MLBRT 6/20/2024

  

The questions and discussion…  

1) On Friday (6/14) the Houston Astros released struggling veteran first baseman José Abreu. The move came despite the fact that Abreu is owed the balance of a $19.5 million salary for this season and also owed $19.5 million for the 2025 season. 

Considering this news…

In the past ten years is Abreu’s deal with the Astros the worst free agent signing in recent to be negotiated? Why or why not?

Or is there another signing that was worse and if so who is it? Why?

I think this was one of the worst signings in MLB history as the Houston Astros signed Jose Abreu for almost $20 million a year, yet he’s been a complete disappointment since joining Houston.

He’s posted a slash line of .217/.275/.351 with a 73 OPS+ including a dismal 4 OPS+ this season. He just could never figure it out in Houston, and they did the right move in cutting their losses and moving on from him when they did.

The Astros have been struggling this season, and making changes sooner rather than later are always a good idea. But Jose Abreu hasn’t done anything positive, hitting only 18 home runs last season in 141 games (he hit 19 in the 60-game COVID season). This season he had 28 strikeouts to only four walks, with a .124/.167/.195 slash line on the season. Only 14 hits in 120 plate appearances. He’s been a complete waste of an at-bat. For $19.5million a season, this was a complete bust. 

Chris Davis signed by the Orioles for  7 years, $161 million in 2016. Pre-Deal WAR: 14.3; Post-Deal WAR: Minus-2.7.

Davis was a two-time MLB home run champion who had hit more HRs than any other player between 2012 and 2015. So the Orioles took a chance on him in an effort to add some home run power in the middle of their lineup.

While Davis’ history says he should provide that desired HR power the problem was that if somehow he stopped hit all those HRs then his value would significantly decrease as he had no baserunning or defensive value to speak of and he was a plyer who tended to strike out a lot, one time leading the majors with over 200 Ks.

The first year of the deal he provide the asked for power with 38 HRs, but he also only hit for just a .221 average and for the second time in his career had over 200 strikeouts with his 219 leading MLB.

It just went downhill from there…  

For the next four years he never surpassed hitting over .215 and for the last three years in that stretch he never surpassed .200 with an overall OPS during that time of just .615. His HR power declined steadily every year, too, falling from 38 in 2106, to 26 in 2107, then 16 in 2018, 12 in 2019 and then in 2020 he appeared in only 16 games, hit no HRs and had just 6 hits in 55 plate appearances.

He retired from MLB in 2020. But then held the distinction of being the highest paid retired player at $14.8 million a year and due to get around roughly $56 million through 2037.

2) On Sunday (6/16) the New York Mets were had a disappointing 27-36 record, nine games below .500, fourth in the NL East and 14½ games out of first place. But at the same time the Mets are only four games out of a playoff spot.

With that in mind owner Steve Cohen told reporters, “I know everybody’s focused on the trade deadline. That’s all anybody wants to talk about. We’ve got a lot of games to play. Let’s get focused on what’s happening now. We’ve got to chip away. What are we, four games out of the wild card? We shouldn’t be proud of that, right? We’re still nine games under. But it gives you the opportunity to make the season a success. And so that’s the way I’m looking at it.”

As the trade deadline approaches should the Mets be a seller or a buyer? Why?

The Mets are 35-38 on the season, as of today, and if they realistically feel like they have a chance, then they need to be buyers.

In this year’s National League, there’s four teams over .500 and the rest are all under .500. For the Mets to be in that middle of the pack range, and easily in Wild Card reach, they should be looking to improve their roster in any capacity that they can. While the NL East is a very tough division for them with the Phillies and Braves, despite their injuries to Acuna Jr and Spencer Strider, leading the way, the Mets should be going for a Wild Card spot, which is very attainable.

They need to buy, add hitting, add pitching, improve to get them over the hump and into the postseason. That’s the main goal, because as we know, and saw last season with Texas and Arizona making the World Series, anybody can make it as long as they get hot at the right time. Mets should be buyers come trade deadline. 

The Mets season has been one of extreme streaks… starting with losing five straight to begin the season and with five other times having losing streaks of either 3 or 4 games. All wrapped around one period where they had eight wins in 9 games until just recently when they won nine games out of ten and brought their record from on nine game under .500 on June 9 to just three games under .500 to today, June 20.

A large part of the Mets; problem was that their hitters for the most part just were not hitting until very recently which is a large reason why they just won nine out ten. 

Now… if the Mets believe their hitters have finally turned the corner as a team then they need to be buyers leading up to this year’s trade deadline. Try to get an player who hits for average to insert in their batting order before the teams big boppers and then add a starter that hopefully won’t break the bank in giving up prospects.

With the Braves and Phillies in their division winning the NL East might be a pipe dream, but a Wild Card could easily be attainable with the Mets sitting with a .479 Win/Loss percentage in a season where presently only four NL teams are above .500… Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers  the three division leaders and the second place Braves… with the rest of the NL all under .500 and all fighting for the last two Wild Card spots.

