NFLRT 11/15/2024

   

The questions and discussion…

There is a lot of truth in the old Bill Parcells comment “You are what your record says you are,” i.e., winning teams overwhelmingly have winning records and losing teams overwhelming have losing records and results matter and players and coaches get judged on those results. 

Still, sometimes good teams run into a stretch of tough-luck losses and wind up losing more games than they win, and the opposite is true for some teams that folks would consider bad that somehow wind up winning more than they lose.

So with that in mind, NFLRT considers the following…  

1) As of Monday morning (11/11) there are seven AFC teams (Jets, Patriots, Dolphins, Browns, Titans, Jaguars and Raiders) that are at least four games or more under .500… 

From the above group of teams which of these clubs are better than their record presently says they are? And of that sub-group which team would top the list of being better than their record says they are? Why?

Patriots and Titans were supposed to be rebuilding so it’s no surprise each of those teams has struggled. But the Pats, at least, have reason for to believe things will improve as the season goes on because rookie Drake Maye looks like he can be a franchise quarterback for them.

Still from this group the Raiders, Browns, Jaguars and Titans all have question marks at that important position of QB and as Parcells’ quote indicates… they are what their record says they are.

The only team that I think is better than their present record… or will be better than their present record as the second half of the season progresses… is the Miam Dolphins.  

 The Dolphins were without QB Tua Tagovailoa who was out with a concussion and went 1-3 and never scored more than 12 points in any of those games.  Yeah they lost the first two games he played in when he was cleared to play but the Dolphins offense was rejuvenated and scored  27 in each game with Tua at QB. Then in Tua’s third game back the defense, after yielding 28 and 30 points in those losses, came alive and held the Rams to just 15 points while Tua and the offense generated just enough offense to win the game 23-15. I fully expect that game to be the beginning of an extended win streak (as long as Tua is healthy and the Dolphins starting QB) and will wind up the regular season being a contender for a Wild Card.

And the team from this group that should be better than their record is but is not is are the Jets. And, frankly, why they are not better is a conundrum that I am at a loss to explain. This team on paper has the scoring weapons that most team would do almost anything to acquire but still they struggle to score points. Maybe the reality is that it’s time to start seriously considering that Aaron Rodgers is nearing the end of the line in his NFL career and can’t be even an above average NFL QB for an entire game anymore. Spurts and periods of his former MVP self but when I watch him perform on the field he doesn’t seem as if he can keep it up for a whole game. We shall see as the second half of the seson progresses but unless the Rodgers can find a way to relive his glory days and kickstart the Jets offense so they start winning games the Jets  too will be just another team that is what their record says they is… losers and out of the playoffs.

2) The Kansas City Chiefs just keep finding ways to win football games and for the most part the results have been similar through the season to this point… the games are close, the offense, more or less, is underwhelming but gets the job done and they win games. Even when a loss seems to be all but in the books such as their game versus Denver on Sunday (11/10)… with one second on the game clock, Broncos have to make a 35-yard field goal attempt… essentially a chip shot for most NFL kickers… to win the game but KC blocked the kick, and the Chiefs improved to 9-0 on the season. 

Are the Chiefs as good as their unbeaten record? Are the Chiefs the best team in the AFC? Why or why not? 

And…

Will the 2024 version of the Chiefs ultimately join the 1972 Miami Dolphins (17-0 and won Super Bowl VII) and become only the second team in NFL history to have an unbeaten and untied, championship season? Why or why not?  

First, as the question indicates the Chiefs have been somewhat lucky in achieving their unbeaten record to his point. This Chiefs team simply has had an offense that hasn’t been always clicking on all levels it normally does and scoring points in bunches as it has in the past been capable of doing and that is partly due to QB Patrick Mahomes having kinda, sorta an un-Mahomes-like season so far. So far this season he has thrown 9 INTs, tied for second worst in the league, and has been sacked 20 times… not terrible but not great either. And the OL being somewhat leaky has probably led to Mahomes being under pressure more than usual and has been part of the reason why Mahomes has those second most INTs.

What the Chief have been exceptional at through the first part of this season is being really, really good when it counts.  As HC Andy Reid is likely to tell reporters after most of the Chiefs’ games… KC deserves credit for battling in numerous close games and making key plays to win those games whether it is on offense or defense. Simply put the Chiefs have won seven games by seven points or fewer, including four that were decided on the final play.

But is that sustainable? Or, if it continues, are they headed for a fall?

Prior to this season beginning part of the grand blueprint for the Chiefs in their quest to three-peat was to bolster their big paly capability by signing free agent WR Hollywood Brown and drafting highly touted college wideout Xavier Worthy to complement last season’s leading wide receiver Rashee Rice and WR  and co-starter Juju Smith-Schuster and the usually always dependable (and Mahomes’ favorite go-to guy) TE Travis Kelce. But Brown was lost for the season due to injury and resultant sternoclavicular joint surgery, Worthy has had some rookie woes and Kelce, like Mahomes, has had a somewhat down year. And even Smith-Schuster has been limited due to a hamstring string injury in Week 7.

This all led to the Chiefs countering to an offense that relies heavily on the running game… this season KC is 11^th in rushing attempts, which is by far the most such attempts during the Mahomes era in KC.  Bu this prevented the team with another problem… their arguably best runner Isiah Pacheco was on the injured list because he fractured his fibula in Week 2 against the Bengals with a time line to return in about eight weeks. So they went out and signed RB Kareem Hunt who has had  two 100-yard games and is tied for the team lead in TDs with five but compared to Pacheco isn’t on the same level at this point in his career.

So…

How have the Chiefs accomplished winning their nine games so far?

