MLBRT 4/11/2024

The questions and discussion…  

1) On Friday (4/5) Guardians ace Shane Bieber decided to have season-ending Tommy John elbow surgery which will be followed by a recovery and rehab period up to 16-months in duration.

Bieber, who is in his final year under contract with the Guardians, was considered to be highly sought after candidate by other MLB teams in the playoff hunt at this year’s trade deadline.  

While Bieber being traded at the deadline is probably not very likely at this point has his potential entrance into free agency and his market value after the season has concluded totally collapsed? Why or why not? 

It’s unfortunate that Shane Bieber has to have Tommy John surgery after a solid start to the 2024 campaign. But, like any pitcher hitting the free agent market after Tommy John surgery, it definitely hits their paycheck very hard. It’s the uncertainty of coming back.

How healthy will he be when he comes back? Will he contribute the same or be a completely different pitcher? Can a team rely on him to be an ace or is he a middle-rotation pitcher now? All these questions factor into team’s decisions to sign long-term, and I think his best option is going to grab a one-year deal with a mutual option for year two and let him redeem himself and prove to teams and the baseball world that he can still pitch at a high level after the surgery.

To make an early prediction, I think he’s going to end up re-signing with Cleveland, as he’ll get to continue finishing up his rehab process in a familiar environment and the organization can take their time in getting him back and know the entire timetable for his return for 2025. 

I think it’s a forgone conclusion he isn’t getting traded this year.

So with that in mind, if the Guardians don’t sign him for another year at ana obvious discounted rate and he does go into free agency I’m sure he will have some suitors looking to sign him on some speculation on what he could bring them after his recovery from his TJ surgery but the price he will cost any team willing to  sign him will be far below, in years and dollars, anything he would have gotten if he were healthy.  

The best scenario for him would be to re-up with Guardians for a year and have a “show ‘em what you got” season and then depending on the results the Guardians will either try to trade him for whatever they can get and/or he will again have the opportunity to be a free agent go with a better market available for his talents… that is assuming he is at least somewhat near what he was producing pre-TJ surgery.

2) After his last start, a game where he lasted only four innings allowing five runs on seven hits with four strikeouts and struggled with control, walking three batters, when Spencer Strider came out of the game he was complaining about his elbow and told the Braves staff that he was uncomfortable with how it was feeling. The team scheduled him to have an MRI done on his problematic elbow.

If the worst case scenario should happen with the MRI can the Braves survive losing Strider if he is sidelined on the IL for any considerable length of time due to his elbow situation? Why or why not?

I think the Braves can survive losing Spencer Strider for the entire season.

The MRI he received showed damage to the UCL which isn’t good news in the slightest. The best possible outcome for him is to avoid surgery and come back after a couple of months of rehab. It’s seeming likely that he’ll probably head for either UCL repair surgery, or a full-blown Tommy John surgery. While that’s an enormous blow to the Atlanta Braves as he was a Cy Young candidate, and a big candidate to push for 300 strikeouts this season, the Braves have the best offense in baseball. They can score a ton of runs.

While allowing runs isn’t a good scenario, they can definitely overcome letting a prospect come up or making a trade for a starting pitcher to help provide depth and rotation arms. Where this is really going to affect them is the playoffs. After an early exit last postseason, they’re going to want to pray that Spencer Strider can recover and pitch for the playoffs. Otherwise, they’re going to have to rely heavily on their offense and other rotation arms to pick up the ace’s slack in order to push for that World Series title so many expected them to grab in 2023. 

The Braves starting pitcher group is maybe the deepest in all of MLB so while losing Strider is a big hit to their rotation it’s not as devastating as it would be if he was on some other teams with a less talent available to jump into their rotations.

Combined with what they have on the major league level and the young prospects they have in the minors plus their arguably number one offense the Braves will be just fine this season. Maybe they won’t win 100-plus games… I wouldn’t bet against it but maybe they won’t… but they should still win the NL East by a comfortable margin and easily be in the playoffs.

However once in the playoffs, if Strider is still on the IL or if he isn’t pitching up to his usual capabilities then that could be an entirely different matter. When teams are i the playoffs they try and get their top two pitchers into games as often as they can. Not having an ace like Strider could be devastating to their playoff rotation especially if they have to face an offensive juggernaut like the Dodgers.

3) Nine games into the new season, the Dodgers are 7-2 and they’ve scored at least five runs in every game, and that’s without Shohei Ohtani doing much of anything. Also as expected, the infield defense has been at best suspect and at worst a liability. Freddie Freeman is an All-Star at first base, and he is also the only Dodgers’ infielder playing his natural position. Max Muncy is a first baseman masquerading as a third baseman, Mookie Betts is a right fielder who was supposed to play second base but is now playing shortstop, and Gavin Lux who was supposed to be the Dodgers’ shortstop this season but had trouble making the throws to first was switched with Betts but now Lux is also having the same issues at second base and is short hopping his throws to first.

Can the Dodgers survive a full season of questionable infield defense and still be a playoff team? Why or why not?

The Dodgers have the second-best offense in all of baseball. Their pitching staff is solid, including their bullpen, and should get some more help when players come back from injury throughout the year. Shohei Ohtani has started hitting home runs and they’ve been scoring a lot of runs and were one of the first two teams to reach the 10-win plateau. As long as their offense continues raking and they get very solid production from top-to-bottom, including an MVP-like season from Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani including power from Max Muncy with Will Smith still providing solid plate appearances after his big contract extension, the Dodgers are going to be fine.

The biggest concern, if I was in the Dodgers’ brass, would be Gavin Lux having trouble throwing the ball from second. That shows, to me, that he has some arm troubles. If it doesn’t affect his hitting, then they shouldn’t really concern too much. They’re still expected to make the postseason and face the Braves in the NLCS. They’re still expected to cruise to 100 wins again. And I don’t think their defensive troubles from the infield is going to knock their projected course off track. 

