NFLRT 11/29/2024

The questions and discussion…

1) Very arguably the most beleaguered NFL fan base has to be those folks from the New York Metropolitan area who have not just one team to be sorrowful over but two… the New York Giants and the New York Jets.

In your opinion at this point for either of the two New York franchise, which New York team is the more fixable team… Giants or Jets? Why?

I think the more fixable franchise are the Giants, which might be a little shocking to some people.

The Giants have a solid offensive tackle in Andrew Thomas to build around. They have Tyrone Tracy Jr at running back to provide some balance for offense. They have Malik Nabers as a solid weapon option to give an incoming quarterback a solid foundation and weapon to throw to. They have Dexter Lawrence, one of the leading Defensive Players of the Year on the defensive line, with Kayvon Thibodeaux at edge that’s a very strong starting spot for their overall defense.

They’re likely going to have a top-three draft pick coming up to get a new franchise quarterback. The Giants have a nice foundation to build around, and they’re in a division that completely flips every year.

The Jets, after devoting a lot of money to top players, still haven’t figured it out. They have a great team on paper, but just can’t put results out on the field. They’ll also have to restart at quarterback, and I think the Jets are going to be fixing the entire roster, staff and front office. I feel more comfortable with the Giants than the Jets. Putting a lot of resources into pieces that won’t be there long, along with no results after going all-in is a huge sign for concern that there’s deeper rooted issues afoot. 

I’m going with Jets.

The Giants right now are floundering ship lost at sea, rudderless and without anyone at the wheel to direct the team anywhere near being a competitive NFL team.

While it could also be said the Jets aren’t all that far removed from being in the same lousy and forlorn  state of affairs as the Giants, at least the Jets owner Woody Johnson has come to the conclusion what he is seeing on the field with the Jets just ain’t getting the job done and that changes need to be made and to the that end has already fired HC Robert Saleh and GM Joe Dougals and have since hired The 33rd Team, which was founded and run by former Jets General manager and senior vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum to help the Jets find candidates for their general manager and coaching vacancies. Additionally former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman will also help Tannenbaum identify candidates for the Jets two key openings to essentially run the team going forward into the 2025 season.

Tannenbaum was the last Jets’ GM to have significant success for the team. Under his stewardship he built Jets teams that went to back-to-back AFC Championships in 2009 and 2010. Since then, the Jets have missed the playoffs for 13 consecutive seasons, the longest playoff drought in North American sports.

And Spielman was a chief advisor to the Washington Commanders in their search for their team’s new head coach and general manager which ultimately became Adam Peters as its general manager and Dan Quinn as the head coach… the Commanders are one of the NFL’s surprise teams this season and have turned the franchise from being a last place losing team to a team that is currently 7-5 and in the hunt for the playoffs.   

The Jets already have the nucleus of a very good to excellent defensive team ( number 7^th overall and 2^nd against the pass last season)… yes, there has been a drop off in their effectiveness since Saleh (whose forte has always been defense) was canned, but the key skill players who were the basis of that defense are still there, and they just need the proper coaching to get their mojo back up to the accustomed and expected speed. What the Jets do need, however, is an offense and a QB capable of playing against NFL defenses.

And with Tannenbaum and Spielman’s guidance they just might be able to get a GM and a HC who can do that.

Every journey begins with a single step… the Jets owner has taken that first and very important step.

The Giants on the other hand are still a floundering mess with no direction known whatsoever. 

So for right now the edge for the more fixable team goes to the Jets.

2) Going into Week 13 there is only a one game difference between the four teams in the NFC West… at 6-5 the Seattle Seahawks  and Arizona Cardinals are tied for first and at 5-6 the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are tied for last.

Which team wins the NFC West? Why? 

Give me the Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC West.

While they did lose Aaron Donald this past off-season, the Rams’ defensive front has still been getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, leading the league with a pressure rate of 11.4 percent. They have 28 sacks on the season, with a pressure rate of 26.2 percent. However, their missed tackles are insane at 93, second-most in the NFL. They’ve still been able to stay competitive in games and were able to survive through Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua injuries at the same time.

