NFLRT 5/10/2024

 

The questions and discussion…

1) Various studies have been done on the success rate of QBs who were drafted in the first round and all of them a either totally agree or have statistics that are very similar to a report from Fox Sports that says, “There have been 38 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2011… “Only one of those 38 quarterbacks led their team to a Super Bowl victory: Patrick Mahomes (and) Of these 38 quarterbacks, 10 are still on their rookie deal… Of the other 28, only 11 (39%) were even given a second deal with the team that drafted them. Most were cut or saw their rookie deals expire.” 

It would seem to be fair to say a first round QB could be deemed as a success if he is even given a second deal with the team that drafted him which would also likely mean that he would be that team’s starting QB. 

With this in mind… 

Six QBs were taken in the first round of this year’s draft. 

What is your best guess as to which of these six QBs will have a successful NFL career and be starting games with their original team and be given a second deal… contract extension… either prior to or when their rookie deals are due to expire? Why? 

I think we’re going to see multiple quarterbacks get second contracts with their teams from this year’s large amount of first-round quarterbacks.

I really like Bo Nix in Denver. He fits Sean Payton’s style of play and really reminds me of Drew Brees. He also can throw the ball down field and make big plays, as was evident at Oregon. With a ton of college experience, it usually transfers over to the NFL very well. Perfect fit for Nix and perfect coach who knows how to use that type of quarterback, who is focused on completion percentage. And positive yards is never wrong (unless you absolutely need a set amount).

I think Caleb Williams will have some success in Chicago as he’s been set up with a ton of weapons around him to let him excel. With the Bears’ histories of quarterbacks, I think even mediocre play will have them still give him an extension.

Jayden Daniels is the next superstar out of the draft as a dual-threat quarterback out of LSU and he’ll definitely land a second contract with the Commanders. He’s a dangerous quarterback who can be the next Lamar Jackson, but better.

The final quarterback is Drake Maye. I think he’s an excellent quarterback and is going to excel, even with limited resources around him in New England. I think he’s just a pro type quarterback who was the second best overall quarterback in the draft after Jayden Daniels.  

The draft’s six QBs were Caleb Williams going first overall, Jayden Daniels second, then Drake Maye third, then the big surprise of Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick, J.J. McCarthy tenth and finally Bo Nix with the twelfth pick.

Williams college career was dotted with so-so performances against good defenses. Maybe that could have been a product of a bad OL at USC and yeah, Chicago gives him a much better offensive line as well as overall offense to protect his butt than he had at USC. In short I don’t think he is a lock to be the next Tom Brady or even a Joe Namath for that matter and I wouldn’t be shocked if he is playing elsewhere in the NFL after his rookie deal is over. Still I give him 50/50 odds of being any sort of a success in the NFL and getting a second offer from the Bears.

In 2023 Daniels completed 236 of 327 attempts (72.2%) for 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns with 4 INTs and rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 additional scores. Daniels, on Day 1, should be a dynamic presence as a passer and as a runner. He is  top-grade, big-play generator with his running ability and deep passing chops.

He has  a quick, compact, and efficient release and can flick the ball with little wind-up and he has shown a talent for when to stand in the pocket and when to evade pressure and take off with the ball. All which should serve him well as he embarks on his NFL career. The biggest knocks on him are (1) his size… he is listed at just 210 pounds and some observers say he might measure lighter than that and has a very slender and narrow frame that could invite long-term durability concerns… (2) he can be reckless as a creator and needs to be better about preserving himself at contact and (3) he sometimes tries to do too much on scrambles and can wind up boxing himself in and taking sacks. Daniels still has room to grow and with a new regime in Washington he may have found himself in an ideal spot to do that. I give him a decent shot of getting that second deal in the NFL as Washington’s QB.

Maye led the FBS in big-time throws over the last two seasons (79) and has a manageable turnover and sack rate throughout his career. He makes franchise quarterback throws while limiting negative plays. Maye checks every box from a physical tools standpoint with prototypical size (6-4, 223 pounds) and should adapt well to the NFL style of QB that presently is in the league. Maye fits in with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s offense and is a savvy middle-of-the-field thrower with “A+” arm talent to operate Van Pelts offensive concepts. He is knowledgeable with the pro-style aspects of the NFL game and is considered better than average with using play-action and checking off at the line of scrimmage if he doesn’t like what a defense is showing. Overall Maye fits the NFL mold for today’s quarterback… an elite arm talent, very mobile, and is an aggressive playmaker. If the Patriots can build an offense around Maye I see him being the a franchise QB for the Patriots for years to come. Barring injury I say he is more or less a lock to get a new deal when his time comes.

