MLBRT 9/26/2024

The questions and discussion…  

As the 2024 season winds down…

1) With between 7 and 8 games left for the contending AL Wild Card teams the  Orioles lead the pack by 4½ games and are essentially assured one of the Wild Card spots. Four teams are in the mix for the remaining two places and just two games separate the second place team from fifth place team… Royals (+½), Twins (0), Tigers (-½) and Mariners (-2).   

Which two teams take the final AL Wild Cards? Why? 

The Royals are going to grab one of the American League Wild Card spots.

That leaves one spot open for three teams, and while I would love to go with the Mariners, I just don’t think they have enough support from pitching or their overall line-up outside of Julio Rodriguez, who’s back to his normal self since July 4th. The Twins have been a very good team and own the head-to-head match-up between them and Detroit. But Detroit just took the lead on Sunday after beating the Orioles and winning the series.

Detroit is on fire as of late, and these were non-traditional starter games in which they didn’t have a starter make a true start on Saturday or Sunday. On Sunday, they had Tyler Holton start off the game and pitched two innings. Then it was the bullpen the rest of the way. Saturday’s game featured three innings from “starter” Reese Olson. Monday starts with Tarik Skubal, who is on his way to winning the American League Cy Young Award. He’s been automatic this season and I think that’s going to be the difference maker. The Twins have been moving backwards while the Tigers are red hot and moving forward, at 7-3 in their last ten compared to 3-7 by Minnesota and Baltimore and 2-8 by Kansas City.

Detroit is on their way to the playoffs. 

With four games left in everyone’s schedule this is mostly going to come down to who has the easier schedule in those games an this is how I see things shaking out…

The Orioles lead the Al Wild Card standings by three games and unless they lose out they will; most likely keep that spot. However in an interesting turn of events Baltimore closes out the seson with Minnesota. More on that in a bit…

For intents and purposes, the last two AL Wild Cards comes down to Kansas City, Detroit and Minnesota…

Minnesota is right now two games out from being the third Wild Card and they play Miami tonight (9/26) and then end their season with Baltimore. I’ll give Minny the game against Miami … but then… Baltimore enters the picture in a big way.

Baltimore plays the New York tonight, and they need to beat the Yankees and then sweep Minny for them to win the AL East. In my opinion… that ain’t gonna happen. Baltimore then closes out their season by playing three games with Minnesota. Minnesota is not sweeping Baltimore. And I doubt they will take two games from the Orioles but the since the O’s already will have locked up being the first Wild Card it does leave the door open for some strange things to still happen… However Minny is right now two and a half games out from being the third Wild Card and I got them losing at least one game versus Baltimore… so hold that thought…  

Going into today’s games KC and Detroit were in a flat out tie for the second and third spots and both teams won their afternoon games leaving them in that flat out tie.

Kc ends their seson with games against Atlanta.

And Detroit ends their season with games versus the White Sox.

Detroit right now is hotter than a ghost pepper patch and will likely sweep the Sox. Tigers get the second AL Wild Card.

Leaves us with Minny.. who as noted above are sitting two and a half  games out of being a Wild Card and about to play Baltimore. In effect they need to sweep to have a shot at getting into the playoffs and KC needs to get swept by the Braves to miss the playoffs. Neither of those things will happen. KC is in and Minny is out.

The AL Wild Cards set up like this… Baltimore, Detroit and Kansas City. In that order.

2) On Thursday Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani became the first player in recorded Major League Baseball history to both homer and steal 50 times in a single season by slugging three home runs and stealing two bases and driving in 10 runs.

Only six players have ever recorded a 40-40 season and adding 10 more home runs and 10 more stolen bases on top of that to join Ohtani in the new 50/50 club would be in a word… Tough.  

With that established …

Which players presently in MLB have a shot at “equaling” Ohtani’s feat and potentially join him in his newly created 50/50 club? Why?

I think there’s only two players who have a shot at this 50/50 club in the future. Ronald Acuña Jr. is one, but he has to stay healthy for a full season. The other is Bobby Witt Jr, who has been on an absolute tear this season and will only improve in the next couple of years as he reaches his prime. While I think this club is very, very difficult to obtain, I think those two players have the best shot at attempting to join Ohtani.

