MLBRT 5/30/2024

The questions and discussion…   

1) Chicago Cubs rookie starter Shota Imanaga in his young MLB career has held MLB hitters to a minuscule .164 batting average which has been a key part of why he has a MLB leading 0.84 ERA.

Arguably helping him in achieving his phenomenal start to his MLB career is that in his nine MLB starting appearances (as of 5/23) he has face nine different teams.

In your opinion when he has to face teams for a second time will MLB hitters have a better results against his pitching arsenal? Why or why not?

I think Shota Imanaga is going to still see success against teams when he faces them for a second time. When he appeared on the Pat McAfee Show on Thursday, 5/23, he had stated that while he doesn’t exactly know all of the hitters, it’s the same process for him as what it was in Japan. And he had a ton of success there, so I don’t see it changing.

He also stated something surprising, that he hasn’t even shown the league every pitch that he has available in his arsenal. So seeing some teams a second time, I think they might end up seeing these pitches he’s holding in his back pocket and will continue to see huge success. Seeing how he’s just absolutely dominating every team he’s faced, nine different, I don’t think that he’s going to really see such a terrible stretch that his numbers will put him out of the Cy Young or Rookie of the Year race. 

Imanaga over his first nine MLB starts amassed an 0.84 ERA (489 ERA+) and a 6.44 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53-2/3 innings. He had held teams scoreless in five of those appearances.

Then on Wednesday (5/29) he ran into the Milwaukee Brewers and the Brewers became the first team to more than two earned runs in a game against him as well as handing him the worst start of his Major League Baseball career. In the game Imanaga surrendered seven runs, all earned, on eight hits and a walk over the course of 4 1/3 innings and a couple of HRs and three doubles. His ERA went from 0.84 to 1.86.

It should be interesting to see how he rebounds from that game as it will tell us a lot about how he might do going forward with the remainder of the season.  

I’m going to guess he comes back against the next team fairly well and comes close to his former dominant performance.

All of this is to say that I think Imanaga is for real, and he will be able to adapt to the adversity every pitcher eventually will face against MLB teams. And I think maybe he won’t have a sub-1.00 ERA for the season but tha the will flirt with a sub-2.00 ERA and still be a serious contender for NL Rookie of the Year as well as the NL Cy Young.  

2) In 1918 a young Babe Ruth said, “I don’t think a man can pitch in his regular turn, and play every other game at some other position, and keep that pace year after year. I can do it this season all right, and not feel it, for I am young and strong and don’t mind the work. But I wouldn’t guarantee to do it for many seasons.”

The player most compared to Ruth in today’s game is obviously Shohei Ohtani who has so far excelled a player in MLB (2 MVPs in 6 years prior to the 2024 season) both as a pitcher (38-19 W/L; 3.01 ERA & 1.082 WHIP) and a hitter (.280/.370.562 slash line).  

So far, the question about whether Ohtani should specialize his unrivaled skill set to one side of the game over the other have been moot simply due to the fact Ohtani wants to be a starting pitcher in MLB as well as a batter.

However due to rehabbing from the second major surgery to his throwing elbow in his career TJ surgery he is only DHing in first year as a Dodger. And so far like Ruth once upon a time did he is taking the game by storm… he leads the National League in homers, hits, average, slugging (.348/.418/.641 slash line) and OPS (1.059) and is second in doubles and on-base percentage. Plus he is on pace to challenge for a Triple Crown and post a 40-40 season (he’s 13-for-13 in steals) — in the same year. (All statistics are of 5/23.)

So…

Is Shohei Ohtani becoming too good of a MLB hitter… similarly to Babe Ruth in his early career… to continue in MLB as a pitcher? Why or why not?

While I think that Shohei Ohtani could stick with hitting and be a shoe-in for Hall of Fame as one of the best hitters in the game, and overall offensive players, if Ohtani can still pitch at the elite level that he’s demonstrated throughout his time in the Majors, then why restrict him from doing so? He’s one of the best pitchers and hitters in baseball, and just because he did go through an injury which required Tommy John surgery, I wouldn’t restrict him from pitching. Especially when there’s an interest from Ohtani in doing both, when there’s still top skill in that, and his pay was based on participating both on the mound and at the plate.