As mentioned earlier by making key plays at key times. But probably more important is their ability to convert third and fourth downs into first downs and keep the ball moving down the field… the Chiefs are converting on a league-high 54.5% of their third- and fourth-down opportunities.

So again… is all this sustainable. Can the Chiefs keep winning and go undefeated?

Let’s face facts, Mahomes is not Aaron Rodgers at the end of his career or a journey man like Joe Flacco and a below average offense with Mahome QBing is not going to be the order of the  day for the Chiefs going through the remainder of the season. Add to this is that the Chiefs, and Mahomes, are a second half team… they get better as the season goes long and excel in the second half.

Also, news has come from the Chiefs that the pending return of Pacheco should help a rushing attack that is right now handing the ball off Hunt more than twenty-two times a game but who also hasn’t topped 4.0 yards per rush in any of those games. Pacheco, if he is healthy will be a big add in the second half. Simply put, trading out replacement-level efficiency from Hunt for an above-average back in Pacheco would be, and will be, a major upgrade. And WR Andre Hopkins’ role will also improve as his knee gets better and he becomes more familiar with the Chiefs plays and the offense.  

As the Chiefs offense is getting healed and starters are returning, and the NFL season turns to second half… the Chiefs favorite time… here is how I see it playing out…   

The Chiefs get by Buffalo this weekend on Sunday… then look out anything could happen including the Chiefs sweeping the remainder of the season straight through to the Super Bowl.

The Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Browns, and Broncos make up five of Kansas City’s last seven games. A home matchup with the Texans followed by a date with the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Christmas are two of the tougher games.

Undefeated season? Get by Buffalo and it could happen

3) With Sam Darnold at QB, the Minnesota Vikings started the season  5-0. During that stretch Darnold had 11 touchdowns to 4 interceptions and an excellent completion percentage. Since that start, while the completion percentage is still high (74.2%), Darnold’s turnovers are significantly up…. he’s thrown 6 interceptions to only 6 touchdown passes in the 4 games since that 5-0 start. The Vikings are a good team and in spite of Darnold’s turnovers continue to win games. In fact his overall numbers aren’t all that terrible but that uptick in INTs…

Can Minnesota be a true and serious NFC title contender if Darnold keeps turning the ball over more than he completes TD passes? Why or why not?

Nope.

Make the playoffs? In all likelihood probably.

Go deep in the playoffs and contend for the Super Bowl? Unlikely if Darnold is throwing at least as many INTs as he is throwing TD passes or worse.

Darnold needs to play in games with as few errors as possible to take the Vikings anywhere near being a team that can play against the other supposedly best teams in he league and go deep into the playoffs and have Super Bowl hopes.   

4) According to ESPNSports.com… “This marks the most passing yards allowed by the Ravens through the first 10 weeks of a season since 2000. It’s unlike a Baltimore defense that had allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards (221.2) from Harbaugh’s first season in 2008 to the 2023 season.”

In the Ravens 35-34 Thursday Night Football over the Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase beat various Ravens defenders to produce 264 yards receiving and 3 touchdowns to become the latest player to take apart a secondary that historically for the Ravens has been a defensive strong point. 

The added pressure on the Ravens offense to produce almost every time the offense touches the ball is becoming more apparent (see TNF game) as the season progresses. All of the above helps create this problem for the Ravens… through Thursday night’s game, the Ravens rank No. 1 on offense (440.2 yards per game) and No. 27 on defense (367.9).And presently Baltimore’s pass defense ranks last in the NFL, yielding 294.9 yards per game.

Herein lies the challenge for the Ravens…

No team has ever won the Super Bowl with the league’s worst pass defense.

Can the Ravens fix their league-worst pass defense? Why or why not?

And…

If the Ravens can’t fix their defensive woes can they still be the last team standing at the conclusion of this season’s NFC Championship game? Why or why not?

The 2024 Ravens have very few flaws, but their most noticeable issues might cost them down the line. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens’ rush defense gives up the least amount of yards per game (75.7). However, when it comes to the pass defense, it is undoubtedly the biggest weakness in the Charm City. 

While the run defense is arguably top of the line good, the pass defense is anything but. In particular the Ravens secondary has been getting burned for ginormous yards which in turn results into creating a number of high-scoring games where the offense needs to outscore the other team for the Ravens to win.

The problem is that opponents know the run defense in Baltimore is stout, so as a result, the opposing offense takes advantage of the poor pass defense. No other team has faced as many pass attempts through nine weeks as the Ravens, and only the Buccaneers’ defense has allowed more completions. 

Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry might be able to lead the Ravens offense to overcome the Ravens bad pass defense and into the playoffs… the Baltimore offense averages the most yards per game (445.9), with the rushing game averaging the most yards per contest (191.9) and the passing game averaging the third-highest yards per game (254.0) as it scores the second-most points per game at 31.4. 

But in the playoffs, and if the Ravens want to win a Super Bowl, the pass defense has to improve, by a lot,  must be better. Especially when that defense will be facing guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, or Joe Burrow at QB in the AFC playoffs.  

5) With news breaking on Saturday (11/9) that the Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott suffered a partially torn hamstring in their Week 9 loss to the Falcons and is now facing undergoing season-ending surgery on his hamstring… a final decision is expected within days.

Prescot was originally expected to miss several weeks, but now, if surgery is in his immediate future, faces missing the remainder of the 2024 season. 

If Prescott is lost to the Cowboys for the remainder of the season are the Dallas Cowboys also done for the season? Why or why not

In as simple words as I can put this…

With a healthy Dak Prescott the Cowboys were being out played and outscored… without Prescott at QB?

Stick a fork in the Cowboys; they’re done.

And…

Start prepping the war room for the draft.