MLBRT 7/18/2024

 

The questions and discussion…  

1) The Giants entered Thursday (7/11) with a 45-48 record that puts them 2½  games back in the hunt for a National League Wild-Card spot as the trade deadline nears in MLB. However, according to top executive Farhan Zaidi, “When I look at our team, we have pretty solid players at every spot in the field. We have a rotation that’s getting healthier and a bullpen that’s done a nice job. So nothing jumps out as a spot where we need an emergency plug in.” Making it sound like the Giants won’t be making any deals… major or otherwise… by the trade deadline.

If the Giants essentially stay inactive at the trade deadline can they still make the playoffs? Why or why not?

I think the Giants can make the playoffs if they stay healthy, but it’s basically a “it’s possible, they’re not mathematically eliminated” can. They need to make some moves.

Currently, they’re under .500 in a division that features a sure-fire bet to win it in the Dodgers. They also are contending with the Padres, who aren’t a slouch, and the Diamondbacks, who are currently in second place. They also have to contend with the Cardinals, Mets, Braves, Pirates, Reds and Cubs for the final three Wild Card slots (with one already taken by Atlanta, and likely another NL Central team).

Now the Giants are getting some starters back, but the question remains on depth. How much depth do they have to withstand an injury? Hicks is starting to tail off, which is expected since he hasn’t dealt with a workload to this extent while being a reliever previously. They also can’t withstand another top starter going down or missing time since they’re struggled while Snell, Cobb and Ray have been sidelined, in the bottom 10 of the league in starter’s pitching categories. They also need help in the bullpen, lacking a true lefty reliever as well as more depth. Their hitting has been fine, but it’s a lot of unproven players, which is risky to place bets on them not tailing off or going cold.

The Giants could stay still, especially with their $288 million payroll bill this year, but they need to be aware that staying put is going to likely cost them a playoff spot. 

The Giants are still in the battle for a spot in the playoffs however the team is in a bit of a ‘no man’s land’ situation. While it might be tempting for the Giants to go out and make some moves to garner some players who could fortify their lineup to make a second half push to make the playoffs it also might not be the best move(s) to make at this point in the team’s future development and its future as a yearly playoff team.

The Giants forfeited their second- and third-round picks in the 2024 draft to sign Blake Snell and Matt Chapman in free agency, and to do so again… lose draft picks in next year’s draft as well as the prospects needed to make any trades… especially with a roster that has significant flaws and a poor record… 29-37… against teams with winning records it might be more sensible for the Giants to stay the course this season; ride the season out and whatever happens happens… they make the playoffs all well and good and if they don’t then regroup in the off-season and fix the holes the team has through free agency or by making trades without mortgaging their future by overpaying with prospects for a quick fix.

Will they make the playoffs if they don’t make any significant acquisitions before the trade deadline? Maybe and probably not… but the better course of action for the Giants is to stay put and/or maybe sell off some pieces to get some prospects to bulk up the pipeline in the minors so they can feed the team with future plyers.  

2) Pirates rookie right-hander Paul Skenes made his 11th big-league start on Thursday afternoon (7/11) against the Brewers and after he held the Brewers hitless through seven innings while striking out eleven and walking just one on 99 pitches, manager Derek Shelton pulled him from the game due to pitch-count purposes.

Reliver Colin Holderman then surrendered a hit to the first batter he faced.

Predictably, manager Derek Shelton’s decision to remove Skenes after throwing 99 pitches has inspired its fair share of second-guessing. The Pirates still won the game 1-0 but the no-hitter was lost.

If you were the Pirates manager do you pull Skenes or let him go out and take shot at making MLB history? Why or why not?

I would have let Skenes try and finish out the no-hitter against Milwaukee.

While he was at 99 pitches in the seventh inning, he could finish the game off with only 10-20 more pitches, which isn’t an astronomical number for him. However, given his age and being a prospect for them still (despite being in the majors already), letting him get high pitch counts isn’t an ideal future-plan idea they want to deal with.