This season, Bobby Witt is in the 30/30 club. Last season, he was in the 30/40 club and one stolen base away from 50. It’s year three for him. He has time to grow. He’s only improving. Last year, Acuña Jr. had 43 home runs and 73 stolen bases. He was 7 home runs shy of this new 50/50 club, and when he’s completely healthy, it’s obtainable from him. His other full season in 2019 with 41 home runs and led the league, also, with 37 stolen bases, before the bases were bigger and stealing was more prevalent. A healthy season, Acuña Jr. can obtain this, and with better odds than Witt Jr currently has. 

I got three players who I think could have a shot at equaling Ohtani’s extraordinary feat of 50/50… Ronald Acuña Jr., Elly De La Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr.

First and foremost all three have time on their side as the oldest guy is Acuña (27 in December), followed by Witt (24) and then Cruz (22).

Ronald Acuña Jr. just last year became the sixth MLB player to have ever hit 40 HRs and steal 40 bases by slugging 41 and stealing 73. Which by the way set him up to e the first player to have ever attained those numbers. Personally I think he has the best shot of joining Ohtani in the 50/50 club, but he needs to do it in the next few years as he ain’t getting younger and the wear and tear on his legs from stealing as much as he does will eventually begin to wear his body down and it will become more difficult as the years go for him to equal Ohtani’s feat.

I then think the youngest of the group in Elly De La Cruz has the next best shot.

First Cruz right now leads ML with 65 SB this season. So that is a give known that he can steal  at least 50. And the 22-year old has also hit 25 HRs this season so the book is still out on whether he can eventually attain the 50 HR threshold. Given his age I think his power numbers will definitely go up but up to 50? That’s the million dollar question with Cruz. Time will tell but at the minimum he has a half way decent shot to maybe join Ohtani in the 50/50 club.

Then there is Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt is having what many might call a career year as he presently leads the majors with a .332 BA along with 32 HRs and 31 SBs. This is Witt’s second year in a row attaining at least 30 HRs and 30 SBs and for his three year career is now averaging 29 home runs and 38 stolen bases per 162 games.

Witt stole 49 bases last season so since he stole 49 last season we know that ability is there and like Cruz the question becomes… Can he up his power to the 50 HR level needed to join Ohtani?

I’ll say it a definite maybe.

Witt tends to be player who wants to hit the ball up the middle to keep things moving along by getting on base; driving in runs and by being on base setting up the batters who follow him in the batting order to drive him in to score.  

If Witt ever decides become a little more pull happy he has the potential to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases.

Personally I would not go laying down any big bucks on joining Ohtani…

Everything for Witt seems to be working out just fine the way he is currently going about his MLB game so why sacrifice that game to replace it with one that has more power so he can have the “honor” of being a 50/50 player?

I give Witt the longest odds of three of ever becoming a member of the 50/50 club.

3) In becoming the first player to surpass 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a single season in MLB history Shohei Ohtani added another piece to his growing baseball legacy and inclusion in the conversation of “Who is the greatest baseball player ever?”

So let’s ask what could be considered the ultimate Ohtani question…

Has Shohei Ohtani accomplished enough during his present 7-year MLB career to be a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame? Why or why not?

I think, in the short time (wow, seven years already) that we’ve been graced with the presence of Shohei Ohtani, he’s done enough to enter the Baseball Hall of Fame. He’s not only hit at insane clips, but he’s been an outstanding pitcher as well. We haven’t seen a dominant dual-threat player like this since Babe Ruth around a century ago. In seven years, he’s amassed 224 home runs, 141 stolen bases, 156 OPS+, .280 batting average and 865 hits (a quarter of his hits have been home runs). He’s had two MVP awards (and a third this season), one top-five finish in the Cy Young voting and a Rookie of the Year award while also making the All-Star Game in each of the last four seasons, including this season. Pitching, he’s owned a 3.01 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 142 ERA+, 3.30 FIP, 608 strikeouts and averaged over 10 strikeouts/nine innings every season while posting a 3.51 strikeout-to-walk ratio career number. With these numbers, he doesn’t need to show much more to be elected in the Baseball Hall of Fame, I think now ((personal wise) is just acquiring a Cy Young Award, more MVPs and trying to get 100% voting on his initial ballot.

