NFLRT 1/26/2024

The questions and discussion… 

1) This season Rookie QB C.J. Stroud established that he’s the present and future face of the team by outdoing all preseason predictions for the Houston Texans and taking the team to the Divisional Round of the playoffs before being eliminated by a well-rounded Baltimore Ravens team.  

What do the Texans need to do to enhance and improve the team to better help Stroud in his development to do what he does best o the field and lead the Texans into the future as a playoff team and Super Bowl contender? Why?

The Texans have the toughest task accomplished of them all on finding an established, franchise quarterback in the draft. But they need to get a running game going to complement him. Singletary isn’t going to cut it.

They need a legit threat rushing to get some looks off the quarterback and throw the defense off because teams win in the trenches and driving open big running lanes or having a secured rushing attack opens up the field. You can use up clock. You can change the tempo of the game. Slow the game play down while time still ticks away. Opens up play-action and forces the defense to not expect one form of offensive play. As CJ Stroud grows, giving him options on offense where he can do RPOs (Run-Pass-Option), play-action, get guys in motion, run different plays from the exact same offensive formation (both pass and run) that throws defenses off of their heels and won’t have them just expecting pass almost every down.

The Texans also are going to need to bolster the front seven to pair with Will Anderson Jr. Jonathan Greenard had a fantastic season with 12.5 sacks, but he’s a free agent. So are veterans Derek Barnett, Jerry Hughes and Sheldon Rankins. So solidifying the defensive front to keep pushing pressure on opposing quarterbacks is going to be huge.

They also need to address their linebackers as well with both Blake Cashman and Denzel Perryman becoming free agents, who were two starters. Get the defensive front seven tuned in and keep that force on defense they had this season, and get a running game, and the Texans are going to be competitors for the Super Bowl in a couple of seasons, especially with the growth of QB CJ Stroud coming. 

With a record setting rookie season it appears the Texans have their franchise QB for the present and future in C.J. Stroud. Barring a complete reversal of what he accomplished this season he should be leading the Texans into the playoffs and most likely multiple AFC South titles for years to come. Be it shouldn’t be lost that Stroud’s capabilities on the football field and what he was able to do also hid one what is arguably the Texans’ biggest deficiency as a team… their run game is inconsistent at best and at times simply sucked.

Dameon Pierce who had a solid year rookie took a major step backwards this as he averaged only 2.9 yards per carry and never came close to being aa 100 yard rusher as he surpassed 40 yards in only 3 games before  losing his job to Devin Singletary While Singletary was an improvement for the Texans as their primary running back the teams limitations in the run game were exposed in the Texans loss in their divisional round loss to the Ravens when their run game was limited to 38 yards on 14 carries. And make an mistake it isn’t just the running backs who are the problem with this faulty rushing attack as the Texans ranked 20th league-wide in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grades. They need one or two strong and agile line men to pen holes and block downfield.

After the divisional round loss head coach Ryans told the media, “The running game will be significant for us to improve upon. I think you see as you go throughout this game, especially in the postseason, teams that win games have to be able to run the football and sustain it. We weren’t able to accomplish that versus the Ravens, and it showed up. We definitely have areas to improve, many different areas, but run game is one of those areas, for sure.”

Therefore I would be surprised if the Texans don’t at least knock on some of the doors of the agents for RBs in a slightly down market for those players this off-season. But they should at the mi quire about what it would cost to get Saquon Barkley. Or maybe on a cheaper level but still capable of providing decent output players such Josh Jacobs or Derrick Henry who could fit into the Texans’ budget on somewhat limited year terms until they have to pay Stroud and other young players such as rookie wide receiver Tank Dell or second-year cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.

The other tactic would be to re-sign Singletary, while adding depth through the draft. They have the No. 23 overall pick, but they don’t have to burn that pick on a running back as  have other areas they need to improve/fix and (2) have seven additional selections spread out across the second, third, fourth and seventh rounds which should provide them ample opportunities to fill their need at the position if they go that route.   