They have one of the best running backs in the league in Kyren Williams, they have Matthew Stafford who works through and with whoever gets placed on the field. Sean McVay is one of the best head coaches in the league. If I’m putting my trust in a team, give me the Rams.

I don’t think Seattle is as consistent as people think, nor is their defense all that good. They’re rushing attack has been spotty this season.

Arizona showed that they fall apart just as easily as they can get hot. If you force Arizona to stop running the football, they look lost having to depend on the passing game strictly to win games.

The 49ers lack depth. They also have dealt with a ton of injuries this season, with CMC not looking like himself since coming back from dealing with Achilles’ problems to start the year. Purdy has a shoulder injury currently and they lost Aiyuk for the season. The 49ers know how to win, but with how they’ve playing, I just don’t trust them to make the playoffs or win their division. 

I am eliminating the 49ers from contention to win the division on the basis that the team simply has too many injuries to too many key players in key positions to be able to muster a team o the field capable enough to amass enough wins to sneak in and win the NFC West.

I like the Rams a lot especially on defense… in fact because of their defense. I am a firm believer in defense wins more championships than offense does. However teams still has to outscore the other teams to win games and that’s where the Rams have a problem. Out of the four NFC West teams… Rams are the only team with a negative point differential for the season, and it’s an bad at minus-43. They don’t fix this by a decided margin they won’t win enough games to win the West. In my opinion they don’t and they won’t win the division.

Leaves me with the Seahawks and the  Cardinals…

Heading into a Week 12 matchup Arizona had won four games in a row and gone 5-1 in its last six while Seattle had gone 3-3. Then in their Week 12 game Seattle’s defense played to its full capacity and rose to the occasion  holding the Cardinals to just 6 points while Jets castoff QB Geno Smith efficiently managed the game to produce just enough offense to score 16 points.

I’m taking the Seahawks to continue to ride that defense along with a Geno Smith managed offense that tends to score just enough points to win games to take the NFC West over the Cardinals… but just barely.

I wouldn’t advise anyone to bet the ranch based on my thinking here… no for this division; it’s that wide open.

3) After recording his seventh interception (tied for the NFL lead) in the Packers 38-10 win over the 49ers, has Xavier McKinney secured himself a spot into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation? Why or why not?

Xavier McKinney has been in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation, and I think he really locked his place in the award race. He has seven interceptions on the season, including six straight in his first six games. He’s been an enormous difference maker for the Packers on defense in their coverage and secondary. He hasn’t allowed a single touchdown this season, and the best opposing QB rate of his career at 55.4. He has a 5.3 missed tackle percentage, His average depth of target when he’s been in coverage has been 16.9, which is, by far, the highest of his career. He’s allowed 10.9 yards per completion in coverage, which, for how deep he’s covering opposing wide receivers, is a good number. He’s also taken 99 percent of snaps on the season he’s been available. Put him in the running and give him some votes, now.

I’m sorry (not sorry)…

If McKinney is a player who has seven INTs on the season, including six in his first six games, and he also has not allowed a TD this season through the area of his chief responsibility; then how is that player… McKinney… not already securely in the midst of the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year?

4) After starting the season 7-2 the Washington Commanders have now lost three games in a row and have arguably looked like a mess during that streak.

While their NFC East title chances have taken a huge hit, the Commanders are the No. 7 seed in the playoffs, however the Rams and Seahawks are right behind them waiting for their chance to move up.

Can the Commanders fix their problems both on offense and on special teams and still be a playoff team? Or is their present losing streak the beginning of the end for their playoff hopes this season? Why or why not?

