NFLRT 12/13/2024

The questions and discussion…

1) With their narrow win 19-17 Sunday Night Football win over the Chargers the Kansas City Chiefs are now 12-1 and have clinched winning the AFC West division and are the front runner for the number one seed in the AFC for the playoffs.   

To use CBSSports.com’s Will Brinson’s words, “… the level of sorcery involved with the way this team has won games this year is pretty preposterous.”

Their victory in Week 14  was the team’s 10^th one-score win of the season.

Are the Chiefs just lucky or are they just a good team who bear a resemblance to the Tom-Brady era Patriots… a team that also knew how to win close games and capture multiple championships? Why or why not? 

While the Kansas City Chiefs have been lucky, they’re also just this good.

There was an article that was released today (12/11) by Conor Orr at Sports Illustrated that described a practice method by Andy Reid. Long-drive, end-of-game situation. There’s two rules he has: no substitutions, no breaks.

Patrick Mahomes has stated that he’s run 25-plus plays consecutively in these drills. They’re commonly run in training camp, and during the season. Andy Reid is conditioning the Chiefs for these exact moments they’re consistently in. The Chiefs have real-life game experience in these moments consistently. The Chiefs have been doing this for three-plus years. They have Super Bowl and playoff experience. They also limit mistakes. They’re able to continually convert first downs and move the ball downfield exactly how they need to. They’re able to utilize the clock and everyone on the same page. Their end-of-game routines are like clockwork.

While the Chiefs have had some lucky breaks, the simple answer to this question is that the Chiefs are just that freakin’ good. They’re one of the best teams in the league for this exact reason. They’re compared to the Patriots’ dynasty and Patrick Mahomes compared to Tom Brady for this exact reason. Some luck is involved, but they’re doing everything right and come prepared every week. 

There is an old saying… “Luck is the residue of design.”

Which basically means that what often appears as luck is actually the result of careful planning, preparation, and thoughtful decision-making.

That is what made the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick Patriots so good for all their winning years that saw them take win six Lombardi trophies and 14 AFC titles. And it is that same premise… idea… that works exactly the same for the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid Chiefs now.

Nuff said.

2) This year’s MVP race… which is for all intent and purposes down to being between the Bills’ Josh Allen and the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley… is shaping up to be one of closest in recent memory as well as being an epic “battle” between two of the game’s best performers to win the award.

Still…

After Allen’s performance (albeit a 44-42 loss) versus the Rams on Sunday…  22 of 37 for 342 yards along with 82 rushing yards and 6 total TDs, 3 passing and 3 on the ground, (becoming the first player to ever accomplish that feat although Otto Graham did previously achieve it during the 1954 NFL championship game) and zero interceptions… to be clear the Bills had 445 yards of offense and Allen was responsible for 424 of them as well as scoring all of the Bill’s points in the game except for kicking the points after the TDs… the only way he loses this season’s NFL MVP is if he crashes and burns to finish the regular season (hardly likely in MLBRT’s opinion) or because Saquon Barkley broke the NFL single season records for rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage. True or not true? Why or why not?

I think, at this point, this is a true statement. Josh Allen has been leading the revamped Bills to a top-five power ranking placement for the Bills. While they have some struggles on defense and late-game coaching decision-making, Josh Allen has taken Keon Coleman and a depleted wide receiver core, after the off-season losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and still performed. He’s limiting his turnovers this season. He’s running the ball at an elite level still. He’s taking the offense over and controlling what he needs to control. Unless Saquon Barkley breaks records, Josh Allen gets this year’s MVP trophy for what he’s doing in Buffalo week-in-and-week-out. A week after recording a touchdown hat trick in which he had a receiving, rushing and passing touchdown, he continued his insane touchdown run by recording six touchdowns (three rushing, three passing) with no turnovers. The Bills should’ve won that game, but you can’t blame Josh Allen for any of that. Without him, the Bills have, maybe, three wins this season. 

Anyone who has read any of these NFLRT columns that have been published this NFL year is by now aware I am a big, big, big Saquon Barkley for the NFL MVP award this season.  For two reasons… (1) He is having a NFL season rarely if ever seen, as he is accumulating yardage… both rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage… at a record pace and is a real threat to establish new single season standards in each category; and (2) Without Barkley on their team the Philadelphia Eagles would not be 11-2 on the season and the sole owners of first in the NFC East.

