MLBRT 4/18/2024

The questions and discussion…  

1) According to ESPN.com’s Eric Karabell, “No MLB team has had more than five players with 100 RBI in one season. The 1936 Yankees were the last with five, thanks to a lineup featuring Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio. Last season’s Dodgers became the fourth team this century with four such players and this year, I predict they’ll pass those Yankees with six.

In your opinion will Karabell’s prediction for the Dodgers having 6 players with 100 RBI in a season become a reality or not? Why?

I think the Dodgers have a great shot at reaching six players with 100 RBI.

More than likely, they’re going to match the 1939 Yankees with five. But I think Teoscar Hernandez is going to be the sixth player as he’s already at 18 RBI. This is a dangerous lineup with multiple hitters that will consistently get on base and force opposing pitchers to pitch to everybody.

Mookie Betts is a machine with getting on-base. Freddie Freeman is as consistent a player as you could dream of. Will Smith consistently gets on base and provides power. Everybody knows what Shohei Ohtani contributes to a line-up. Max Muncy is a power-hitter who will drive in runs with his home run totals and extra-base hits. Right there are your six players.

And, to make matters easier, the Dodgers’ lineup currently features these RBI numbers from their top hitters. Betts and Hernandez, 18; Smith 15; Muncy 13; Ohtani 10; Freeman 8. And Freeman hasn’t entered his hitting stride yet. Muncy has 13 RBI with 18 hits. Betts, Smith and Ohtani are well above 300 batting averages. This lineup is going to hit their stride and consistently push out runs. I expect five players to hit the 100 RBI mark. I think six is a very realistic number as well when you add Teoscar Hernandez. 

The Dodgers have a very strong offense from the one to six spots in their batting order … in fact the strongest in MLB, as collectively those six players are slashing .326/.412/.567 with an OPS of .979 so far this season.

After that they have the weakest in all of MLB with the last three players in the batting order slashing .162/,222/,229 with an OPS of .450. (The preceding statistics are of Tuesday (4/16) morning.)

I think Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman as the two and three hitters are sure fire locks to drive in at least 100 RBIs this season.

Will Smith in the four spot will obviously have a lot of chances to drive in runs but as a catcher for the Dodgers he has never appeared in more than 137 games, and he has never hit more than 26 doubles or 25 HRs in a season along with a batting average consistently between .250 to .260. So unless he keeps his BA up over .300 he might be hard pressed to drive in 100 RBIs.

Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez in the five and six spots are very good shots at hitting the 100 RBI mark.

Muncy I think is probably a lock. Last year without Ohtani in the lineup he had 105 RBI in only 135 games. He has already appeared in 20 of the Dodgers 21 games (as of 4/17) and if he keeps up that pace of game appearances, with the hitters in front of him, he should easily get to 100 RBIs.

Hernandez with his ability to hit around 30+ doubles and HRs and also with the batters in the order in front of him has a better than decent shot at the 100 RBI mark.

However…  

Those last three guys in the Dodgers order are going to hurt Betts’ RBI numbers. Plus, as a batter he has never topped 40 HRs and only surpassed 100 RBIs three times in his career so with the Dodgers bottom of the batting order being what it is, and frankly in my opinion might not improve too much going forward in the season Betts might not be able to hit the 100 RBI threshold.  

So I think the bottom line is the Dodgers are a cinch to have four of their lineup to surpass 100 RBIs with the other two likely candidates with a chance to hit the 100 mark maybe being problematic.

I say the Dodgers get five players, but not six, at or over 100 RBIS for the season.

2) Which player leads the NL, and most probably MLB, in stolen bases this season… Elly De La Cruz or Ronald Acuña Jr.? Why?

Ronald Acuña Jr. is going to lead the league in stolen bases if it comes down to him and Elly De La Cruz. But I think a dark-horse candidate in Brice Turang is going to be among the top in stolen bases as he’s already leading the league with nine right now.

When it comes down to the two the question posed, though, it’s going to come down to the type of players these two have shown in their careers, and last year especially, to the league. Elly De La Cruz demonstrates high strikeout numbers and really struggled in the second half last season. While it was his first season, I do expect him to struggle significantly for, at least, a month this season. While they have comparable strikeouts, Acuña Jr. is better at getting on base and striking out less, especially with only posting 86 last year. Cruz had 144 last year in only 98 games. Cruz is projected, by ESPN, to have 225 strikeouts this year. That’s going to put a heavy damper on his stolen base totals and give the advantage to Acuña. 

Cruz is a decent to a better than decent runner on the base paths. His stolen base success rate for 2023 was right around 81%. Problem is he tend to strike out a lot… 144 times in 427 plate appearances… and doesn’t hit for a high average or take a lot of walks.

Acuña Jr. SB success rate at about 83% is better than Cruz’ rate. And in 735 plate  appearances last seson he hit way over .300, with 200-plus hits and 80 walks. The point being that Acuña tends to be on base a lot more than Cruz and therefore is the most likely, if either of these two players are to lead MLB in SBs, to be the leader in that department.   

