MLBRT 7/4/2024

   

The questions and discussion…

1) The Philadelphia Phillies (54-29/.651) are in first place in the NL East by seven games over the Atlanta  Braves 346-35/.568. No other team in the division is closer than 12 games  out of first place.

While unforeseen circumstances can occur in pennant races, at this point it does appear tha the Braves may be the only team that has a chance to catch the Phillies and win the division. So…

Can the Braves catch the Phillies or is it too late for two-team race in the NL East? Why or why not?

The Braves are not going to be able to catch the Philadelphia Phillies, although they will make it a fun race to watch until the last couple of weeks when it just becomes too tall of an order for Atlanta to overcome.

The Phillies have had one of the best pitching in all of baseball and their offense is clicking on all cylinders, even with injuries to multiple players, like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. They have a +123 run differential, which is best in baseball, and are 7-3 in their last ten games. They haven’t been hampered by the injuries to their players and the team continues to dominant opponents. Edmundo Sosa, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, JT Realmuto and Trea Turner have all been excellent outside of Schwarber & Harper (who should be in the MVP conversation this season) on offense, posting positive WARs, according to ESPN, and most (Stott at 1.9, Realmuto at 1.4) all above 2 (outside of Schwarber as well).

Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler are in the Cy Young conversations, Aaron Nola is having an excellent season and Christopher Sanchez is posting a 2.41 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in 16 starts. Having four dominant starters is dangerous and is the key to the Phillies running away with the NL East. 

As of today (7/4) the Phillies lead the NL East and the second place Braves by 8.5 games with about half of the season left to play. Among those game left 10 games are between the two East rivals.  While the odds are long it is obviously still very mathematically possible the Braves could catch the Phillies.

However…

The Phillies as a team are slashing .259 (3^rd/MLB)/.332 (3^rd/MLB)/.422 (6^th/MLB) wit h103 HRs (5^th/ML) , 431 runs (4^th/ML) and 413 RBIs (4^th/MLB). The Phillies offense simply is equal to any other team in MLB and in most game is just the better team with their bats.

Their pitching, however, is where they excel as a team. Their 3.09 ERA leads MLB by a fair amount and their 1.12 WHIP is second only to the Seattle Mariners.

Essentially they have the best rotation in baseball in terms of preventing runs and as they tend to go deep into game which saves their bullpen arms from being over extended and fresh for when they are needed to come into games in critical moments. With four starters that could arguably be in the NL CY Young conversation before all is said and done they have the capability to shut other teams down… their 8 shutouts are tied for 3^rd in MLB… leaving it up to their bats to score just enough to score just enough runs to usually walk away with a win.  

Their bullpen is not too shabby as well… 3.43 era (5^th /MLB) and 1.21 whip (8^th/MLB).  

Basically, the Phillies are very arguably the best team in baseball as I write this and I don’t see them falling into any long term funks.  

All this is to say that the Braves will need to perform at a level far above their competition for the rest of the season if they are to have a chance to catch the Phillies.  

Is it possible?

Sure as are a recent CBS Sports online column pointed out… “In 2022, the Braves were 10.5 games back on June 1 and still won the division with a monster finish. In 2021, they weren’t over .500 at all until Aug. 6. After being five games back on August 1, they went 36-18 the rest of the way and then they won the World Series.” So sure it is possible but seriously if the Phillies keep playing at their current level?  

I don’t think so.

So, no, the Braves won’t catch the Phillies. They might whittle the Phillies lead down a few pegs or so but in the end the Braves will finish the season second in the NL East and most likely be the first Wild Card.

2) Leaving aside the fact that Shohei Ohtani is an All-Star pitcher…

Who is the best offensive player in MLB? Why?

Best offensive player in MLB could easily go to Shohei Ohtani as well, but I’ll switch it up and pick Aaron Judge, who is in the Triple Crown race this season and has carried the Yankees’ offense for the past two seasons before getting some help in Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton this season (including others).

He’s a massive power hitter who recently set the American League home run record two seasons ago, is on pace to attack that number again this season and is consistent with getting on base and driving in runs. He does have 93 strikeouts but has drawn a walk 61 times this season. He’s leading the league (or MLB) in the following categories: doubles, home runs, RBIs, OBP, slugging, OPS, OPS+, total bases and grounded into double plays. While the last stat isn’t the best one you want to be leading, it’s almost irrelevant compared to the rest of his numbers. 

As far as I am concerned and as far as the statistics tell the story this season Aaron Judge is head and shoulders above the field in MLB this season.

Currently he leads all of MLB in HRs (32), RBI (83), Total Bases (219), Slugging (.703), OPS (1.135) and WAR (6.2) and his .433 OPB is second. In addition his 23 doubles leads the AL while his 67 runs scored fourth.

This present dominance that he is exhibiting leads me to conclude tha Aaron Judge is the best offensive player in MLB.   

Major League Baseball has seen only one Triple Crown winner since 1967 and that was when Miguel Cabrera did so in the American League in 2012. The National League hasn’t had one since 1937 when Hall of Famer Joe “Ducky” Medwick pulled it off.  

Presently there is player in both the Al and the NL that could lead their league in home runs, RBIs and batting average and thereby win the Triple Crown.