The Dodgers offense is one of the best in the majors and will produce runs at an exceptionally high rate all through the season. That alone will make up for any runs their so-called questionable infield defense gives  up. Its not the best scenario  but its a doable one.

But in my opinion with Freeman at first and Betts at short the defense isn’t as shabby as it might seem to be at first glance. Muncy might not be a top flight third baseman but he will give them acceptable defense at the position. It’s at second base that their real problem exists. If Lux continues having the yips with his throws Freeman can save a lot of those potential errors but isn’t superman. So if Lux is bouncing his throws more times than not then that is a big problem. And I have a sneaking suspicion if that continues to occur the Dodgers will be looking to trade  for a second baseman who can be a defensive stop gap for the remainder of the season regardless of the cost.

4) It’s the same old story. The Marlins lost some key players, such as Jorge Soler, to free agency, and didn’t spend any money or make any significant moves to improve the club and, as a result, can’t get out of the gate to start the season.

The Miami Marlins are the first playoff team from the previous season to begin the next season with an 0-7 record. And that might just be the tip of the iceberg regarding the Marlins overall problems…  they have been outscored by their opponents by almost four runs per contest so far, and that’s despite opening the season at their home ball field and in consecutive series against the Pirates and the Angels both of whom had losing records in 2023.

If the Marlins continue losing and soon floundering and seemingly out of any hopes of returning to the playoffs will they be having a fire sale of whatever decent players they still have on their roster and once again embark on a rebuilding phase? Why or why not?

The Marlins are projected to be towards the bottom of the league in overall win-loss record. Skip Schumaker has already stated that he’s ready to look for other opportunities after the season concludes. There’s problems within the organization after they moved on from Kim Ng, who seemed to have the Marlins in a good place. They were talking about trading their two top starting pitchers this off-season and they don’t seem to be all-in on winning still. If they don’t make the playoffs, which I don’t expect them to compete for anything other than with the Washington Nationals to not have the cellar when the season concludes, I think they’re definitely going to be sellers and build up prospects. I expect them to be sellers at the trade deadline.

Eury Perez is already out for the season after electing Tommy John surgery. Sandy Alcantara could be a big name that would draw a lot of attention at the trade deadline in which the Marlins can get a huge prospect haul for. They also are going to try and trade Jesus Luzardo, who they were shopping around this off-season. I think both players can get them a nice start on the rebuilding plan with some top prospects, or MLB-ready prospects. 

Simply put, with players such as outfielder Jazz Chisholm, pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Max Meyer and second baseman Luis Arraez when the time comes for the Marlins inevitable fire sale they will have no lack of teams coming to call to make trades.  

Nuff said.   

5) Who are your under the radar picks to be dark horse candidates to win the  Cy Young in the AL and the NL? Why?

I’ll start with the American League, and I’ll go to the worst division in the American League, the AL Central.

The Minnesota Twins have a pitcher who dominated down the stretch last season and should flourish against divisional opponents. Name? Bailey Ober. He posted a 3.43 ERA last season with a 1.07 ERA and 146 strikeouts with only 29 walks. Those are great numbers, and the K-BB ratio is a fantastic indicator of the command and control a pitcher has. While he probably won’t win, I think everyone needs to watch out for him as he’ll sneak in the top five and be the underdog everyone is talking about come the end of the season. 

The other dark horse candidate I have might be on other people’s lists, but I’m going with Chris Sale. I believe he’s going to stay healthy this season and pitch a full year. He’s going to get back to what we saw when he was with the White Sox and emerging in the league as a dominant pitcher. He’s also going to get help by the Braves’ offense and a lot of run support behind him. While he does have to face the Phillies quite often this season being in the same division, I think Sale is going to re-emerge as a top pitcher and also be in the top five for Cy Young voting. With Spencer Strider possibly out for an extended period of time, the misfortune will give Sale more opportunities to step up and fill in the missing ace piece in Atlanta’s rotation and swipe some NL Cy Young votes

Tarik Skubal from the tigers is my AL dark horse candidate.

After he was out of the game for a year due to a tendon surgery he came and posted a 2.80 ERA 80-plus innings. He finished the season strong and in September he struck out nearly 10 times as many batters (43) as he walked (4). I think if he stays healthy and pitches through the entire season he will have a stellar year and will attract a lot of attention from the voters for the AL Cy Young.  

The Cubs Shota Imanaga is my NL dark horse candidate.

He has a diverse pitching repertoire, including a four-seam fastball, a sharp slider, a deceptive changeup, and a developing curveball. His fastball typically sits in the low-to-mid 90s, showing good movement and late life. The combination of his secondary pitches showcases his ability to keep hitters off balance and generate swings and misses. He also has the ability to locate his pitches effectively, hitting his spots with precision. This command allows him to work both sides of the plate and keep hitters guessing. His excellent control minimizes walks and puts him ahead in counts, giving him an advantage in dictating the flow of the game.

In his debut game this season Imanaga took a no-hitter into the sixth inning against an admittedly weak Rockies lineup and finished the day with two singles allowed in six shutout innings. He struck out nine and did not walk a batter. Then he had another fine perfromance in a rain-delayed game verus the Ddodgers where he struck out three and allowed only two hits over four scoreless innings before the skies opened in the home half of the fourth at Wrigley Field, interrupting play for nearly three hours and wound up stopping him going for his second win. Through his first two MLB starts, the former DeNA BayStars standout has fanned 12, walked none and given up only four hits in 10 scoreless innings. I predict this level of ptiching will conitnue throug ht he season and he will wind up getting a lot of consdieration for the NL Cy Young this season.  

Extra innings…