3) So far this season the Guardians’ Shane Bieber, the Braves’ Spencer Strider, the Marlins’ Eury Pérez,  the Athletics’ Trevor Gott and the Yankees Jonathan Loáisiga and Gerritt Cole have been among the pitchers diagnosed with elbow injuries.

And the list becomes more significant considering that the pitchers presently  recovering from elbow reconstruction or significant elbow problems includes an MVP in Shohei Ohtani, Cy Young winners in Jacob deGrom, Sandy Alcantara, Robbie May, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, All-Stars in Shane McClanahan,  Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito and Felix Bautista and young  standout prospects in Dustin May, Andrew Pointer, Shane Baz and Kumar Rocker.

Regarding the injuries MLBPA leadership on one hand is pointing a finger at the pitch clock and MLB’s reducing the amount of time a pitcher has between pitches with men on base from 20 seconds to 18 seconds for the 2024 season. While for the Commissioner’s office/MLB is saying that the MLBPA) “… ignores the empirical evidence and much more significant long-term trend, over multiple decades, of velocity and spin increases that are highly correlated with arm injuries.”

In your opinion which “side” is closer to the reason why pitcher’s injuries, in particular those requiring TJ surgeries, are seemingly on the rise in  MLB? Why?

I think both have some merit to what they’re saying, but overall, it was due to rear its ugly head with arm injuries due to how pitchers are now torqueing the ball and doing so at a young age forward. With the emphasis on velocity for pitchers while also getting as many revs as possible on a pitch (those have been increasing each year), it’s going to put a lot of wear and tear on elbows and arms. It’s more strain on your muscles, the UCL, etc., and an arm can only handle so much of it. Eventually, it’ll give out and return soreness, discomfort, and problems that will lead to Tommy John or other corrective surgeries.

Also, from listening to various former pitchers and players talk about the game today compared to when they played, pitchers are now throwing their all into each pitch. Closers are pitching the same way as starters, who are pitching the same way as relievers. They’re not trying to pitch full games anymore. They don’t even really want to go a full seven innings anymore. They’re throwing five or six innings and calling it a day. Throwing 95+ with movement is insane, and who can pitch the fastest is what’s celebrated among young guys. Throwing sliders at 90+, sinkers at 90+, it’s going to put way too much work on your arms. Then add all of that to a quicker pitch speed and requiring you to power through at-bats, it’s going to force an already stressed arm even more stress.

Imagine power-lifting for an hour. Now power-lift for no breaks for 10-15 minutes consistently. Then take a 5-10 minute break and get right back into it. It’s going to put a huge toll on your body. Same for pitching. Both MLB and MLBPA have some legitimacy to their words, and they need to work together to get a resolution to restrict as much damage to pitcher’s arms as possible. 

Does the union leadership have a point that the pitch clock is a big problem for some pitchers and is leading to an uptick in elbow injuries? Possibly.

But in my opinion the bigger problem is that pitchers from the time there are young kids and up are being told that to make in the upper levels, and possibly the pros,  that they need to get their velocity up over 90 and closer to the mid-90s with higher and higher spin rates. This leads to elbow injuries to more and more young players than ever before and is the major reason why players at all levels are having more and more instances of elbow injuries as well as TJ surgeries.

According to Statcast the average four-seam fastball and sinkers in MLB has risen from 92.8 mph in 2015 to 93.9 mph in 2023 and so far this year is sitting at about 93.7. MLB teams have crated these labs where the analytics peeps sit around measuring velocity, spin rates, various release points and so on to death.  Then use this  data to limit pitch counts, how many time a pitcher should face a lineup and what not which in my opinion is in direct contradiction to teaching players how to actually pitch rather than just throw as hard as possible for as long as possible.

Back in the day pitcher like Hall of Famers Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer and Ferguson Jenkins all had multiple seasons where they threw 300 innings or more yet never had a blown out UCL or significant elbow problems. Why? Because they ran before games from foul pole to foul pole to build up their leg strength. The purpose being that it aided in putting less stress on their arms during their deliveries to the plate.

Tom Seaver used to say that the three basic elements of pitching were command. movement and velocity, with velocity being the least important.  

Pedro Martinez says, “In the minors I focused on working on my ligaments. I never lifted weights. Time has changed and so has training but if you want to become a pitcher you should strive to learn the feel for pitching and the knowledge of what to do with the ball rather than throwing it hard. The analytics department has forced young kids by pressuring them to have revolution, velocity and spin rate… that’s too much for baby ligaments.”

In my opinion if MLB is serious about lowering the instances of elbow injures and TJ surgeries then then need to return to the training habits of yesteryear rather than the stuff the analytic geeks are telling them about velocity and spin rates.

4) Through Mike Trout’s MLB career he has never hit 50 or more HRs in a season.

So far this year (as of 4/11) he has already slugged 6 HRs.

Is this the season Trout reaches 50+ HRs? Why or why not? 

While I think Trout will if he stays healthy, you’re better off expecting him to miss some time than for him to be available for almost every game. He hasn’t been fully healthy since 2016 where he played in 159 games. 2018 and 2019 he played over 130 games, but outside of that, his highest was 119 in 2022 where he hit 40 home runs. He’s a massive power hitter. Expecting him to miss 30-40 games is a realistic expectation, and that’s going to hinder those home run totals.