What Josh Allen did in the Bill’s loss versus the Rams… essentially come as close as any plyer could in winning an NFL game almost entirely by his sole performance… along with what he has done on the season as a whole has got me convinced that yes,”…  the only way (Allen) loses this season’s NFL MVP is if he crashes and burns to finish the regular season) or because Saquon Barkley broke the NFL single season records for rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage.”

In fact if Josh Allen continues to play at the level he established for himself against the Rams… has a game or two where he goes off like he did in the Rams’ game… Allen might just win the damn award even if Barkley were to set those yardage records.  

3) After Week 14 saw the Chiefs win and the Bills lose…

Which team survives to be the AFC’s top seed in the upcoming NFL playoffs? Why?

The Chiefs are going to get the top seed. They only have one loss. They’re beating every team they play. With the Bills losing again, they’re gaining ground. I don’t see the Chiefs losing to anybody left on their schedule, outside of Week 18 when they’ll sit their starters.

The Chiefs are built for this period of time. They love the cold. They have a passion to get home-field advantage in the postseason. Patrick Mahomes does what it takes to win the game. The Chiefs have the Browns this week, which should be a nice victory for them. As they continue to win, I don’t see the Steelers, Ravens, Bills or anybody else overtaking the Chiefs for the top seed. Kansas City will play their postseason at Arrowhead and will get to rest up for a week before finding out who they face in round two of the playoffs. 

It’s the same story every week with the 12-1 Chiefs… they seem like they are about to lose a game and then… Doink! A last second FG attempt hits an upright but sneaks over the cross bar and they win.

Here’s how I see this lining up…

The Chiefs remaining opponents are the Browns, Texans, Steelers and they close with the Broncos. Not exactly a cake walk, especially since they have to play the Steelers, Texans and Broncos who are the 3^rd, 4^th and the 7^th AFC playoff teams heading into Week 15.

The Bills have the Lions, Patriots, Jets and Patriots.

Personally… I’m picking the Lions over the Bills this week… so they lose that game in my opinion. But then… with three divisional games… Pats twice and Jets once… to end the season, both of whom have already been eliminated from the playoffs, the Bills sweep the last three games and will be sitting at 13-4.

However, the Chiefs, with their remaining schedule, will go no worse than 2-2…  not saying they will go 2-2. Just saying that they will do no worse than 2-2 and therefore wind up the regular season no worse than 14-3… or…. the top seed in the AFC heading into the playoffs. 

4) After Sundays 42-21 loss to Sam Darnold (347 passing yards and 5 passing TDs) and the Minnesota Vikings, the Atlanta Falcons have now lost four games in a row with QB Kirk Cousins recording zero passing touchdowns and eight interceptions in that four-game stretch. Combined with their loss this past weekend and Tampa Bay’s 28-13 win over Las Vegas, the 7-6 Bucs now occupy first place in the NFC South over the now second place 6-7 Falcons.

It’s pretty much a given that no NFC Wild Cards for the playoffs will be coming from the NFC South this season… so it’s either win the division or clean out the lockers and head home.

Can the Falcons still make the playoffs… win the NFC South… this season with Kirk Cousins at QB? Why or why not?

I think that the Falcons have the offensive firepower to win the division. They also have a season sweep of the Buccaneers to their name which should help out in this divisional race. However, they have to win. And win out.

The Buccaneers, outside of their tough matchup this weekend vs Justin Herbert and the Chargers, should have an easy schedule to round out the season… Dallas, Carolina, New Orleans. All three of those games are easily winnable for the Buccaneers.

The Falcons can win their last four games, as they face Las Vegas, Giants, Commanders (tough matchup) and Carolina.

The Buccaneers have a one-game lead in the division, and the Falcons need the help this week from Los Angeles and to win their own game.

However, Kirk Cousins needs to keep the ball in the hands of his own players. He needs to stop turning it over. Having no touchdowns in the last three games, almost reaching double-digit turnovers in that span, is not the way to win. He started off well in Minnesota and completely crumbled in an ass-beating laid down by the Vikings.

Cousins has to get his act together, or the Falcons are going to pack away their season. 

The Falcons’ playoff odds currently sit at 50%, but they have a chance to control their own destiny if the Buccaneers lose in Los Angeles. The Cardinals were in first place in the NFC West three weeks ago but are now in a precarious position after three straight losses, two to Seattle. And now sit in second a game a game behind the 7-6 Bucs.