But improving their run game is a necessity to help take off of the pressure that teams will start targeting on Stroud as well as aiding in his future development as their franchise QB.

The other area they need to address is getting the players to improve/stabilize their defensive front.

While their present group was more than adequate for the bulk of the season with defensive end Jonathan Greenard having a breakout year along with veterans such as Derek Barnett, Jerry Hughes and Sheldon Rankins providing experience to complement potential Defensive Rookie of the Year  Will Anderson Jr. on the defensive line those players are free agents this off-season. And Greenard likely won’t come cheaply as he led the  team with a 12.5-sack season.

In addition two of their starters at linebacker… Blake Cashman and Denzel Perryman… are also set to hit free agency.

Ryans addressed tha tissue also in his postgame interview when he said, “The front, again, is everything for me and we will invest a ton of resources into the front. If you want to play good defense, your front has to be elite. That’s what I envision us playing, elite defensive football. We have to get better there, and to get better, you have to invest the resources there up front. That’s what we’ll do. That’s where our focus is heading into the offseason, to make sure our front gives us an opportunity to win some games.”

And here is where the Texans should invest heavily in both free agency as well as the draft. They may not go hog-wild but they have the cap space to afford to bring in an All-Pro D-line anchor such as Chris Jones (Kansas City Chiefs), or a Pro Bowl linebacker/edge rusher like Josh Allen (Jacksonville Jaguars) or Brian Burns (Carolina Panthers). And they should go after one of those guys in a big manner.

And they have that 23^rd  pick in the first round as well as those bevy of picks throughout the draft. They should be targeting linebackers and defensive linemen.

Bottom line to improve this team for next seson and beyond… Houston should look to get their next young offensive or defensive line talent in the first round, while adding one of the draft’s top running backs with its second or third pick.

2) Similar to the Texans’ QB Stroud the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love, although not a rookie but in his 4^th fourth year, has shown this season that he too is the present and future face of the team by outdoing all preseason predictions and in the  Divisional Round of the playoffs nearly pulling off an upset of the heavily favored (by 9.5 points) upset of the San Francisco 49ers.  

What do the Packers need to do to take the next step in Loves’ development and improving the team to continue its present success and maintain the team as a playoff team and potential Super Bowl contender? Why?  

Green Bay had a fantastic season from a very young group of players including incredible play from Jordan Love as a whole (with some cold times during the middle of the season, and absolute dominance towards the end of the season).

The offense is looking good, but they do need a little help on the offensive line. Depth is one key to that, but also replacing David Bakhtiari as his injuries have been a major killer for the Packers’ offensive line as he’s been the longest-tenured tackle, and one of the best in the NFL. The Packers offense looks great, though. Jordan Love is the next franchise quarterback, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillion and Emmanuel Wilson are all very nice at running back, and the receiver core has a lot of very young talent. Christian Watson needs to stay healthy, something he hasn’t been able to do. Doubs has come out as the leader of the receivers. Jayden Reed had a breakout second-half of the season and even Bo Melton and Dontayvion Wicks have been outstanding in glimpses and when Love has needed them. The duo at tight end is next level and reminds me of when Tom Brady had the dominant duo at tight end. Tucker Kraft was able to hold his own when Musgrave was out, and Musgrave was a huge addition immediately.

The defense, on the other hand, really needs to improve. They had a lot of questionable play, with allowing the Panthers and Bryce Young to score more than what they have all season, they allowed Baker Mayfield to post the only perfect passer rating by an opponent at Lambeau Field. The defense almost cost them the entire season. But they did get decimated by injuries for a good chunk of the season on defense (on offense, for that matter), but they need to first address the Defensive Coordinator job and get Joe Barry out of there. It’s time to go after a good, well-respected DC to properly lead the defense. They have the offense.

They’ve had the offense for years. Their defense needs to step back up. Dominate the pass rush, force the opposing quarterbacks to make quick decisions in a jammed pocket, and create turnovers. That’s going to be key. But I don’t think Joe Barry is going to be the defensive coordinator to bring the Packers to the Super Bowl. He’s just going to hold them back. 