I would restrict him from fielding though and keep him strictly at DH while pitching every five days to keep his arm fresh and not have him throwing around the diamond on defense, but I’m not taking him away from pitching. Not yet at least, until he shows that he can’t do both. 

When Ohtani signed his big bucks deal with the Dodgers the main reason  he got those big bucks was because the Dodgers were signing on for a player  who can be a yearly candidate for the MVP and the Cy Young awards.  

Add in the fact that Ohtani himself has expressed a desire to play in MLB as both a hitter and a pitcher.  

Then consider when the Babe was playing in majors there was no DH… he had to play in the field when he wasn’t pitching or couldn’t get his at bats to hit his HRs. And I believe he was right in his assumption that would take a toll  on his body after while most likely affecting his pitching abilities. Ohtani doesn’t have to play in the field to get hi ABs due to the DH and that helps keeps him strong so he can take his regular turn on the mound and pitch effectively.

Until he proves he can’t do both effectively and at a high level there is no reason to limit him to just being a hitter in MLB.

3) Staying with Ohtani…

Ohtani is a two-time MVP winner as a two-way player, but no primary DH has ever won MLB MVP honors. The closest any player ever came to winning an MVP while DHing was when Don Baylor won an MVP in 1981. Baylor was mostly a left fielder in his MVP season, but he also appeared in 65 games at DH for the Angels that year, or just a bit more than 40% of his total games played.

What would it take for the Dodger’s star to make more history? Can Shohei Ohtani become the first full-time DH to win a MLB MVP? Why or why not?

Ohtani is on a great pace to win the MVP, and if it’s a neck-and-neck race between him and Betts, I would give it to Ohtani to make him create more history. While that may seem shallow and I’m just awarding a player a historic stat just because, still I think he’s well deserving of it.

But, with the way the season is playing, I think Contreras in Milwaukee is heavily involved in the race and will be in the top three when it comes down to the final month of the season. If Ohtani can throw up a 40-40 season and hit over .300 and dominate and shows that he’s right there in the voting, I would give him a nod above the rest. So I certainly think this is a real possibility of happening this season, and don’t be surprised if he gets a couple bumps to make it happen.  

If he puts up a 40-40 season and hits significantly over .300 challenging to win the NL batting title…

Then, yeah…

I think he could become the first  full time DH to win a MLB MVP.  

4) At one point Giancarlo Stanton was on what many people considered to be a Hall of Fame track… he had just finished with his age-28 season in 2018, and he had won an MVP and finished as the runner-up once and had accumulated 305 homers, 772 RBI, 1,124 hits and 678 runs. And, he had led the league in slugging three times, home runs twice, RBI once, WAR once and total bases once. 

Then injuries have since then more or less railroaded his career.

However on Thursday (5/23) he slugged his 414^th career HR and now has 1,058 RBI and 1,495 hits for his time in MLB. He’s signed through 2027. And despite all those aforementioned injuries that often kept him off the field, Stanton still hit 35 homers in 2021, 31 in 2022 and 24 in 2023.

If Stanton can surpass 500 HRs, and possibly surpass Frank Thomas, Ted Williams and McCovey who are all tied for 20th place on the career HR list with 521, can he still be a Hall of Famer? Why or why not?   

If Giancarlo Stanton hits 500 home runs, he’s going to Cooperstown. That’s a magic number for an automatic bid, outside of steroid-era players, to make the Hall of Fame.

And his total basis of a resume, from what he did when he was younger with the Marlins, and what he can do when he’s healthy, I think he’s deserving of a Hall of Fame nod. 500 home runs is that mark to put players in the Hall of Fame, and let’s throw him in off 500. Outside of last season, every year has been excellent and well above-league average in OPS+, still posting a 137 OPS+ throughout his career. Multiple Silver Slugger awards, an MVP award and when he hits 500 home runs, he’s going to Cooperstown.  

