MLBRT 8/22/2024

The questions and discussion…  

1) The Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, Orioles and Guardians are all teams that have been standouts in 2024. These same teams have also had stretches where they have struggled/been mired in deep slumps this season. With that in mind…

In your opinion, at this point in the season which team is deserving of being called the number one team? Why? 

If there ever was a season where there it could be said there was parity in MLB then this season probably come as close as ever to that becoming a fact as there could be.

As of tonight (Thursday, 8/22) there are eight teams… Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Phillies, Brewers, D’backs and Padres… that have at least 70 wins and from the top to the bottom) there is only a four game spread… Dodgers with 76 wins are at the top and the D’backs and Padres are tied with 72 wins at the bottom.

Out of the teams with the best overall records… Dodgers (76-52), Yankees (75-53), Phillies (74-52), Orioles (74-54) and Guardians (73-54)… the Dodgers are presently tied with D’backs as the “hottest” teams in MLB by virtue of each team going 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Since the D’backs trail the Dodgers in the  NL West by 4 games that kinda, sorta eliminates them as being called the “best” team at this time. Which means since the Dodgers have the most wins, and the best record…76-52… and are the only team with a W/L percentage above .590, along with that 7-3 record in their last 10 games  and the fact that they have followed a sub-.500 July by winning 13 of their first 19 games this month, I’ll say that they are… right now… the “best” team in MLB.

But that could literally change overnight the way things are going in the game these days.

2) The Atlanta Braves have won six straight NL East titles, and they last missed the playoffs in 2017, but that streak could be in jeopardy this season. A recent six-game losing skid, that included back-to-back shutout losses cut heavily into what was a solid lead atop the NL wild-card teams for most of the season. As of Sunday (8/18), Atlanta now holds a two-game lead over the Mets for the third wild-card spot in what has become a very the crowded wild-card race with the two teams jockeying back and forth for that last NL wild-card.

Will the Braves miss the playoffs this season? Why or why not?

The Braves are currently (as of 8/22) clinging to the third and final NL wild-card spot, by the slim margin of just 1½ games over the Mets. And there are four team… Giants, Cardinals, Cubs and Reds… within five games of them.

After being a juggernaut offensively last season the Braves started off somewhat hot… 19-9… this season but since the start of May the Braves are 7 games below .500 and have managed only one winning month during that stretch… barely… 14-13 in June Right now, they’re on pace for 86 wins, which would be their lowest full-season tally since 2017 and constitute a 20-game decline from what their record was last season. 

A big part of the problem is that the Braves lost their arguably two best players to injury with outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr.  and ace starting pitcher Spencer Strider out for the entire season. Losing two players of that quality hurts big time regardless of what team it is or how deep their roster might be.

The other big issue for the Braves is that, outside of losing their best starter in Strider, they have had to use at least 13 pitchers in a starting role this season. Meaning that almost every one of their possible starters has had to deal with an injury that caused them to miss a turn in the Braves rotation at some point this season. That kind of irregularity in their rotation has been a killer to getting any sort of a winning streak established.

The good news is that some of their starters are nearing returning to the Braves rotation and barring setbacks should be a big plus for their rotation as the team begins the final push to stay i the Wild Card mix as the season nears its close.

Add in that for rest of the season way, the Braves will play the final 36 games of their season against opponents that on average have a record that is below .500, which means the Braves rank 18^th in strength of schedule left to play. That’s a potential soft edge for the Brave.

As of right now, the Braves according to SportsLine have a 52.4% chance of making the postseason which is the top percentage among the teams that are shooting for that last Wild Card spot. But according to SportsLine the Mets have the next softest remaining schedule and they are just that 1½ games behind the Braves right now for that last spot.