The problem with the Commanders is truly the offense and this has been a problem for Kliff Kingsbury since his days in Arizona. For Washington, they couldn’t do anything against a poor Dallas’ defense that’s allowed 2.55 points per drive. They couldn’t do anything against the blitz, in which Jayden Daniels had his worst game against the blitz in his short career. It just looked like Washington’s offensive game plan was shared with Dallas’ defense as his hitch and curl routes thrown all game weren’t moving the needle. The Cowboys were ahead of everything, resulting in only nine points through three quarters of the game. Back in Arizona, from 2019-2022, Kliff Kingsbury was sixth in points per drive and 10th in EPA per play weeks 1-8. In the second half of the season, he dropped to 20th in points per drive and 24th in EPA per play. He’s stated that he’s not going to change the offense, and that’s a huge sign that Kingsbury doesn’t see the problem that’s been at-hand, and the offensive issues will continue. They seem to start when Daniels’ mobility started to get limited after his rib injury, followed by history continuing and no adaptability from the offensive coordinator. The Commanders are falling further and further back from the Eagles and are going to toss away a Wild Card slot to one of the competitive NFC West teams after the NFC North seemingly has locked up the other two Wild Card slots. 

The special teams problems aside… simply put the Commanders special team coaches need to kick some ass, hold some names accountable and if need be than replace the worst transgressors in that department and hopefully that goes a long way to fixing those issues this late in the season.  

 The bigger problem with the Commanders right now is that it seems that rookie QB Jayden Daniels has hit a wall of some sort and frankly I think his earlier season rib injury is still being bothersome and decidedly affecting his abilities and decision making o the field of play.

Also I believe the Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury… has not done a good enough job with his paly calling to aid Daniels in his efforts to adjust to dealing with and playing with his rib issues as well as adjusting and adapting to opposing defenses who have now seen copious hours of film and adjusted their game plans to combat Daniel’s exceptionable talents a QB as well as limited mobility due to his ribs.

Kingsbury either needs to develop better game plans or be replaced as the game’s primary play caller because if neither occurs then Daniels might not have enough time left in this season to recover enough from his rib issues and return to his former self who could take over games with his pure star quality talents.  

5) Heading into Week 13 who is your leader for the NFL Rookie of the Year Award? Why?

After Jayden Daniels’ drop off in recent weeks, I think it’s time to take him out of the lead in the Rookie of the Year race and place another quarterback, who has an insane amount of college experience, in his place… Bo Nix who has been on an insane run.

In his last five games, he has 11 touchdowns, 1 interception, 70.2 completion percentage and 1,302 passing yards. He’s also making plays with his feet. He helped the Broncos dismantle the Falcons, come within a blocked field goal away from beating the Kansas City Chiefs, and has only six interceptions on the season.

He’s fit into Sean Payton’s offense perfectly as the next Drew Brees coming. He was a dump-passer at Oregon, thriving on the short passing game to continually gain yardage, keep the clock rolling and staying positive. He’s also had to deal with a mediocre rushing attack, so the ball for offense has been solely on his shoulders. And he hasn’t let the organization down. It’s working in Denver, and Bo Nix has been an outstanding rookie taking the Broncos into the playoff contention and currently in the seventh seed for the AFC, with a 66 percent chance of making the playoffs, with a 50 percent chance still remaining if they lose to Cleveland (which I don’t foresee happening) on Monday Night Football. 

Up to the last few weeks Washington’s QB Jayden Daniels seemed to have a lock on this award. He’s hit a bit of a lull to be kind.

In that same basic time span Denver’s QB Bo Nix has taken off… last week Nix was named the NFL’s Rookie of the Week for the third consecutive time. 

 Since starting of the seson looking like he was dud… four INTs and zero TDs and two losses in season’s first two games… Nix has since righted his ship and thrown just two additional INTs with 16 TDs, including going  for 11 TDs versus just 1 INT in his last five games, and guided the Broncos to a 7-3 record during that span (7-5 overall) and has the Broncos siting in the 7^th and last spot for the AFC playoffs.

Daniels conversely had just two INTS with nine TDs in his first nine games (7-2) and had the Commanders firmly in first in the NFC East and in the hunt for a top playoff spot in the NFC but has since led the Commanders to an 0-3 record while throwing 3 INTs and 3 TDs and in the process dropping the Commanders down to 7-5 and fighting for the lat playoff spot in the NFC.

Bo Nix has replaced Jayden Daniels ass my leading candidate for this season’s NFL’s Rookie of the Year award.

And as an extra for this week’s column…