The Packers also have their franchise QB for the present as well as their future years with Jordan Love having a breakout season in leading the Packers into the playoffs.  

Their offense is loaded with talented young players and this is where the front office should be most busy and be trying to lock in some of those young players to complement Love and solidify their offense for years to come.

The are they most need to improve however is on defense.

Their overall defense was about middle of the pack (no pun intended) this season as was  their pass defense but their run defense in a word… stunk. It was the 5^th worst in all of the NFL.  

They need guys who can break through the offensive line and wreak havoc in the opposing teams back field and take out the runners before they can get a head of steam up field. And they need to address this either through free agency or through the draft. But either way if they don’t improve their defense on all levels but especially against the run  then they run the risk of wasting Love’s talents and this young and improving offense they already have established and wind up missing the playoffs instead of being possible Super Bowl contenders.  

3) The Buffalo Bills came into the Divisional Playoff Game versus on a six-game win streak, Josh Allen played a game that lived up to most people’s expectations. In the end the contest came down to the Bills attempting a game tying field goal with less than two minutes left on the clock that went wide right and allowed the Chiefs to run out the clock to again dash the Bills chances of having a chance to be in the Super Bowl.  

For the third year in a row, and the second in a row at home, the Bills lost in the Divisional Round. Head coach Sean McDermott’s team has made the playoffs in six of his seven seasons in Buffalo, but they have yet to reach the Super Bowl. 

Can the Bills ever get over the hump and get to the Super Bowl during the Josh Allen era? Why or why not?

And if the Bills finally attain the Super Bowl during Allen’s time with the team can Allen win on the NFL’s biggest stage and put an end to another Buffalo streak of futility… the Bills have been to the Super Bowl four times but have never won the game…

Can Josh Allen lead the Buffalo Bills to win the  Lombardi Trophy? Why or why not?

Yes, the Buffalo Bills can reach the Super Bowl during the Josh Allen era. And, luckily, they still have a lot of time. But they’re getting older. And it’s going to be important to get younger.

But another key to Josh Allen’s success in Buffalo is limiting his turnovers. He just rushed for his 18th touchdown of the season against Kansas City, including post-season, which set the NFL record that previously was held by Jalen Hurts. Josh Allen also had the most combined (rushing and passing) touchdowns in the NFL. He’s got the most turnovers in the NFL in the past multiple seasons. He’s like this era’s Brett Favre, and while he can lead a team to the playoffs almost on his own, if he limits his turnovers he would be in the conversation that Patrick Mahomes is in.

How many times have we seen regular season games where Josh Allen turns the ball over multiple times, and they cost them the game. His red-zone turnovers became a big problem during the 2022-2023 season. He fixes that, and limits his turnovers, it’s going to be a completely different quarterback and offense and overall team.

They can make the Super Bowl, and Josh Allen is good enough to win a Super Bowl for Bills Mafia. 

As former Bills general manager Bill Polian put it, “as long as (josh Allen) is playing at a high level, the (Super Bowl) window is open.”

Since being drafted by the Bills in 2018 Allen has developed into one of the league’s top quarterbacks. He is also under contract until the 2028.  

Overall Allen ranks second in total QBR (72.1) since 2020 behind only All-Star QB Patrick Mahomes. Plus he the second best QB at running the ball trailing only (no shock here) Lamar Jackson.

In the simplest terms… Allen is what makes the Bills go. Since 2020 he leads the NFL in accounting for what the team does on offense… 76.6% of the team’s yards gained, nd 80.2 % of the team’s TDs. And is one of the Bill’s top runners as he accounts for 26.7% of the team’s rushing yards.

But… he has some things that need improving upon. He at times tends to make poor decisions which puts him among the league leaders, if not the leader, in turning the ball over, especially in the red zone.

