiple injuries, beginning with the star quarterback’s calf issue in training camp that affected his early-season performance to a wrist injury in November that ended his season. 

Will the Cincinnati Bengals rebound from last season and be a serious Super Bowl contender in the upcoming NFL season? Why or why not? 

Cincinnati will definitely rebound from the season they had last year, mainly because Joe Burrow is supposed to be healthy for the full season. With him not on the field, it completely changed their entire offense. Getting him back leading the offense is going to be a complete difference maker for the Bengals.

They also have a luxury schedule compared to usual years since they finished last in the AFC North. Also, while they did miss Joe Burrow for a considerable amount of time last season and started off very slowly due to him being injured to start the season, yet playing through it, the Bengals still were 9-8. That shows me that the team is ready to compete again and go up against Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore and Houston. Cincinnati is going to be among the top in the AFC North this season, is going to enjoy winning a lot, and they’ll be ready to make a big push come January with the playoffs. 

This one is easy…

Without a doubt with a healthy Joe Burrow coming into the season from the get-go the Bengals will absolutely rebound from their missing the playoffs last season and combined with Burrow’s health and a relative easy slate of games from the NFL schedule maker the Bengals should be one of the teams threatening the Chiefs three-peat. 

5) Which player is your pre-season pick to be the NFL MVP this year? Why?

My early mid-summer pick for NFL MVP for this season is Green Bay Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love.

After having a rough start to his debut season as starting quarterback, he meshed really well in the second half with his receivers and led the Packers into a playoff spot including a huge 48-point performance against the Dallas Cowboys in the first round of the playoffs. He almost took down the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round. In the last nine games of the season last year, he had 20 touchdowns, three interceptions, 2,439 passing yards and turned the Packers’ season around completely. In the last five games of the regular season alone, he had ten touchdowns, one interception, 1,293 passing yards and was over 71 completion percentage.

In their nine wins, he had 20 touchdowns and only one interception. For the second half, especially in wins, he was unstoppable and one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Getting Josh Jacobs at running back, who, when healthy, can lead the league in rushing, along with bringing their core receiver group back and growing with them, it leads to Jordan Love getting ready to have a breakout season this year and really perform for the full season. If he can lead the Packers to the division title, which is completely feasible this year, then he’s going to be a top candidate to win MVP and at this point in this season, I’m selecting him to win the MVP. 

I’m going with Aaron Rodgers to win MVP number five.

I think with the team’s revamped offensive line and the fact he is coming off that devastating injury he personally believes he has something to prove.

And when the season kicks off for real he will have the Jets firing on all cylinders and that when it is all said and done I expect him to among the NFL leaders in most if not all the statistical categories.