However, I would’ve let him try for the no-hitter. Have a reliever on stand-by the entire rest of the game, in case he does give up that one hit and then you can yank him and switch to that reliever, but I’m giving him the opportunity to make history. He was untouchable by the Brewers’ line-up all game, why not give him that opportunity? He’ll likely have more opportunities, but how many pitchers never even come close to a no-hitter? Let him get that chance, you never know when it might come back around. 

If I’m the manager I leave Skenes in albeit on a very short leash.

I would have at least two guys throwing in the bullpen getting ready to come in at a moment’s notice and at the first sign of Skenes beginning to labor with his control or if he gives up a hit I then, and only then, yank him for one of the relivers.

Pitch counts should be guide lines on when a manger should take a pitcher from a games and not a hard fast set number where a manger pulls the pitcher regardless of the game’s circumstances.

3) Coincidentally on Friday morning (7/12), NL All-Star manager Torey Lovullo announced that Paul Skenes, who has just 11 starts in his young MLB career and is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA while striking out 89 against only 13 walks in 66.1 innings, was announced as the National League’s starter for this year’s MLB All-Star game.

What is your opinion regarding Lovullo’s announcement making Skenes only the firth rookie pitcher rookie pitcher to start the All-Star Game after Hideo Nomo (1995), Fernando Valenzuela (1981), Mark Fidrych (1976) and Dave Stenhouse (1962)? Why?

I love that Skenes was chosen as the starter for the National League in the All-Star Game.

While it’s not the pitcher I would’ve chosen (as I stated last week, Chris Sale was my choice), I do think this is a very popular, fan-pleasing pick. It gives fans a reason to tune in to the beginning of the All-Star Game. They get to see a rookie sensation take the mound and throw out the first inning in the All-Star Game. Plus, it speaks volume on his efforts and skills on getting him to the majors not even a year after being drafted yet be still absolutely dominating at the top level of baseball.

This is great for Paul, this is great for the fans, and this is great for baseball. I support the decision. 

While he isn’t the guy I would have picked as the NL starter… my pick would have been Chris Sales…  with his numbers and the way he is pitching against all comers he is very deserving of having the honor of being the starter for the National League All-Star team.

4) The New York Mets’ with new front office boss in David Stearns calling the shots and with a load of tradeable players that includes slugging first baseman Pete Alonso, DH J.D. Martinez and outfielders Harrison Bader and Starling Marte plus starting pitchers Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and reliever Adam entered the season looking like they could be major sellers as the MLB trade deadline came closer. And for large part of the season their sub-500 record appeared to confirm that possibility into becoming  reality. Then starting early in June the Mets got hot and  suddenly were thrust right in the midst of the NL teams fighting for one of three Wild Cards. Then they lost five of seven… then just as quickly they won four of five.

As of Friday morning (7/12) the Mets are 47-45 and presently the third Wild Card in the NL by .001 percentage point over the San Diego Padres (49-47).

Will Sterns and the Mets be buyers, sellers or stay pat at the deadline? Why?

The Mets need to play the balancing act here between buying and selling.

They have a lot of great future prospects coming up the ranks rather quickly, but that doesn’t mean that they should mortgage the future and go all-in at the trade deadline. However, they do need to add to the bullpen. The good thing about Stearns is that he’s been known to add to the bullpen as the season gets deeper in the season, knowing that he needs to give arms a rest and switch up who some teams can see.

They also need to get a corner-outfield bat.

I feel like some of their players are expendable, but they need to keep their core intact. I believe the Mets are going to keep steady, improve with a bullpen arm or two and a bat to come off the bench. They’re rumored to be going to a six-man rotation once Kodai Senga returns from the injured list. They can’t catch Philadelphia, so their best bet is to try and overtake Atlanta or stay firm and get the second Wild Card slot for the National League. 

The Mets situation is very similar to the situation the Giants are in… they need to walk a fine line between acquiring key pieces to make big playoff push while not overpaying with valuable prospects that could become the core for the team’s future.  

However I think while the Mets have some holes it is also a that is a lot better than what it showed in the early part of the season and a lot more like the team that got hot in June and early July and got themselves into the n mix for Wild Card spot. If they can get a player or two without sacrificing key prospects then they should pull the trigger on the deal. But if the prospect price is too high then pass. This team, unlike the Giants, as is has the players in place to either possibly overtake the Braves for the first Wild Card or simply just earn one of the other two spots available.