The other issue is more of a team issue than Allen’s personally… since he came into the NFL Allen has not missed a game and in the process no QB has been hit as often as Allen has in recent years. For the Bills to continue being a playoff team and therefore Super Bowl contenders Allen need to stay healthy and upright when on the field. Avoiding unnecessary hits will be key. And that means making sure he has the players in front of him to protect his butt.  

Allen, 27, is entering his sixth NFL season and should be in the prime of his career. If the Bills get the supporting cast around him that can block and be productive weapons then Allen can keep making plays that keep the Bills in contention for years to come. BUT he needs to limit those turnovers and make better red zone decisions. He does that, then yes the Bills can make the playoffs and as well as the Super Bowl and maybe even win it when they get there.

4) As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ QB this season Baker Mayfield took the team into the playoffs by leading the Bucs to a 6-2 record during the team’s last 8 games of the season. During that stretch he completed 63.1% of his passes with 17 touchdowns to 5 interceptions for a 102.2 passer rating. He then led the team to a Wild Card win and then gave the Bucs a fighting chance in the Divisional Round game versus the Detroit Lions albeit in a losing effort.

This off-season will the Buccaneers sign Mayfield to a long term contract extension and in the process pay him top ten QB money? Why or why not?

The Buccaneers need to lock up Baker Mayfield for multiple seasons after what he did this season. He put up numbers comparable to Tom Brady’s last season in Tampa. He had a perfect passer rating against the Packers, in Lambeau, a feat that has never been done before. He delivered when he needed to. He had an outstanding season, driving the Buccaneers’ offense some weeks.

The only problem was that he would disappear other weeks. Which I think is just something that you need to expect from him. Over 4,000 yards passing, 28 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. Not too shabby. In both playoff games he had over 330 passing yards and threw three touchdowns (the two interceptions against Detroit proved costly). He had ten games with multiple touchdown passes thrown. He had a good run game to assist him as well. But he put his stamp on the job, and the Buccaneers need to keep him for the future and build off of him.

I don’t know if he deserves top-ten quarterback money, but he needs a long-term deal and for Tampa to make him the long-term starter at quarterback. 

If the Buccaneers don’t sign Baker  Mayfield to a contract extension and somehow work out the money so it is agreeable to all parties involved then the team  is being a completely short sighted and without a doubt stupid.

Nuff said.

5) Who wins the AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens? Why?

Give me Baltimore in this game.

While the Chiefs were able to win both games against good teams, including gnawing out a nail-biter in Buffalo in Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game in sixteen playoff starts, I just don’t think they have the offensive firepower to overcome the dominating defense we’ve seen from the Baltimore Ravens week in and week out. The other factor from Baltimore is how they were able to just stuff the Texans’ offense closed. They dominated in their big games this year, annihilating the 49ers on Christmas, shutting down the Dolphins when they needed to in order to lock up the number one seed in the AFC. They dominated the Lions when they played them, and that was when Detroit and Jared Goff were running red hot. The Ravens are a force. And they’re going to be too tough to overcome. You need to score points on them. Their offense is going to find the end zone. They have a very nice run game with Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and Lamar Jackson (even though he’s taken a step back from running how he used to in previous seasons). Lamar also has been able to find a lot of weapons this year, they haven’t suffered the drop curse throughout the season, and he’s overcome injuries like with them losing Mark Andrews. Speaking of Andrews, Harbaugh has said that he’s hopeful he can come back, which would be a huge addition for the offense, even with keeping Likely in a prominent role after he stepped up like a top tight end after Andrews’ injury. Marlon Humphrey might also be available for the Chiefs’ game, which would bolster up the defense just that much more. Overall, Baltimore is going to be too tough for Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes to overcome and get some traction against, and Baltimore will be headed to Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII.

I’ve been going back and forth with this for the past few days now and I frankly I am still not sure which team I want to pick.

Everything I go over from Lamar Jackson’s performance this season, especially against playoff level teams to the Ravens top notch defense play this season tells me to go with the Ravens.

Yet the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. The Mahomes factor can never be discounted.  

And I may wind up cursing myself out over this in the end but…

I’m taking the Chiefs.