I’m going to keep this real simple…

In his 7 years in MLB he currently has achieved winning a Rookie of the Year award, 2 Silver Sluggers, 2 AL MVPs and 3 All-Star selections and with his current offensive year while without question be adding another MVP (NL) and Silver to this trophy case. He’s the first player ever to get to 50 HRs and 50 SBs and currently is the NL leader in both categories a well as runs scored ( 130), RBIs (125), OPS (.386), slugging average (.642), OPS (1.027) and WAR (8.6) while stealing 56 bases making him just 9 short of the NL and MLB lead in that category.

I don’t know if he’ll ever attain 50/50 again but I do think the numbers we see him having this year will be closer to the numbers we get to see from him every year for the foreseeable future. Right now Baseball-Referne.com has him avenging 106 runs and RBIs, 42 HRs, 27 SBs while slashing .280/.370/.573 and I think those averages will go up and will go up drastically.  

And I haven’t even begun talking about his pitching yet…

As a pitcher his career record is 38-19 for an exceptional .667 win/loss percentage while he strikes out about 10 or 11 hitters for every 9 innings pitched. He has a career ERA of 3.01 which by today’s standards is pretty damn good (especially considering he bats full time) while his WHIP sits at a very nice 1.082.

All in all… I think it comes he has done enough, especially as a two-way player, to get serious consideration to be included into the Hall if for some unfathomable reason he had to stop playing the game tomorrow.

4) Which NL team, that had high pre-season expectations for the 2024 season, was the most disappointing team this season? Why?

Most disappointing National League team would be the Atlanta Braves, but they do have a little asterisk next to their disappointment as they not only lost Spencer Strider in the beginning of the season, but also Ronald Acuna Jr. They’ve had Chris Sale have a fantastic, Cy-Young-winning season in place of Strider, but that’s been a big hurdle to jump over as not having him in addition, but rather a replacement. They’ve also had to replace Acuna Jr on the year and while they had high expectations of World Series aspirations, competing with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in baseball, they’re currently sitting in third place in the NL East behind the Phillies and Mets, and are currently two games behind the Mets in the NL Wild Card standings. This would be a complete disaster of a season for the Braves. Another disappointment has been the Reds, as they’re completely out of playoff contention, couldn’t compete for the division, and haven’t lived up to the type of season they saw last year that shocked a lot of baseball. The Cubs are in the same boat, as a lot of media were under the assumption that with Craig Counsell taking over the reigns, as well as getting some solid additions in Shota Imanaga, they’ve had a lot of disappointments from the pitching staff this season and couldn’t muster up enough to compete with the Brewers this season in the Central race. 

I have to agree with Dan here, I think the Braves seson went south in a hurry and right have them fighting tooth and nail just to survive the regular season and make it into the playoffs. There were supposed to win the AL East and be jockeying with the Dodgers for the top spot in the NL in the playoffs but instead are not even a playoff team.

Injuries spelled a big part in why the Braves season was not up to their usual standards but then that’s the way the baseball sometimes crumbles.

5) Which AL team, that had high pre-season expectations for the 2024 season ,was the most disappointing team this season? Why?

Can I say the Chicago White Sox, who have posted 120 losses and tied the 1962 Amazin’ Mets for the most losses in baseball since the early 1900s? Nobody was expecting Chicago to be this bad, even their roster construction wasn’t this bad on paper.

However, I think the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers are complete disappointments this season.

Texas won the World Series last year. Now? Eliminated from the postseason and a massive disappointment. While they weren’t expected to repeat as World Series winners, they were expected to at least compete for the AL West divisional crown and come out on top of the division. Instead, they’re under .500 and 11 games out of first place. The best they can finish? Exactly at .500, but they have to win out, which isn’t likely.

The Orioles were expected to be division winners and were a top favorite to win the AL pennant. As I currently type this out, they’re in first in the Wild Card standings, and 3-7 in their last ten games with red-hot Detroit on their tail, after just taking two-of-three from them in the weekend series. They have a series against the Yankees starting tonight, which they will have to sweep, and then sweep their final season series against the Twins. They also need the Yankees to get swept in their season finale against the Pirates, which will be tough for Pittsburgh to handle. A lot of disappointment, but a lot of teams have enjoyed a lot of joy off of these teams’ disappointing seasons.  

I’m going with the White Sox.

Yeah everyone and their brother and sister had the Sox not doing very good this season but to be so bad that they established a new modern day record as the team with the most single season losses?

 Fuhgeddaboud it!

They win the “Loser of the Year” award hands down. No competition.

And that all amounts to team being the most disappointing team in all of MLB.

Extra Innings…