3) At this point it the season which pitcher is your leading candidate to win the AL Cy Young Award? Why?

Tanner Houck of the Boston Red Sox is my leader for AL Cy Young Award so far this season. He has a 3.1 WAR, according to baseball-reference. 2.14 ERA, 2.21 FIP and a 0.972 WHIP with a 197 ERA+ and has been limiting balls out of the ballpark, which equates to a 0.2 HR/9 on the season. He has 94 strikeouts to only 17 walks.

The other competitor is Tarik Skubal, who has more strikeouts and a .1 higher WAR, but the rest are led by Houck.

He’s even had a complete game shutout this season, which is leading the MLB. He is reliable as there is for a starter for the Red Sox and is part of the reason the Red Sox are 40-35 on the season and third in the dangerous AL East division. 

Tanner Houck has been leading the turnaround in the Red Sox pitching this season from last season’s underwhelming performance and he is a big reason why the Sox  are presently over .500 for the year and in the hunt for Wild Card if not still being a long shot to win the AL East.

Houck has made huge strides with his strike-throwing abilities this season and has been going deep into games all year. Presently he has an 2.14 ERA (2^nd in AL), 0.972 WHIP (7^th AL), 94 Ks (8^th AL) against 17 walks in 96.2 innings pitched as well having a MLB leading 2.21 FIP and allowing the fewest HRs (0.2) per nine innings.

I think Houck right now is the AL leader for the Cy Young award.

4) At this point it the season which pitcher is your leading candidate to win the NL Cy Young Award? Why?   

With the NL East dominating this category with three pitchers in the top five rankings, two are from Philadelphia and one was an ex-ace of the White Sox and just came over to the NL East with the Braves this season.

The leader for the past weeks took a slight fall in the rankings due to allowing seven runs against the Brewers, which inflated his ERA and numbers. Shota Imanaga is still dominating, not striking out a ton of batters, but limiting home runs and not walking batters. The Cubs are still dominating in his starts, only losing twice. But he’s not the leader…

Chris Sale is having a fantastic season, leading the National League in FIP with 2.34, 99 walks to only 13 strikeouts for a 7.6 SO/BB ratio, and an under-three ERA.

Of the Phillies, they have two great pitchers in Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez.

Suarez is my leader. He has an insane 229 ERA+, 2.68 FIP, 0.888 WHIP (which leads all of baseball) and has 95 strikeouts to only 19 walks and a 1.75 ERA with a 3.5 baseball-reference WAR. He’s the absolute ace to the Phillies staff, and a team that has been leading the NL East and entire National League this season. 

As of today (6/20) I have this a two-man race between the Phillies’ Ranger Suarez and the Braves Reynaldo Lopez.

Suarez, in 15 starts, has ten wins, a 1.75 ERA (2^nd in MLB), 0.888 Whip (1^st MLB), a complete game shutout, 95 Strikeouts (8^th NL), against 17 walks in 96.2 innings pitched, a 2.68 FIP (4^th NL)and has allowed the fewest HRs per nine innings (0.186).   

Lopez, who has started two fewer games (13), has five wins, a MLB leading 1.57 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 76 strikeout against 23 walks in 74.1 innings pitched, a 2.73 FIP (5^th NL) and has only yielded just 0.484 HRs per nine innings.

Right now I’m leaning to Suarez being the leader for the NL Cy Young.

5) And, at his point in the season which team is the number one team in MLB in your power rankings? Why?

Right now, the number one team in baseball is the team with the best record, best run differential and is leading the American League East in the New York Yankees.

They’re currently 51-25, has a +125 run differential and has the most runs scored in baseball (well, tied with the Dodgers at 384) while allowing the fewest runs scored on them in the entire MLB (259). They’ve been dominating with three players who are on pace to hit 40 home runs, and this is all without the reigning Cy Young Award winner in Gerritt Cole being shelved for the first 75 games of the season.

He just made his first appearance of the year last night, in which he pitched four innings, struck out five, walked one and allowed two earned runs. Getting their ace back, on top of Lucas Gil holding the rotation down, is just going to add to the firepower the Yankees have had this season. They’re number one right now, and as long as they continue dominating and winning, they should hold this position for the long-term. 

I was going to say it is the New York Yankees but they got their butts handed to them by the Orioles by a 17-5 score today.

But guess what … looking at the numbers the Yanks still have a small edge against their two nearest competitors in the Orioles and the Phillies.

Yanks have 111 HRs (2nd  MLB), 384 runs cored (1st MLB), 367 RBIs (2nd MLB/1st AL), .333 OBP (2nd MLB/1st AL) , .443 Slugging (3rd MLB/2nd AL) and a .766 ops (2nd MLB/1st AL).

And they back that hitting up with a 3.05 ERA (1st MLB), 1.17 WHIP (5th MLB/3rd AL), a .216 opponents batting average (1st MLB).

However if I’m being honest if someone wanted to call it for the Orioles or the Phillies I really wouldn’t argue.

Extra Innings…