NFLRT 12/20/2024

The questions and discussion… 

1) The record setting Buffalo Bills’ offense, led by their record setting QB Josh Allen, have scored 42-plus points in their last two games… a 44-42 loss vs the Rams in Week 14 and a 48-42 win vs the Lions in Week 15 as well as extending their streak of 30-plus point games for an 8^th straight week.

However, in back-to-back games, their defense has given up 42 or more points and over 450 yards a game.

Can the Bills keep playing and winning these high scoring games through the remainder of the regular season and then keep that trend going deep into the playoffs for a possible Super Bowl run? Or will the Bill’s defense prove to be their Achilles heel that could see them one-and-done in the post-season? Why or why not?

I think the Bills’ defense is going to be a major problem come playoff time. You cannot keep giving up major points, still,  if they have the offense to keep up then it won’t be too much of a problem.

However, having to face the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers in the playoffs is going to cause problems for their defense, along with slowing down their offense. They need to get their defense fixed to really make a run in the postseason, along with finally defeating Mahomes and Kansas City when it really matters most. 

For the remainder of the regular seson, where the Bills end the season  Patriots, Jets, Patriots, yeah, sure… Josh Allen and the Bills can keep playing in these shoot-out games that kinda resemble the games I used to see watching the old AFL games before the AFL and NFL merged together.

But come the playoffs that tendency to be in those sort of games, in my opinion, will turn around and bit the Bills in their asses.. particularly due to the fact that the deeper the Bills go in the playoffs the better the team will be that they are facing. Especially on defense. And at that point the room for errors of any kind will be minimal at best and if any of those mistakes do occur then each one will be seized upon and exploited to the full advantage of the team they will be facing.

And the desired results for Josh Allen, the Bills and their fans… the Super Bowl.. will be once again be dashed and shattered.

2) The Detroit Lions 48-42 loss to the Buffalo Bills they lost more than just the game as key players suffered injuries on both sides of the ball that included RB David Montgomery (sprained MCL and done for the season) on offense and several important defensive players… starting DT Alim McNeill (torn ACL and also done for the season) and starting CB Carlton Davis III (broken jaw and no timetable for his return yet).

Can the Lions survive these injuries to their offense and defense and recover from their Week 15 loss to the Bills and win out the regular season against the Bears, 49ers and Vikings to win the NFC North and maintain their current number 1 seed of the NFC playoffs? Or is there a real chance that they could lose out on both the top seed in the NFC and the top spot in the NFC North? Why or why not?

The Lions will still maintain the top seed in the NFC and the NFC North.

However, the defense is going to be a major problem in the playoffs and is going to be the ultimate reason they either don’t make it to the Super Bowl, or miss out on the Super Bowl altogether. Their offense is fine. Montgomery isn’t as big of a loss as people are claiming, as they have Gibbs as their main running back. But their defense is really stretched thin, and they can’t catch breaks. So it’s going to be rough, and they need to be prepared to throw up huge points, but the defensive injuries are going to haunt them come January. 

Even though the Lions lost to the Bills they still hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC over the Eagles… the Lions have the edge in conference record, record against common opponents, strength of victory and strength of schedule over Philadelphia. Meaning the only way for the Eagles to jump over the Lions for the No. 1 seed is for the Lions to lose at least one more game while the eagles win out. Philadelphia wins out) to earn the No. 1 seed.

As for the Vikings…

Based on the Lions Week 7 win versus the Vikings. But, in Week 18 those two teams meet up again and assuming they go into the that final game of the regular season without further losses then that game could be for the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the payoffs.

Simply put, if the Vikings and Lions both have the same record heading into Week 18 and the Vikings win, Minnesota gets the division title over Detroit. If Minnesota is a game behind Detroit heading into that game and wins, both will be tied for overall record and division record, but Detroit would still win the division based on having a better conference record than Minnesota, as both teams play NFC opponents the rest of the way with the Lions currently owning a one-game edge over the Vikings in conference record. 

Now…

The Lions play out the regular season with Bears, 49ers, Vikings; the Eagles close it out with Commanders, Cowboys, Giants and the Vikings have Seahawks, Packers and Lions.

This is how I see it playing out… the Eagles will win out the regular season versus the three teams they have left on their schedule… the Lions will win against the Bears and the 49ers in Weeks 16 and 7 respectively and then head into the final game of their regular seson to face the Vikings.

And finally.. the Vikings… this is the team that is the “wild card” in this entire affair… they win in Weeks 16 and 17; they go into their final game against the Lions for all the marbles… the North title and the NFC overall number one seed. However I’m not so sure the Vikings can beat the Packers in Week 17. While winning the North title over the Lions and the Vikings is a very long shot at best, they could still climb the Vikings for a better playoff seed providing they beat the Vikes in Week17 and then the Lions beat the Vikes in Week 18.  