If he can stay fully healthy, then 50 home runs is extremely reachable for him. So staying on the positive side of this question, Mike Trout will surpass the 50 home run totals this year. 

In recent years Trout had placed more emphasis on power and slugging over making contact. After all that’s the trend in MLB today. It all led to him pulling the ball the more with a lot more strikeouts. So far this season Trout has significantly improved his contact rate to where he is hitting the ball on more than 83% of his swings. Which, if he maintains that rate, would be a new career-best number. In addition he’s cut in half his overall strikeout rate so far this year over last year. 

Now readjusting his approach to making more contact rather power might seem counterintuitive to hitting more HRs… and to a point it has affected his exit velocity rate… he still has the ability to generate top end power when he makes solid contact with the ball. 

The other thing about Trout is this… he has always been a disciplined hitter but this season so far he is having his lowest swing rate (42.3%) and chase rate (18.2%) since the 2021 season.

All that so far seems to have helped him be in a tie for the MLB HR lead with a total of 8. That puts him on track to hit way over 60 HRs for the season.

Now do I think he is going to slug 60-plus HRs this year? I won’t bet against him doing it but in the long run I also wouldn’t bet the ranch on it either.

But I do think he has a great shot at hitting 50-plus this season.

5) Last week MLBRT asked “Who are your under the radar picks to be dark horse candidates to win the  Cy Young in the AL and the NL?”

This week the question becomes…

Who are your under the radar picks to be dark horse candidates to win the  MVP in the AL and the NL? Why?

I’ll start with the National League and go with a player who is very under-the-radar but did finish 11th in voting last season. He’s a catcher for the Milwaukee Brewers with the name William Contreras who’s off to an absolute tear throughout the first month of the season. He has four home runs, 17 runs driven in with a slash line of .358/.443/1.040 and an incredible 191 OPS+. If he continues the way he’s been hitting, and the value he’s given the Brewers’ offense, along with Christian Yelich, he’s going to be in the top five when the end of the season comes near.

He’s got a career .280 batting average and an OPS+ of 126, so expecting his numbers to drop off considerably, or thinking his hot start is out of the realm of his reality is just not a good line of thinking. Contreras also doesn’t have a lot of power bats that’s supporting the team to take votes away from him as teammates. If the Brewers are at the top of the NL Central and win, or even pull a Wild Card slot, will beat expectations for the Brewers and Contreras will drive a lot of extra MVP votes for leading the Brewers towards October baseball. 

In the American League, I want to go with Bobby Witt Jr, but how under the radar is he? So I’ll go with his teammate Salvador Perez. I’m showing love to catchers in this section. Perez had that incredible season in 2021 when he hit 48 home runs and finished seventh in MVP voting. With an offense that’s under-the-radar, Perez has a lot of potential to grab votes and get him ahead of other players. He had a down year last season, so the opportunity for him to rebound and really explode is there. He’s known for power. He’s had a very good start to the season, as well, with five home runs and driving in 17 runs, posting a .324/.370/.943 with an OPS+ of 169. He continues this tear he’s on, he’ll definitely garner huge votes in the MVP race, even with a team that isn’t destined for competitive playoff hopes. 

In the AL I think Adolis Garcia of the Rangers has a shot. 

In 2023 he set career highs in home runs (39), RBIs (107), runs scored (108), slugging percentage (.508) just to mention some of the relevant top categories that the voters tend to look at. If he ups his numbers across the board in those areas he could generate some real talk about his MVP chances. Plus it doesn’t that in 2023 he won his first career Gold Glove Award and was the MVP of the ALCS versus the Astros and was instrumental in helping the Rangers win the first World Series title in franchise history with eight postseason homers.

The underlying metrics suggest he might be ready to launch himself into having a super star year in 2024 and into the MVP conversation.

In the NL it could be the Dodgers’ Will Smith.

I know, I know… what about what I said about him in my answer to the first question? But hear me out.  

Lets’ say he avoids the more serious nicks and bruises catcher tend to get over a season and appears in more games than he usually does… let’s say maybe 150 instead of around his usual about 135. And in the process his plate appearances also go up considerably to around maybe 640 to 650.

Now he has never hit more than 26 doubles or 25 HRs in a season, but he has never had that many PAs before either. So if everything kinda, sorta stays on a par those power numbers should go up.

Now consider that with all of the above and with Betts, Ohtani and Freeman in front of  him in the batting order and Muncy and Hernandez behind him that pitchers give him more pitches to actually put into paly and he raises his BA from his normal .260 or so to around .300 or above.

Would it be inconceivable in that lineup with all those chances for him to have a breakout year and maybe be among the league leaders in RBIs, runs scored as well as having a year where hit 35 doubles and HRs… or maybe 40+ in each category?

This is all about dark horses and while there are a lot of other MVP contenders on the Dodgers there’s no reason why if Smith has a breakout year he couldn’t be in consideration for the MVP if he has that great year.

Extra Innings…