MLBRT 7/25/2024

The questions and discussion…

1) Pittsburgh Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes has started his MLB career with a 6-0 W/L record, 1.90 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. At this point assuming he avoids injuries and is a not a victim of any “ innings limitations” …

Is the NL Rookie of the Year Award his to lose? Or does he have significant competition with other rookies also having stellar inaugural MLB seasons who are in the running for the NL Rookie of the Year Award? Why or why not?

Shota Imanaga started off the season on fire giving and in his first 9 starts he gave up just five earned runs with a 5-0 W/L record and 0.84 ERA and was the early runaway leader to win the NL ROY.  In his 10^th game he came down to earth in a hard way when he gave up 7 earned runs and took his first loss of the season. In his next 8 games he yielded another 21 earned runs with 10 of those runs coming in a loss to the Mets in game 14. His record is now 8-2, with a 2.86 ERA, and 108 strikeouts in 104 innings.

He’s still in the running for the NL ROY award but his frontrunner status has been taken over by Pittsburgh’s rookie sensation Paul Skenes.

Since being called up to the Bigs on May 11, Skenes has started 11 games and has excelled with a 6-0 record, 1.90 ERA while striking out a third of the batters he has faced (89 strikeouts. 

In two of those 11 starts, Skenes didn’t allow a hit with maybe his best start of the year coming on July 11 when he tossed seven no-hit innings against the before he was pulled due to pitch count limitations after he totaled 99 pitches. Arguably that start, along with his overall record (6-0, 1.90 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 66.1 innings),  earned him the NL start in the All-Star game.

In his first start after the break he went 8.1 innings, struck out 8 and gave up just 2 earned runs but took the loss when the Pirates could only score 1 run in the game. But after 12 MLB starts his record now stands at 6-1, 1.93 ERA, a sparkling 0.87 WHIP with 97 Ks in 74.2 innings pitched.  His EAR would lead MLB, but he hasn’t pitched enough innings yet to be among the leaders but barring the Pirates curtailing his game appearances or an injury occurring he should accumulate enough innings before the season is finished.

Right now, taking it all into consideration, he is not only leading the field in the NL for the ROY award but he if he keeps pitching for the remainder of the season in the manner that he has started the year he could be in the running for the NL Cy Young award. 

Yep, as of right now, the NL ROY is his to lose.

2) As MLB comes out of the All-Star break who is your leading candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year award? Why?

The Yankees’ Luis Gil in the LA was having a season similar to what Skenes was doing in the NL… in his first 14 games his record was 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 79 innings pitched and he was by far and away the leader for the AL award. Then he hit a rough patch and in his next 4 games he pitched just 16.1 innings, gave up 17 earned runs and saw his record drop to 9-5 with a 3.27 ERA. Gil has since rebounded form that slump and in his next 2 starts he gave up just two earned runs across his 12.2 innings with 16 strikeouts and just one walk Going into the break his record was 10-5, with a 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 124 strikeouts in 107.1 innings pitched. 

Gil’s closest competitor for the AL ROY is probably the Rangers DH and left fielder Wyatt Langford who by virtue of a hot June when he slashed .309/.368/.526 jumped into consideration for the award. He has cooled off a bit July but going into the All-Star break he was slashing .247/.324/.375 with 5 HRs, 42 RBIs and 32 runs scored.

Right now it’s between Langford and Gil for the AL ROY award with Gil holding a slight edge as the front runner.

3) Who is your leading candidate for the Manger of the Year Award in each league? Why?

In 2023 the Guardians had a disappointing 76-86 record. It was also Terry Francona’s last season as the manager of the Guardians as he retired after the conclusion of the 2023.

Stephen Vogt was eventually named the new manager of the Guardians and all he has done  in replacing a sure-fire Hall of Fame manager is to lead the Guardians to the best record in the American League (and second-best record in all of baseball) after the team finished last season 10 games under .500.

