MLBRT 9/19/2024

The questions and discussion…  

As the 2024 season winds down…

1) A lot has been published in the various online sports sites and in the media that the AL MVP award is essentially between the Royals Bobby Witt Jr. and the Yankees Aaron Judge, and that each player is arguably the guy that drives their respective team in their drive to be a playoff team in 2024.  

However considering that both Judge and Witt Jr. have entered into what are seemingly late-season downturns in their statistical offensive categories that are most used by the voters for the MVP award… 

Is the season that Juan Soto is having for the Yankees thrusting him into being a serious contender, as well as maybe arguably the new front runner, for the AL MVP Award? Why or why not?

I don’t think the season that Juan Soto having puts him at the top, or with the struggles of Aaron Judge recently, it now propels him higher up in the rankings to be in the conversation to take number one. The biggest reason for this is Aaron Judge. Having two MVP candidates on one team, ultimately, hurts the chances of both players winning.

With the better season Juan Soto is having, not getting affected by a cold streak as the season is winding down, it will actually hurt Aaron Judge in the final MVP rankings. Which will propel Bobby Witt Jr. up the rankings and could well give him the nod if it comes down to the final days, or a couple of votes between Judge and Witt. 

Judge leads MLB in HRs (53), RBIs (136, walks (125), on-base percentage (.455), slugging percentage (.689) and OPS (1.142) and WAR (9.8) along solid defense in center field.

Witt leads MLB in batting average (.331, runs scored (124), hits (201); second in slugging percentage (.598), doubles (44), and WAR (9.2); third in triples (11) and OPS (.985), fifth in OBP (.387) and has hit 32 homers and stolen 30 bases for his second straight 30-30 season, along with Gold Glove-caliber shortstop. And as good a season as he is having, it won’t be enough to top Judge in the voting for the AL MVP.

Soto has put together an excellent season himself with his 120 runs scored (2^nd MLB), 103 RBIs, 40 HRs, 124 walks (2^nd MLB), .418 OBP (2^nd MLB). .993 OPS, .575 slugging percentage (5^th MLB) and 7.7 WAR (5^th MLB), along with above average defense in right field.

But guess what? As with Witt, it also isn’t good enough to come close to toppling Judge for winning the AL MVP.  

 But while Soto might finish third in the AL voting for the MVP award he will without a doubt be the biggest winner in the upcoming off-season as his all-star caliber season should set him up to land a contract of more than $600 million in free agency.

2) Leaving out who is or is not the most likely player to win the MVP in their respective leagues…

Who is the most outstanding offensive player of the year in MLB this season? Why?

The most outstanding offensive player in all of baseball is Shohei Ohtani.

Having a season that’s nearing the first-ever 50-50 batter, from a designated hitter, nonetheless, is absolutely incredible. He wasn’t previously known as a big base stealer but was able to add that to his arsenal. With having to sit out from pitching for this season, he’s taken his game to another level. He’s featured in a very good lineup that present with excellent opportunities to total up various offensive statistics and along with his very probable 50 HR and 50 SB season as he presently has 47 and 48 respectively he has 117 runs scored, 106 RBIs and 76 walks.  

He’s the National League MVP front-runner for a reason, and he’s been the best offensive player in baseball this season. 

After crunching the numbers for my answer to question 1, and despite the year Shohei Ohtani is having, I was all set to anoint Aaron Judge as the most outstanding offensive player in MLB in 2024.  

Then this afternoon (9/19) the Dodgers and the Marlins played a game and slugged 3 HRs and stole 2 bases and drove in 10 runs and scored 4 times. The HRs and SBs made him the first player ever in major-league history with at least 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season. He now has 51 HRs (1^st NL/2^nd MLB), 51 stolen bases (2^nd MLB), 123 runs scored (2^nd MLB), 1.005 OPS (2^nd ML), 377 total bases (1^st MLB) and .629 slugging percentage (2^nd MLB) and is the presumptive NL MVP by a wide margin in my opinion.  

Anyone who picks Ohtani for the most outstanding offensive MLB player will not get an argument from me.

As for my vote… I’m struggling to not say Judge and call it for Ohtani.

At this point, right now before Judge has one at bat in tonight’s game, I’ll call it a flat out tie between the two players. What goes down during the remainder of the season will be the ultimate determining factors of who “wins” the “Most Outstanding Player Award” in MLB.

3) Who is your AL Cy Young Award winner? Why?

For the American League Cy Young Award, I believe that Tarik Skubal has this race locked down and it’s his to lose.