So bottom line prediction is that I see it coming down to a nip and tuck battle between the Braves and the Mets for that last Wild Card slot and I think the Mets get just a tad hotter than the Braves as the season winds down and they pull it out…

The Braves miss the playoffs this season. …  

3) For the last several years, Major League Baseball has had internal conversations about how to make starting pitchers more relevant in games such as they were decades in the past when starters went deep into games and accumulated a fair number of complete games.  

Now according to an ESPN report, MLB is having a serious discussion  around the idea of requiring pitchers to work at least six innings in games that they start. The report adds that exceptions to the letter of the proposed rule would be if  the starting pitcher threw 100 or more pitches, gives up four or more earned runs or is injured (with a required injured list stint to avoid manipulation).

What are your thoughts regarding the possibility that MLB will create rule that requires starting pitchers go at least six innings in games? Why?  

In an attempt to speed up the pace of play, MLB introduced a pitch clock along with a few other new rules last season. And though there was some griping early on the players adjusted and the average length of a game dropped from over three hours in 2022 to two hours and 40 minutes in 2023.

Now it appears that MLB, in an attempt to restore the “prominence of the starting pitcher,” is thinking about making a rule for where all starters must pitch at least six innings. With, of course, the noted exceptions that appear above.

And me? I’m all for it.

However if the day should come to pass where that rule becomes reality then MLB teams are going to have to seriously change how they go about developing their starting pitchers.  

The biggest issue being that any player desiring to become a starter would need to build up their pitch counts in the minor leagues as well as develop their repertoire of pitches so they could get through an opposing lineup at least three times. Meaning that instead of focusing on velocity as they presently are wont to do in the how they teach pitchers today, the pitching coaches in the minors would need to place an emphasis on stamina instead of just throwing hard heat with movement. And that change… from throwing with velocity to developing their stamina so they can go deep into games… could mean a reduction in Tommy John Surgeries (Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction) that are plaguing MLB in recent years.

So yeah, I’m all for this potential 6-inning rule for starters.  

At this point in the season the oddsmakers have Aaron Judge as the heavy favorite to win the AL MVP award. And while the NL MVP race is a lot tighter than it was just a few weeks ago Shohei Ohtani  is still the favorite to win the award by most oddsmakers.

With all this in mind… …

4) Who is your top “under-the-radar” pick to win the AL MVP award? Why?

Everyone tends to think that the only players who have even a smidgen of catching Judge for the AL MVP… with the assumption being that Judge keeps on raking the way that he presently is… are either KC’s Bobby Witt Jr, or Judge’ Yankees’ teammate Juan Soto.

I  think the guy who is really under the radar for the AL MVP is the Guardians’ Jose Ramirez.

He presently has the second most RBIs in all of MLB… behind Judge of course… along with 32 HRs, 27 doubles and 93 runs scored.

Most years a player with those numbers would be garnering a lot more MVP talk than Ramirez is presently getting.

So with that in mind, Jose Ramirez is my “under the radar” pick to win the AL MVP.  

5) Who is your top “under-the-radar” pick to win the NL MVP award? Why?

At one point this was Shohei Ohtani’s award to lose. Mostly due to his being a possible Triple Crown winner… leading the league in BA, HRs and RBIs… this season.

Now… a lot has changed since those conversations were being had…

In my opinion, right now the top two candidates to win the NL MVP are Ohtani (.291/.378/.610; 39 HRs, 88 RBI, 96 runs scored and 39 SBs) and the Braves Marcel Ozuna (.308/.380/.591; 37 HRs, 94 RBI, and 80 runs scored).

However my under the radar pick is the Mets’ Francisco Lindor…   

He currently is slashing .266/.339/.477 with 25 HRs, 73 RI, 85 runs score and 25 SBs. But since being moved to the lead off guy in the Mets’ batting order he offensive numbers have improve dramatically. If he can keep on improving at his current pace and get that BA of his up to around .300 then all his other stats should also see a big uptick and he should wind up getting a lot more talk about winning the NL MVP than he is getting now.

And that makes him my “under the radar” pick to win the NL MVP.

Extra Innings…