With three ACL injuries already to his credit every time Penix steps on any field, but especially on artificial turf, it’s going to be a recipe for another ACL injury to occur. If I had to bet I’d say it will probably happen and his NFL career will be either very short or limited to being a career backup.

J.J. McCarthy is not the QB in this draft with the best size nor does he have the most talent of those taken in the first round. But if McCarthy can beat out Sam Darnold for the starting job he will have tremendous weapons to throw to as well las having a very good running back in Aaron Jones to hand the ball off to and mix things up on offense. He’s not a lock to make it as the Vikings next franchise QB but I’ll say he also a 50/50 chance at getting his rookie deal renewed.

Nix played five seasons of college football between stints at Auburn and Oregon and is already 24 years old. At Oregon in 2023 he passed for 4,509 yards, 45 TDs and 3 INTs and finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting. He is an efficient passer who can also take off with the ball when he needs to. He has been compared by many to being similar in his QB style of play to Drew Brees. With Nix going to Denver it should be noted that HC Sean Payton was Brees’ coach in New Orleans. With Nix’s style of play and his high rate of efficiency… he led the FBS with a 77.4%  completion percentage last season… he should fit well with Payton’s offense, and I give him a high mark for getting a second contract when the time comes for the Broncos to renew his rookie deal.

2) After the first round in this year’s NFL draft another four QBs were selected although it wasn’t until the fifth round that another signal-caller heard his name called. 

The Saints took Spencer Rattler (150^th pick); the Jets took Jordan Travis (171^st pick); the Ravens took Devin Leary (218^th pick) and the Packers took Michael Pratt (245^th pick). 

Which one of these developmental QBs has the best shot at sticking with the team that selected them in this year’s draft and eventually be that team’s starting QB? Why?    

I think these quarterbacks have chances of sticking with their teams, and starting due to injury, but the best bet to really start meaningful games for their team will be Spencer Rattler.

He was a great college quarterback. He, unfortunately, lost his starting quarterback job to Caleb Williams and had some problems on a TV series following him in high school and I think that was somewhat the reason of his drop. But I think he can transfer to the NFL pretty well, and I think the Saints are more likely than the other four teams to move on from their quarterback, or have injury problems or just have to make the switch and give him starts.

The Packers are in a super good position with Jordan Love at quarterback for the long-term as their next franchise quarterback, the Jets have Aaron Rodgers, who should play for a couple more seasons. I think the Jets are going to draft their next quarterback or trade for a younger quarterback when Rodgers is going to retire to make sure they have an easy switch at quarterback. The Ravens aren’t moving on from Lamar Jackson for a long time, especially after signing him to a long-term, big money extension, so I don’t see Leary getting any starting time.  

Florida State’s Jordan Travis, who the Jets took in the fifth round, was actually projected to go higher but an ankle injury ended his  2023 season and was the main reason he fell in the draft. But prior to his injury, Travis had the Seminoles at 10-0 and his stats up until that game were 2,756 yards, 20 touchdowns and just 2 INTs. So the talent and ability is there.  

Now with the Jets he gets to sit and learn the pro game from Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor. If he can take what he will learn in 2024 and beyond and then put it into practice, the Jets might just have themselves a draft “steal” who can be the franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future when Rodgers does eventually call it quits. 

3) Recently Patrick Mahomes appeared on “Impaulsive with Logan Paul” podcast and essentially guaranteed that the Kansas City Chiefs would win a third straight Super Bowl when he said, “Next year in New Orleans, we’re gonna do it again. I’m putting it on the table. We’re gonna do it again. I’m telling you now.”  

What are your thoughts about Mahomes’ opinion… his guarantee…  that the Chiefs will three-peat in the Super Bowl? Why? 

When you’ve shown what you can do leading any type of roster, you have to have the confidence that your team is going to win the Super Bowl. Especially as the leader, the quarterback, of the roster, having that confidence and arrogance that you’re going to win the Super Bowl each season is what you want.