He’s signed through 2027. Due to his injuries he only appeared in 139 games in 2021, 110 in 2022, and 101 last year or 2023. And Stanton still hit 35 homers in 2021, 31 in 2022 and 24 in 2023. 

The point being even when he is limited in his game appearances or having a bad year statistically he still is able to clout a fair number of home runs.

He’s signed through 2027. That’s four more years including this year. Let’s assume he can stay relatively healthy… such as he has done so far this season… and average appearances in maybe 140-pluss games a season and hit an average of at least 35 HRs for those next four years then that gives him an additional 140 HRs… minus the 11 HRs he had for this season up to May 23 when he hit number 414 that adds 129 to that 414 total giving him at least 543 career HRs and number 17 on the all-time list ahead of Hall of Famers David Ortiz, Mickey Mantle, Jimmy Foxx, Willie McCovey, Frank Thomas, Ernie Banks and Eddie Mathews.

 That’s pretty special company to be associated with.

I say if he can over 500 HRs, and especially if he gets near my projections for him. then yeah, he’s a lock for the Hall. Maybe not a first ballot lock but still a lock.  

5) Since 2016 the Houston Astros have won the AL West every full season… 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023… that MLB has held games.

As of Friday AM (5/24) the Astros record is 22-28 and they are closer to last place than they are to first place… although they are only 4½ games behind the present division leader Mariners who coincidentally are the only team over .500 in the AL West.

Which team will ultimately win the AL West? Why?   

The American League West is a bad division. Not one team has a positive run differential this season.

There are two teams we can cancel out immediately from winning the division. Oakland and Los Angeles Angels. They’re going to compete to see who gets the basement spot.

The three remaining teams, like last year, are going to take this down to the wire. Seattle has had some surprising struggles this year but has had some good pitching appearances as well. Julio Rodriguez has just recently been dropped to the middle of the order, so he needs to get out of his slump to get their offense going and kickstart it overall.

The Astros have struggled all-around outside of Kyle Tucker leading the MLB in home runs and having a no-hitter by Rone Blanco in the first month.

The Rangers have had some injury issues that they’ve been able to hurdle and stay in second place and around .500. Unfortunately, Cody Bradford was just transferred to the 60-day injured list, so he’ll be out an extended period of time on a growing list of pitchers who have missed time or been on the injured list this season.

I think it’s going to come down to the same three teams last season, with the Texas Rangers coming out on top. They still have a great team; didn’t make a whole lot of changes from last season. And with the struggles of an aging team in Houston, along with not having Dusty Baker as manager, I think gives the Astros a disadvantage opening the door for the Rangers. Plus, the Mariners seem to get hot at the end of the season, but they also crumble as well when it comes that time and always get hot too late.

So I’m going with the Texas Rangers for the AL West division winners this season.   

Last year, the AL West went down to the final day… the Rangers and Astros both ended 90-72 while the Mariners were only two games back at 88-74. 

I think this seson that same scenario occurs… a tight race right down to the wire between those three teams.  

The Angels and the Athletics will be fighting it out for the “honor” of which team is last in the division.

And I’m going with the Mariners.

I have always said in this column that pitching wins more game than does hitting . And the Mariners have one of the better starting rotations in MLB and by default in the division. And the Mariners also  have a very capable bullpen to finish games for those very good starters

The Mariners just need  their hitters to get timely hit and score just enough runs to pull out more wins than losses.  And while they aren’t the most prolific hitting team in the AL… they sit in the bottom third of the AL in runs, doubles, average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS.. they do hit home runs and they hit them in key moments.

I think their hitters will start to turn things around a bit and get those other numbers up and they will keep managing to keep scoring  just enough runs to win just enough games to pull out the top spot  in the AL West when the regular season ends.

Extra Innings…