Despite pitching for the Detroit Tigers, who are 77-73 on the year and in fourth place in the AL Central, he’s posted very good numbers with a 2.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP with 214 strikeouts to only 33 walks for a 6.5 K/BB rate. He’s leading the American League in strikeouts, as well as posting a 5.9 WAR (per ESPN). And to show just how dominating he’s been this season and really a difference-maker for the Tigers, he’s posted a 16-4 record, which, includes 21 quality starts in 29 games started on the season. 

AL Cy Young is Tarik Skubal.

Skubal has 17 wins (2^nd MLB/1^st AL) and only 4 losses with a league-leading 2.48 ERA and a AL-leading 221 strikeouts in 185 innings. In addition he has He also has a 0.94 WHIP (2^nd MLB & AL) and is second among all MLB pitchers with a 6.0 WAR.

That makes him my top choice to win this season’s AL Cy Young Award.

4) Who is your NL Cy Young Award winner? Why?

In the National League, it’s new-comer Chris Sale who gets my vote.

After having a couple off-seasons, according to his standards, he’s been amazing since getting traded from the Red Sox to the Braves this off-season. According to recent ESPN statistics he’s leading the MLB in ERA (2.35), strikeouts (219) and WAR (6.3). He’s posted a 17-3 record, and in 172.2 innings pitched he has just 37 walks allowed and has kept the ball in the ballpark very efficiently this season, only allowing 8 total home runs. He posted a 1.00 WHIP on the season, but he doesn’t allow those baserunners to score. He’s kept the Braves afloat with the loss of Spencer Strider early in the season. 

NL Cy Young winner is Chris Sale.

This has been a race between Sale and Wheeler all season long, but Sale pulled away in the second half when he went 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA and one home run allowed in 62.2 innings.

Sale leads the NL and MLB in wins (18), ERA 2.38, strikeouts (225), 18 wins, in wins (17), ERA (2.35), strikeouts (219), and in pitching WAR (6.3). Plus he has averaged a MLB-leading 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings with a decent 1.00 WHIP (2^nd NL/6^th MLB). And arguably Sale is probably the biggest reason why the Atlanta Braves still have a shot at being in the playoffs as the third Wild Card team in the NL.

That makes him my top choice to win this season’s NL Cy Young Award

5) Right now the Wild Card race in the NL appears to be between four teams… the Padres, D’backs, Mets and Braves… that are all within 2 to 3 games of being one of the three NL Wild Card teams in the NL playoffs.

Which team does not make the NL playoffs as one of the Wild Card teams? Why

Out of all these teams, I feel like the team that isn’t going to get into the postseason are the New York Mets.

The Padres and Diamondbacks have been very good in a very tough NL West division, while also playing some good baseball as the season comes down the stretch.

The Padres have pitching, and their offense has been clicking this season, as evident by their +85 run differential on the season.

Arizona made it to the World Series last year after not even looking like a playoff team in August, so they have experience in making late-season pushes and staying afloat in the Wild Card race, which I think is going to be the difference maker for them this season.

The Braves have the NL Cy Young pitcher as their ace and their offensive is still explosive.

And the Mets have had some injuries happen with their top players (their MVP Lindor was just sent for an MRI for his back); don’t have a secured bullpen and the Mets just lack any consistency over the season. They really sky-rocketed up the rankings by having a very hot August month, but I just don’t see them being able to pull it out and stay ahead of the Atlanta Braves.

They’re the odd-team out in the Wild Card standings.  

I think the San Diego Padres with a 2½ game lead in the NL WC race, are essentially a lock to be the NL’s first Wild Card team. I won’t say a guaranteed lock right now because they have a potentially crucial season ending 3-game series versus the D’backs which could change things drastically in the positioning in the NL Wild Card race. But with just 9 games remaining in the regular season schedule  I think they will be just good enough down the stretch that they take that first spot.

 That leaves the D’backs, Mets and Braves to fight out for the second and third spots.

In addition to that 3-game series with the Padres, the D’backs have 4 games with Milwaukee and 3 with San Francisco. Not a cake walk by any means, but similar to the Padres I think they win just enough games down the stretch to pull out one of the two remaining Wild Card spots.

Which brings me to the Braves and Mets.

This could come down to these two teams upcoming 3-game series next week, but the Mets end their season with 4 games versus Philadelphia, then come the 3 games versus Atlanta and end with 3 games against Milwaukee. While the Braves end their season with 3 versus Miami, then the 3 versus the Mets and end with 3 versus Kansas City.

It’s the level and quality of the competition for the Mets in their remaining schedule against the level and quality of the competition for Atlanta in their remaining schedule… I just don’t see the Mets winning more game than they will lose in their games in the rest of their schedule while I do see Atlanta winning more than they lose in their games in the rest of their schedule.

Mets are odd team out in the NL Wild Card race.

Extra Innings…