The 2024 Guardians got off to a hot start … they won 8 of their first 10 games, 17 of their first 23, and have been alone in first place in the American League Central since April 14.

The Guardians, who at 61-41 are tied with the Orioles for the best record in the AL, entered 2024 with a win total projection of 79.5, are currently on pace for a 96-win season and if the team gets there and winds up winning its fifth AL Central title in the past nine years then Vogt will most likely win AL Manager of the Year.  

In the National League the Milwaukee Brewers had a preseason win total of just 77.5 games, with most people thinking the team would finish under that number. Most pre-season predictions were that the team would finish fourth in the division.

Currently, the Pat Murphy managed Brewers (59-43) lead the NL Central by 6 games and are on pace for 93 wins. Similar to Vogt if  Murphy has the Brewers winning NL Central title then he will most likely win NL Manager of the Year.  

4) At the All-Star break the Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central by 4½ games over the St. Louis Cardinals.

After running their led up 7½ games at one point the Brewers went into the break by losing 7 out of their last 10 games in the first half of the season.

Since May 11, the Cardinals have the best record in the National League at 35-22.

The two team have six head-to-head matchups remaining in the season.  

Will the Cardinals run down the Brewers and win the NL Central? Why or why not?

After being one of the better teams in the NL for the majority of the first half of the season the Brewers lost 7 of their last 10 before the All-Star break which kind of left the door open for the Cardinals to make a run at the top spot in the division. The Cardinals however went 5-5  and while it did cut 2 games off the Brewers divisional lead the Cardinals fumbled a golden opportunity to cut the lead by a lot more.

Th Brewers starting rotation could be a problem, but they tend to be a team that is good at piecing it together and getting by. And somehow they seem to always manage to put together a vaunted bullpen and their star closer Devin Williams is almost nearly back from an injury that has kept him out all season to this point. Offensively, they get on base, run a lot and score runs. So overall it seems like a good bet the Brewers will continue to be a quality offense. And continue to win games at a decent clip.

Since May 11, the Cardinals have the best record in the National League at 35-22 which over a full seson would be a 99-win campaign. If they keep playing like a 99-win team, they can run the Brewers down. That’s a tough row to hoe especially when two of the supposedly better offensive players not having great seasons…Paul Goldschmidt is slashing .226/.286/.372 and Nolan Arenado is slashing .266/.321/.386. But if those two players can kick it into another gear i the second half and as mentioned in the question… the two team have six head-to-head matchups against one another left to play… then the Cardinals have a chance to run down the Brewers for the division title.

5) Rumors have been rampant involving the potential availability of Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet who is arguably the best pitcher available this year by the trade deadline.

Do the White Sox in fact trade Crochet by the deadline? Why or why not?

And if the Sox do trade Crochet which team do you see as his landing place? Why? 

Crochet is one of the biggest names that could be available at this year’s trade deadline. The 25-year old in his first full season as a starter for the White Sox has had an excellent season so far with an American-League leading 157 strikeouts and a 3.07 ERA that is 11^th overall in the AL.

However some warning flags appear to be coming out that say if he gets traded Crochet wants a contract extension and has no interest in pitching out of the bullpen. Given these contingencies and the concerns about Crochet’s innings load in his first full MLB season workload down the stretch, there are rumblings that say Crochet might not get moved out of Chicago. In fact considering that Crochet has two years of club control remaining after this season and assuming Crochet stays healthy for the remainder of the year, Chicago might be better served to keep him for the 2024 season and explore trading him in the off-season where with more possibilities for trade partners they could get a much better return in any trade made.

Given the rumors I’ll say it’s a 50-50 chance Crochet gets traded.

But if he does get moved… I look for either Dodgers, who are always in the market for pitching it seems or the Yankees one of the two teams he will most likely wind up being traded to.

Extra Innings…

Baseball Hall of Fame inductees…  

(From left, Jim Leyland, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer hold their plaques at the National Baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony, Sunday, July 21, 2024, in Cooperstown, N.Y. )