5) Last week, the Milwaukee Brewers jumped the line on the pitching trade market and acquired righty Aaron Civale from the Tampa Bay Rays for minor-league infielder Gregory Barrios. 

Since being traded from the Guardians to the Rays, Civale’s record has been in a word underwhelming… 27 starts with a 5.17 ERA.

Civale’s first start with Milwaukee was a mixed bag… he struck out eight in five innings against the but also surrendered four runs, including three homers. Home runs are part of the Civale experience and with Rays this seson he has allowed 16 HRs in just in 87 innings (1.66 HR/9) and his career home run rate is 1.32 per nine innings. The book on Civale with his stuff he will strike out batters… about 25% of the players he has faced this season.. but you have to live with the homers he tends to give up.   

Can the Brewers coaching stuff turn things around for Civale and revive, if not save, his career? Why or why not?

The Brewers are a great spot for athletes to try and revive their career, but with regards to Civale, I think he is just going to struggle with giving up home runs and relying on striking out opponents. That’s just his game.

American Family Field is not a pitcher-friendly atmosphere either, so it’s not the best spot for potential revival opportunities. But I believe Aaron Civale can regain enough of his former self in which the Brewers will get quality innings and use out of him. They just need to be okay with him allowing a home run or two, but if he can limit his hits allowed, walks allowed and strike out a good number of batters, Civale will be fine for his future career, whether it remains in Milwaukee or in another city. 

The Brewers’ latest pitching acquisition doesn’t need magic pixie dust from the Brewers pitching coaches rather they need to help him strategize around his ability to manipulate the baseball in every possible with the wide variety of pitches he has in his arsenal.  

In his five seasons with the Guardians he posted a 3.77 ERA when he suddenly reached new heights last year pitching to a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts before a midseason trade to the Rays.

Then things went south in a hurry. Civale limped to a 5.36 ERA in 10 starts after the trade. However his strikeout rate jumped by nine percentage points, and he had a 3.63 FIP during that stretch. That mixed bag of results continued into the 2024 season where in his 17 starts, the opposition tagged Civale for a 5.07 ERA with a 4.69 FIP.

The 29-year-old’s underwhelming performance was in my opinion a mismatch between the player and the organization. The Rays are known for optimizing pitchers, but their attempts to optimize Civale handicapped how well his diverse arsenal can keep big-league hitters off-balance. This trade to the Brewers puts him with a team that is better suited at maximizing this pitcher with his wide array of effective pitches instead of being locked in and limited to using just two primary pitches depending upon whether he is facing a lefthanded or righthanded batter.

Civale can do a little bit of everything with the baseball. He can make his fastballs ride through the zone, run to the arm side, or cut to the glove side. He can make his breaking stuff sweep across the zone or drop below it. There is virtually no overlap in the behavior of each pitch in his arsenal. With the  Rays he became a specialized two pitch pitcher based on the whether he was facing a lefty or a righty at the plate. In 2024 the Rays had Civale attacking right-handers primarily with his two-seamer and cutter while sometimes mixing in a newly developed sweeper, while left-handers were shown mostly cutters and curveballs. However if the Brewers instead allow Civale to utilize what is basically a 6-pitch arsenal against opponents Civale should be able to keep hitters from locking in on a single pitch type and have multiple avenues to retire opposing hitters from both sides of the plate.

The solution isn’t adding, subtracting, or transforming a pitch or retooling Civale’s mechanics rather it it’s a simpler fix. What Civale most probably needs is a more spread-out game plan wherein he has the ability to mix up his speeds and locations to the batters he faces depending upon which side of the plate they are batting. Bottom line is that the Brewers need to live with Civale’s tendency to give up HRs and to let him use his 6-pitch arsenal to limit the runners he puts on base that could score when he does give up the inevitable HR.

Who knows if he ever becomes more than just a journey pitcher but with Rays he was being limited to not using every pitch he has at his disposal to be as an effective pitcher as he can be. With the Brewers he will most likely be able to tap into his ability to throw various types of pitches and probably return to being at least a middle of the rotation type of pitcher who can give the his team outs and innings.

Extra Innings…