MLBRT 8/8/2024

The questions and discussion…

1) On Saturday night (8/3) Shohei Ohtani swiped three bases in a 10-0 win against the Oakland Athletics and became the 70th player in Major League Baseball history to achieve a 30 HR-30 SB season, euphemistically known as the 30/30 club. 

There is the very elite club 40/70 club of which Ronald Acuna Jr. is the only member (41 HRs/73 SBs/2023 Atlanta Braves).

Then there is the 40/40 club, of which there are 4 members…  Jose Canseco (1988 Oakland Athletics); Barry Bonds (1996 San Francisco Giants; Alex Rodriguez (1998 Seattle Mariners) and Alfonso Soriano (2006 Washington Nationals).

Part A: Is Ohtani a lock to become a 40/40 club member this season? Why or why not?

There has yet to have been a player to hit 50 homeruns and steal 50 bases in one season.

Part B: Will this be the season MLB sees a 50/50 club become a reality, and will Ohtani be the creator and inaugural member of that 50/50 club? Why or why not?

Shohei Ohtani is an absolute lock to join the 40/40 club.

What’s really going to excel his stolen base numbers is keeping him as the leadoff hitter in the Dodgers’ lineup even when Mookie Betts returns to the lineup. Since this question was posed, he’s ramped up his numbers to 34 home runs and 32 stolen bases. So only six more home runs and eight more stolen bases in 48 games should be a lock to obtain.

However, getting to the 50/50 club is going to be very tough and I don’t think this is going to be the year that you see Ohtani creating the new club. Based on the rate of home runs per games played this season, he should hit 14-15 more home runs this season putting his total around 48-49 at the end of the season, just shy of 50. He should hit 13-14 more stolen bases before the year is up, which leaves him at 45-46 stolen bases. So he’ll come close to the 50/50 club, but just shy.

Absolute lock for 40/40. 

As of Thursday (8/8) Ohtani has 34 HRs and 32 SBs, putting him on pace for 49 HRs and steal 46 bases for the season.

Simply put, he is a lock to join the 40/40 club and I’ll give him a 40-60 chance to be the inaugural member of a 50 HR and 50 SB clubs .

While I wouldn’t bet against Ohtani accomplishing getting to 50 home runs and stolen bases this seson I personally don’t seeing him getting there.

2) Major League Baseball’s trade deadline came and went, and it did so with a whimper rather than a bang.  There was a noticeable lack of big names on the move with probably the two best starting pitchers… Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal… who seemed to have a realistic shot at being traded, remaining in place.

There were trades, plenty of them, but they seldom featured star power… either on the big-league or minor-league front.  the deadline to be a wee bit boring … well, you weren’t alone in that respect. For the most part, from the fan to MLB front offices found the trade deadline to be somewhat lackluster or even boring.

With this in mind, why did this year’s deadline fall flat? 

The deadline fell flat because a lot of big names on teams that were rumored to be moving actually stayed in place because there’s a lot of teams that are still in contention.

Trading Pete Alonso wasn’t a great option for the Mets while they’re still competing for a Wild Card slot. For the Tigers or White Sox trading a top pitcher under team control wasn’t the best decision for either team. The Toronto Blue Jays are still trying to keep up in the American League and didn’t want to trade Vlad Jr or any of their other big names.

There were some big names that moved, but no superstars, which didn’t surprise me. Teams that are already towards the top weren’t looking to make major splashes, but rather button up areas they were lacking in, like getting bullpen help or depth pieces.

So while the trade deadline didn’t feature any superstars or huge names like in years’ past, I think this was still an exciting and very active trade deadline. 

If the commissioner’s office/MLB’s goal is to ultimately create some form of equity  withing MLB among the franchise then 2024 is an indicator it is creeping ever closer to achieving that goal.

As of today…August 8… 9 of the 15 AL teams have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs and in the NL it’s even a greater percentage of the teams… 12 out of the 15 NL teams have that same chance of making the playoffs.

This alone is probably the biggest reason that this year’s trade deadline was moribund or lackluster.

Why sell if your team as comprise has that shot at being a playoff team?

As for why the arguably two best starting pitchers…White Sox’ Garrett Crochet and Tigers’ Trik Skubal…  didn’t move by the deadline… I got two possible reasons: (1) both pitchers are foundational pieces for their team’s future rotations and (2) if either team does move either pitcher I think they will be able to get better return in the off-season than thye would have gotten at this year’s trade deadline.  

3) In a recent game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the  New York Yankees Gleyber Torres hit a rocket to left field off of the Jays’ pitcher and stood at home plate admiring his shot believing it to be a home run.  The ball hit off the wall and Torres only managed to get to first base for a long single instead of being at least on second base with a double. Two batters after the “single,” Anthony Volpe doubled, and Torres wound up being cut down at home trying to score all the from first on Volpe’s hit. That’s Torres fifth time this season that he has been thrown out at the plate which leads MLB.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone then removed Torres from the game.

Torres, 27, was an All-Star in his first two seasons but since then has been a bit of a disappointment. At the time he was benched Torres was slashing .236/.311/.363 and 0.4 WAR. He’s set to hit free agency after the season.