3) Shohei Ohtani, at this point in the season, is leading the NL pack in two categories… 25 HRs and .322 BA… and close in the third categories just 3 RBIs off the NL’s leader’s total of 64.

Will Ohtani win the Triple Crown in the NL? Why or why not?

I’m going to be positive here and say yes, he will.

He’s on an explosive Dodgers’ offense and is putting up consistent numbers. He’s a huge power hitter, so I don’t think that’s going to be an issue for him this season. He consistently gets on base, as he has shown in his time with the cross-town Angels, and he has loads of players that he can consistently drive in to boost up his RBI totals.

With a loaded lineup like in Los Angeles, giving Ohtani poor pitches to hit isn’t exactly ideal as that just means he’s on base for the next hitter to be able to bring him in with one swing of the bat. Opponents are stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to pitching Ohtani, so he’ll have ample opportunities to not only drive in runs or record hits, but also to keep tallying up the home run totals. 

As of today (7/4) Ohtani leads the NL in two of the Triple Crown categories with 27 HRs and a .319 BA. His 64 RBIs trail Alex Bohm the NL leader by just 6.

With the batters Ohtani has in front of him in the Dodgers’ batting order he will get more than enough opportunities to chip away at the NL RBI lead until it gets that feather in his cap too.  

But here is the situation for Ohtani… until  the 2023 season Ohtani had never hit over  .286. In 2023 he did surpass .300 with a .304 BA.

So I’m gonna say that the professional hitter that Ohtani is and the fact that this season he can solely concentrate on hitting that Ohtnai’s bat produces just enough hits to end up leading the NL in batting along with his leading the NL is HRs and RBIs thereby earning him the NL Triple Crown and most likely the NL MVP.

4) Aaron Judge is also leading the AL pack in two categories… 30 HRs and 79 RBIs… and his .310 BA is just .005 percentage points behind the AL batting average leader

Will Judge win the Triple Crown in the AL? Why or why not?

Let’s be positive for this question as well and say that yes, Aaron Judge reaches the Triple Crown.

Have we ever seen two Triple Crown winners from the National League and American League in the same season? This year will be the first, if not (you’ll have to fact-check me).

Aaron Judge has no problem hitting for power, or being able to drive in runs with Volpe consistently getting on base, Soto and Stanton around him in the lineup as well. I think he’ll continue to get good pitches to see, as is the case with Ohtani, due to Soto and Stanton surrounding him in the lineup, and the Yankees’ offense displaying a lot of success this season. The better the overall offense is, the better opponents have to pitch players, and Judge is no different than Ohtani in that regard.

Let’s make history this season. 

Judge presently (as of 7/4) leads the AL (And MLB) in HRs (32) and RBIs (83) two of the Triple Crown categories and his batting average, the third leg of the Crown,  is .314 which is currently tied of 3^rd in the AL. And therein lies his problem…

Until very recently he was leading the AL in BA and even now that .314 would have been within just a  percentage point of the AL leader maybe even just a few days Ago. However, the Guardians Steven Kwan who was battling injurie early in the year at one point did not have enough official ABs to qualify to be considered among the AL BA leaders. But now he has accumulated the necessary ABs, and his .367 BA leads everyone by a very wide margin.

Now here is my take on this…

Kwan in his previous two seasons in MLB has never hit over .298. And I am of the opinion he is going to see a few tough patches before the season ends and that BA is going to settle down a tad. The question is how far it will drop? And, how potent will Judge’s bat continue to be?

It’s going to be tough, but  I think Judge continues on his tear through the majors this season and gets that BA into the mid .320’s at the minimum and Kwan begins to come back to the pack.

I say Judge with a hot September and finish to the season catches Kwan for the AL BA title while setting a new AL HR record thus leading the AL (and MLB) in HRs and RBIs to add to his MLB resume.

5) Which free agent signing this off-season has so far had the most surprising and/or unexpected results? Why?

Jurickson Profar has been the most surprising free agent signing this off-season, and it’s been in a highly beneficial way for the San Diego Padres.

Signing a one-year, $1 million contract with the Padres this off-season, he has delivered in a big way batting .311 with 11 home runs and driving in 55 RBI to the tune of an OPS+ of 151. He has a .404 OBP, including only 51 strikeouts compared to 43 walks, which is always a great sign to see from contact hitters.

Surprisingly, at an extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark like Petco Park, he’s hit better at home than on the road. More home runs, (7 at home, 4 on road), better splits (over .300 batting average at home, compared to .299 on the road). OPS+ split relative to his overall OPS+ number is 121 at home to 81 on the road. His overall OPS+ numbers relative to league average at home is 171 compared to 129 on the road. In 15 more at-bats (12 plate appearances) on the road than at home, he has only one less hit at home compared to the road.

The free agent signing of the year.  

The biggest free agent surprise in the level of production this season is Jurickson Profar.

First and foremost he is having himself a career year and on track to hit well over .300 for the first time in his career along with being on track to have career highs in HRs, RBIs, runs scored, OBP, slugging and OPS. In addition his numbers have consistently been among the league leaders in many statistical categories and as a result the fans just awarded him his first starting All-Star selection in his 11-year career.

His one-year, one million dollar deal is the bargain of the off-season.

Extra Innings…

Happy and safe July 4th…