They weren’t expected to even get to the Super Bowl, and some people thought they weren’t going to win their division last season, but they won the Super Bowl. With almost no true receiver weapons outside of Travis Kelce, who even had a down year on his standards (until the playoffs), and continuous problems left and right, they still pulled through due to Mahomes and Andy Reid.

The year before that, they went through the playoffs with an injury to Mahomes’ feet/ankles that really hampered him yet they were able to pull it out over the high-flying Eagles. With a little better receiver room (outside of the loss of Rice – who is almost for sure getting suspended, especially after now another case pending against him for violence), I think it’s just going to benefit Mahomes. The league has to shut them down in the regular season, because once it gets to the playoffs, it’s Mahomes and Kelce and Reid time.  

I am a big Patrick Mahomes fan and frankly I love his confidence.  

And so far, for the most part, Mahomes has a history of backing up anything he says with his play on the field.  

I have no idea if the Chiefs can three-peat but with Mahomes under QB with this team I wouldn’t bet against them doing it whatsoever. 

4) On Friday news broke that the Miami Dolphins had agreed to a one-year deal with wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.,  adding him to a crowded wide receiver room that features five-time All-Pro Tyreek Hill  and Jaylen Waddle. 

Also in the mix are Braxton Berrios, River Cracraft, Erik Ezukanma and two players who were selected in his year’s draft Malik Washington and Tahj Washington. 

How will Beckham fit in with Miami? How does Beckham’s signing effect the other wide receivers not named Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle? Why? 

I think Beckham will fit in very nicely in Miami. He doesn’t have to be a top weapon for the offense, but someone that can fill in and be an extra hand with experience. He can teach the younger guys about the league. He can really be a nice option for the Dolphins’ offense and I think the only players he really effects would be the bottom roster wide receivers.

I think he’s going to benefit the team as a whole, clash well with their style, and he does have some speed and can make some incredible catches, even at this age, which is what Miami is developing as their kind of overall roster, offense and team. I think this is a nice fit in Miami and he’ll have a very solid season with Tua slinging it at him.  

His stats last season were not exactly eye opening or stellar… 35 receptions, 565 yards, and 3 TDs… but other than Hill or Waddle no other Miami pass-catcher had more than 35 catches or more than 366 yards for the Dolphins last season. Plus his 27 first downs on those 35 catches were the most of any player who had 35 or fewer receptions.

If Beckham can beat out the other wideouts presently on the Dolphins not named Tyrek Hill or Jaylen Waddle then he will be firmly ensconced as the team’s number three wide receiver option and a go to safety valve in needed first down situations. and frankly I would be surprised if he isn’t  the third WR option when the season begins for real.

5) Which non-playoff team from last season improved their roster enough with their selections in this year’s draft, combined with any free agents they signed, to be a playoff team in 2024/2025 season? Why? 

I can go with the obvious Bengals’ option, who get Joe Burrow back and the significant benefit of having a last-place schedule, so they should definitely get a boost there in easier games. But, I don’t think the Bengals are a fair option in this scenario. I also don’t think the Jets are a fair option, as they’re getting back Aaron Rodgers and improved their offense very much with getting a significant upgrade on their offensive line as well as getting Mike Williams as another weapon for Rodgers.

But my choices, for fun, are the Atlanta Falcons, who really upgraded their entire offense with getting weapons but, most importantly, getting a quarterback. Kirk Cousins was on an MVP-type season pace last year before he got hurt. Getting him in this Falcons’ uniform is going to be the biggest difference maker for them, especially for a roster that’s been so close to the playoffs but just been lacking a true quarterback for the past multiple seasons. If they had a true quarterback, they would’ve been in back-to-back playoffs and excelling in the playoffs as well.

I think the Bears are a sleeper team this year, with a newly upgraded offense. They drafted Caleb Williams at quarterback first overall. They drafted Rome Odunze, number nine overall, at wide receiver. They also traded for Keenan Allen to boost their room considerably. They also upgraded the running back room with De’Andre Swift. This offense is deep, and if everyone turns out how predicted, they’re going to compete for the top of the NFC North.   

I’m going with the Jets as my top choice.

They redid their offensive line between their free agent signings and the draft.

And I think with their top rated defense and a healthy Aaron Rodgers that they are essentially a lock to be a playoff team in the 2024 season.