Combine with his sometimes poor play this seson along with the acquiring Jazz Chisolm, Jr. … who is under team control through 2026 and originally was a middle infielder in his career… will Torres still be the Yankees starting second baseman when the 2025 regular season begins? Why or why not?  

Gleyber Torres is not going to be the starting second baseman for the Yankees to start the 2025 season.

After a very disappointing season this season, and with the offense having big cold spouts as well as losing a large amount of games around the All-Star break while also having some of the same issues from last season it hasn’t been the best situation for Torres. He’s been known to strike out a lot in the past couple of seasons, especially without drawing many walks. This year, posting an 88 OPS+ has been very disappointing. Now, continuing to record outs at home which are huge no-nos and can’t be happening; watching a ball careen off the wall and completely missing the opportunity to get an extra base, which eventually led him to making another out at home, which cost the Yankees a run and that just can’t be happening.

And then after the Yankees acquired Jazz Chisholm, so now they can easily replace Torres and just not re-sign him and let him go in free agency.

So he’ll be in a different uniform next season and won’t be starting for the Yankees at second, or any position.

He’s gone after the season. .

Since Torres break-out season in 2019 when he slashed .278/.337/.535 with 38 HRs, 96 runs and 90 RBIs the Yankees and their fans, thought they had their best second baseman since Robison Cano played the position for the Bronx Bombers. Instead his career has been in a steady decline since 2019 and now in his walk year when he is due to become a free agent in the off-season, he appears to be bottoming out statistically and having in-games issues where he doesn’t appear to always have his head into the game while on the field defensively and now, with this latest incident when at bat.

Then the Yanks went out and got Jazz Chisholm at the trade deadline. While Chisholm played mostly center field last season he started his MLB career as second baseman who could also paly short. And now with the Yanks he has willingly… even though he never played the position before… begun playing third base to fill a big hole there. And he has so far done a decent job both in the field and at bat. In Chisholm the Yanks got a player who actually means it when he says he is willing to do whatever the team needs him to do so the team can win games. And he is not due to become a free agent until after the 2026 World series… although he is eligible for arbitration in each of the next two seasons unless the Yankees can come to terms on mutually agreeable deal before then.

Long story short… Gleyber Torres may be playing second base in MLB in the 2025 season but it won’t be foe the New York Yankees.

4) On Sunday (8/4) the Chicago White Sox lost their 20th consecutive game, the majors’ longest skid in 36 years and one short of the American League record, and three short of the NL record.

The White Sox are now 27-87 on the year and are on pace for a 124-loss season which would surpass the modern MLB record of 120 for single-season losses by the 1962 New York Mets.

How bad will this White  Sox season ultimately be? Will they set a new MLB record for futility and be the “worst “ team ever in MLB? Why or why not?  

The White Sox are going to become the record-holders for most losses in a season.

They have almost no bright spots on this roster. While they had a 20-game losing streak, the next closest active losing streak in all of baseball was two games. The White Sox just can’t get offense. Their pitching is lacking. It’s just an awful team that’s just waiting for the season to end.

They don’t care about winning, they don’t care about losing, they just want to end the season.

Half this roster is going to be gone after the season. The coaching staff is on its way out the door. When we get down to the end of the season and teams are needing wins to keep up in the playoff race, it’s going to be even tough for the White Sox to maintain winning. They haven’t been able to do that all season. So I don’t see things changing for them.

They’ll win once every four games and finish worse than the 1962 New York Mets. 

On Monday, the Sox tied the American League record for consecutive losses, dropping their 21st straight game before finally picking up a win on Tuesday night in Oakland.

The 1962 Mets record after 110 games was 29-81 for a . 263 winning percentage and wound up with a final record of 40-120 with a .250 winning percentage.

The Sox after 110 games are 27-83 for a .245 winning percentage which puts them on pace to end the seson at 39-123.

In simple terms as can be, this White Sox team is bad. They are in fact so bad that their  negative-247 run differential that is 70 runs worse than the next closest team.

Bottom line is I think the Chicago White  Sox will set a new record for team losses in a single season in 2024.

5) As of Sunday (8/4) the San Diego Padres (61-52) are second in the NL West 4½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Who wins the NL West when the regular season comes to a close? Why?

The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to win the NL West.

They’re the best team in the National League. They’ll be getting Mookie Betts back soon. They have one of the most dangerous lineups with their big three, including Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez playing big parts on the roster. Yamamoto should be returning shortly as well down the stretch to add to their pitching. Tyler Glasnow is still healthy and pitching at a dominant level. The Dodgers have the division in their control, and they’re going to win it by their high-flying offense. They also have the pitching. The Padres, player for player, cannot match the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are getting healthier… finally.

They should get Mookie Betts back for their stretch run in September and their starting pitching staff is beginning to round out into shape and being at its healthiest that its been all season.

Tyler Glasnow has returned from the IL… at the trade deadline they went out and got Jack Flaherty from the Tigers for catcher/first baseman Thayron Liranzo and shortstop Trey Sweeney… and they expect to eventually  get back from the IL Yoshinobu Yamamoto and walker Buehler… Buehler might be back within the next week or so in fact Yamamoto probably back in September.

Meaning that when the Dodgers get everyone back and up to speed then they will be a very difficult team to beat.

 I think in the end the Dodgers hold off an oncoming Padre team to win the NL West.  

Extra Innings…