Of course a big reason why Atlanta is in this precarious position is because Cousins, as indicated in the question, has basically sucked.

The only way out their precarious position is to win, and the Falcons will most probably need to win out for the regular season to have a realistic chance of making the postseason.

And the only way for the Falcons to win out… or at least a big part of them having any shot at winning out… is for Cousins to start playing like the $45 million a year QB the Falcons are paying him to be and to start throwing a lot more TDs than INTs.

5)  Staying with the Vikings and Sam Darnold…

Sam Darnold had arguably the best game of his career in Sunday’s win for the Vikings… 347 yards and 5 touchdowns and his 157.9 passer rating was a Vikings single-game record. Additionally Darnold has four straight games with 2+ passing touchdowns and zero interceptions, which is the longest single-season streak in franchise history and more importantly he has led his team to an 11-2 record and in position to challenge for the NFC’s top seed in the playoffs. 

Has Darnold at long last shaken off being the “capable back-up” at QB and has now inserted himself firmly into the conversation to be the Viking’s franchise QB going into the immediate future? Why or why not?

Sam Darnold has found a great system with two fantastic weapons to assist with his revival.

And now, I believe the Vikings are probably priced out of Sam Darnold’s market coming into the off-season, but I think the Vikings need to ensure they can secure Darnold for next season.

I don’t believe JJ McCarthy is going to be ready to take over this offense and build upon the great success they’ve had this season. Playing quarterback for Kevin O’Connell is a luxury. He knows how to work quarterbacks with a great system in place, including two great weapons in Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson at their disposal. Sam Darnold looked incredible against the Falcons. The Vikings offense has been humming, and while we’ve seen Darnold falter back to his old self at points, he’s still done enough to limit damage and still pull out victories.

Minnesota needs to ensure Darnold is back for next season to lead their organization at the quarterback position, and make Minnesota feel great about the future. While I think they’re priced out, I think Minnesota needs to make something happen. 

When the Vikings signed Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10M deal this past offseason, it appeared for all intents and purposes it was solely as a bridge QB for first round pick and rookie J.J. McCarthy. And many football peeps thought that before the season was over McCarthy would most likely be the starting QB.

Then McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in preseason. And suddenly Darnold was the starter at QB for the season come hell or high water.

And surprise… through his first 13 starts, Darnold is playing like the QB the Jets though they were drafting at number 3 overall in 2018…

In Minnesota’s 42-21 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, Darnold completed 22-of-28 passes for 347 yards and five touchdowns. Overall he’s got the Vikings sitting at 11-2, second in the NFC Noth behind the Lions (12-1). As the Vikings QB he has thrown 28 passes for TDs… tied with Baker Mayfield for third; Joe Burrow lead all QBs with 33, Lamar Jackson is second with 29 and the presumptive MVP favorite for this season, Josh Allen, is fifth with 23 and he ranks sixth in the league in passing yards (3,299) and ahead of Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen all of whom have been mentioned as MVP possibilities for the season.

Prior to this season Darnold had 27 touchdown passes…  in his previous four seasons combined. And had never thrown for more than 19 in a season.

And his most passing yards ever in a single season came in his second year in the NFL when he tossed for 3,024.

McCarthy is supposedly the Vikings QB for the future but of the future… but if Darnold continues playing the way he has been so far this season… and… if he leads the Vikings deep into playoffs… could that change Minnesota’s plans?  

Yeah they recently signed former Giants QB Daniel Jones, but assuming McCarthy is healthy for the start of next season which other QB would you rather have on the team? Darnold or Jones?

Problem is that is no longer going to be such an easy proposition for Minnesota to accomplish… Darnold, as indicated above, is signed for just this year and then after the season is conclude he will be a free agent and with how he’s been playing if the Vikes don’t transact a deal prior to the off-season he will be getting more than a few offers to play for teams who have an opening at QB… including, ironically, both teams from the NY metro area.  

A Spotrac projection places Darnold’s market value at a four-year deal worth $34.4M annually. And according to Spotrac, the Vikings will have $78.6M in cap room in 2025.

They have other players they need to sign, among those payers is cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. (urgently 3^rd in INTs/6 in 13 games played) but at this point can Minnesota not afford to keep Darnold?

Tampa Bay signed Baker Mayfield to a three-year, $100M deal after he made his first Pro Bowl last season.

The Vikings should consider doing the same with Darnold.