However, if the Vikes win versus the Pack and assuming they do take care of the Seahawks in Week 16… then yep, it all comes down to that game against the Lions in Week 18.

This is how I  see it playing out…

The Eagles win out while the Lions and Viking win in their games in Weeks 16 and 17 and it all It all comes down to that Week 18 game… Lions vs Vikings in Detroit.

And I’m picking the Lions.

3) Leading up to their Week 15 game versus the Eagles the Steelers, who have the NFL’s 4^th best defense against the run, were asked by the media if they were concerned with the Eagles pivoting to a passing game and the prospect of having to go up against QB Jalen Hurts in that game. And almost to a man the players and coaches said that they weren’t worried that the Eagles would shift their offensive strategy to a more pass-heavy system rather than leaning on Saquon Barkley and the run.

But right from the being of the game the Eagles, relied on Hurts’ arm and his ability to connect with his receivers and the Steelers pass defense didn’t have any answers as DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown combined for 19 catches, 219 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Eagles won the game by two TDs 27-13.

Will the Steelers pass-defense cost the team the AFC North title and as well as a coveted high seed for the post-season? Why or why not?

I don’t think the defense being a hindrance for Pittsburgh in the playoffs is really much of a discussion. They continually have a great defense, they know how to play defense very well consistently having one of the best in the NFL and they have TJ Watt and Cam Hayward getting pressure against the quarterback consistently, Hayward is almost 40-years-old yet playing some of his best football.

The major concern in Pittsburgh is if Russell Wilson can still perform at a top level come January and their rush game that’s been hit-or-miss by Najee Harris. That would be my main concern. The positive is how great Boswell has been for them kicking, in a season in which no team has seemingly had overall success with kicks (outside of Detroit and Bates).

The Steelers’ remaining three opponents… Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals…  have a combined record of 26-14 so none of their remaining three games are easy but they are all winnable affairs.  

However considering that the Steelers in those game will face three of the game’s top three QBs in Lamar Jackson (#5 passing yardage), Patrick Mahomes (#10 passing yardage) and Joe Burrow (#1 passing yardage) and the three teams those players head up are among the best in the passing game…  Ravens/#3,Chioefs/#13 and Bengals/#1… they had best regroup and redouble their efforts in stopping the passing game of each of those opponents or else the Steelers can simply forget about winning a division title or having a high AFC playoff seed. 

4) With their 31-14 win against the Indianapolis Colts 31-14 over the weekend, combined with the Chargers and Dolphins losing, did the Denver Broncos lock up a Wild Card for the AFC playoffs as well clinch Coach of the Year for Sean Payton? Why or why not?

Sean Payton isn’t the Coach of the Year. That’s Dan Campbell’s award to lose this season.

However, even with the Thursday loss to the Chargers, I think the Broncos are still playoff bound. Bo Nix is still playing very good football. They have a very solid defense. What Denver needs to do is get Cortland Sutton back involved in the offense heavily like he was a couple weeks ago. That will improve their offense, improve Nix, and have them keep winning football games.

The problem for the Broncos is they have two tough games left – in Cincinnati and at home against Kansas City. Cincinnati might be too tough offensively for Denver, but having a Chiefs team that might sit most of their starters for, at least, a half game will help Denver pull a victory out. If they didn’t have a field goal blocked earlier in the season, they would’ve had a W over KC to their resume. 

Nope not yet for that clinching of a Wild Card but it’s as near a done thing as possibly can be.

But…

In my opinion, I say the Broncos earn a Wild Card into the AFC playoffs and if that comes to be…

Then yes, I think that HC Payton goes to the top of list for the candidates for NFL’s Coach of the Year.  

5)  In Cincinnati’s  37-27 win over Tennessee QB Joe Burrow had another big performance as he went 26/37 for 271 yards and 3 passing TDs. Burrow now leads the NFL in passing yards (3,977) and TDs (36) and now sits second overall with a 74.1 QBR.

Is Joe Burrow playing himself into the conversation for this season’s NFL MVP award? Why or why not?

Joe Burrow definitely should be in the MVP conversation. He’s the only reason that Cincinnati is winning games and involved in high-scoring affairs. The problem in Cincinnati is not their offense. Burrow is having a career season, and hasn’t missed a beat with his rushing attack by Chase Brown either.

We shouldn’t penalize Burrow for how atrocious his defense has been. They’ve been one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and they’ve lost games for Cincinnati this season. How much do the Bengals think Joe Burrow can do offensively? He’s done everything you expect, plus more, including a numerous list of absolutely mind-blowing throws, only to be let down by a defense that would let a wall move the football down the field.

Put Burrow in the conversation and some votes!

Yes, Burrow is playing himself into the conversation for this year’s NFL MVP.

But, but barring him having some near record games statistically speaking to close out the season I still see the MVP race being between Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley with the present edge going to Allen to win the MVP award when it all comes to a close after Week 18.