MLBRT 3/28/2024

The questions and discussion…  

1) The Dodgers started off the 2024 MLB season in Seoul, South Korea and won the first game by a 5-2 score. But before the team could even prepare for Game 2, a gambling scandal had boiled up around their star player Shohei Ohtani in which Ohtani’s lawyers have accused his now-former interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara of stealing millions of dollars from him to cover illegal gambling debts. 

What is your take on this developing story?

And do you think it will taint Ohtani in any manner and/or lead to a possible suspension of some form for Ohtani? Why or why not?  

While initially, I don’t think this is going to taint or lead to a suspension from Shohei Ohtani, it definitely is a little concerning regarding all of the facts of this situation.

Ohtani says that this was a close friend and he didn’t know that $4.5million was stolen from his bank account. The initial questions, which we still want answers from, was how did Ippei Mizuhara gain access to his bank account in order to steal that amount of money without Ohtani knowing about it? The other initial question regarding the money that was taken was did Ohtani know that Mizuhara had a problem, and gave it to him so that he was out of trouble with an illegal gambling ring, but claimed it was stolen to get out of any trouble that might come back to him in relation to this? Was Mizuhara gambling for Ohtani?

There’s a lot of questions that we didn’t receive answers to in Shohei Ohtani’s press conference. But with knowing the statements, and the facts of this case, I would say that Ohtani is in the clear right now. Mizuhara had access, in some form, to his bank account and was able to steal the money from Ohtani to repay illegal gambling debts, since California is not legally allowed to gamble on sports currently.

I’m definitely awaiting more facts to come out from the case, especially bank information. To hear that Ohtani didn’t know anything about this is a little concerning to me, especially since he just got married and signed an enormous contract with the Dodgers (with much deferred). I personally feel like Ohtani knew a little bit about what was going on, but wasn’t involved in the gambling aspect or the conduct that Mizuhara was actually doing. But I think he knew about the money and knew who it was going to. 

It is certainly a tangled web of intrigue to say the least.

First, I want to know how does anyone get millions of dollars in debt to a bookie in the first place? That to me is outstanding number and incomprehensible.

Second, if Ohtani is in any way connected to paying anything to an illegal bookie as was initially alleged by Mizuhara… whether he placed bets of any sort or not… he is certainly going to taint his rep among the fans and might have his contract called into question but as long as he was just covering Mizuhara’s debt I would think he comes out of this so-called scandal fairly okay.

If he gambled that opens up a whole other can of worms and he will most likely wind up being subjected to a ban/suspension from MLB of some sort and his contract might be considered to be in question by MLB and/or the Dodgers.  Even then I think, unless he bet on MLB games, he would he would be subjected to a some sort of penalty that would be determined at the discretion of the commissioner so again he would probably come out of the entire ordeal relatively unscathed.

The best scenario for Ohtani, the Dodgers and MLB is that what he and his lawyers told  everyone at the press conference addressing Mizuhara’s allegations and involvement with an illegal bookie is true and that he had no idea what Mizuhara was doing, and that Mizuhara stole the money from his accounts to pay his bookie.

2) At this point in time, in your opinion which active MLB player is the best starting pitcher in MLB? Why?

The best starting pitcher in baseball is Spencer Strider of the Atlanta Braves.

His strikeout-to-walk ratio is top notch of current pitchers, and he also doesn’t allow baserunners much, and if he does, he doesn’t allow them to score a whole lot as evidenced by his 3.37 career ERA (2.85 league-leading FIP last season), 1.054 WHIP and 483 strikeouts in 320 career innings pitched.

While those are fantastic numbers by a player who is entering his third full season in the majors, now take into consideration that he has only been utilizing two pitches – a slider and a fastball. Two pitches is usually what makes closers and late-game relievers dominant in baseball in today’s game. But for a starting pitcher to dominate how he does with only two pitches is incredible.

Let’s factor in future predictions as well. He’s going to be pushing 300 strikeouts this season once again. He’s going to be one of the best pitchers and in the race for NL Cy Young yet again. He has the best offense in baseball supporting him to really run his wins total up to a possible 20-win season again. And he added a pitch in the off-season and Spring Training to his arsenal, a pitch to change speeds and the pace of an at-bat. He added a curveball. If it’s as successful as his other two pitches, Strider is going to be even more dominant than before and make him push even farther ahead of the starting pitching class. 

I’m going with the Braves’ Spencer Strider.

In 2023 he went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.093 WHIP, and had 281 strikeouts in 186.2 innings pitched while walking just 58 for a very nice 4.64 strikeout to walk rate.

That ERA is a tad on the high side but is tempered by his respectable WHIP.  

And to top it all off he is only 25 years of age.

Overall Strider is right now the best starter in MLB in my view.

3) According to a CBS Sports report Blake Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, and the San Francisco Giants have agreed to a two-year contract worth $62 million that reportedly includes an opt-out.

Various talking heads have voiced the opinion that Snell had to “settle” for a short term contract instead of finding a team that would pay him more money as well as more years in a longer term deal.

What is your opinion regarding Snell’s contract? Why?

I like the Snell contract. He gets good money for a short-term contract in a ballpark that is similar to Petco Park in terms of poor park factor, although definitely higher than Petco. That should help him out. He’s a two-time Cy Young Award winner, coming off a 2.28 ERA, 182 ERA+ season for the Padres last season.

The only problem is his two seasons where he won Cy Young are anomalies in his career statistics. Take, for instance, 2022, where he posted a 3.38 ERA and a 112 ERA+. Then 2021, where he posted a below 100 ERA+ [92 ERA+] with a 4.20 ERA in his first season with the Padres. He also only has two seasons with over 130 innings pitched, which were both his Cy Young Award-winning seasons (180.2 innings pitched in 2018 with a 1.89 ERA and 217 ERA+, and last season with 180.2 innings pitched). His health is a factor as well as his inconsistency. If he can continue his form from last season, his contract will be well worth it. If he struggles to pitch an extended amount of innings or struggles in his first year, the second year will be a make-it-or-break-it season for his next contract. 

While there are certainly those who would say he had to settle for contract below what he was seeking long term I got to say this…

What? $31 million a year is a failure?

Plus I have to cite what Baker Mayfield told reporters when he was asked about the deal he signed with the Buccaneers… three years, $100 million contract worth up to $115 million in incentives and $50 million guaranteed.. versus what Kirk Cousins got with the Falcons… four years, $180 million ($45 million per average per year) $90 million guaranteed with a $50 million signing bonus when he said, “… this is life-changing money and I’m not going to act otherwise. It’s something that I’ve worked extremely hard for over the years and many years of football. I’m grateful for it. There’s nothing to be ashamed about. There’s nothing to say, ‘Oh, well he got more.’ It’s not that mentality.”

I think the same thing plays out here with Snell… $31 million a year is life changing money, and he has nothing to be ashamed about with signing this deal with the Giants. Besides if he has another great year, maybe wins another Cy Young or at least is in the top five of the voting, he can opt out and try for that long term deal all over again if he so desires.

But regardless… $31 million a year ain’t nothing to sneeze at.

4) Yoshinobu Yamamoto was chased after one inning in his MLB debut versus the San Diego Padres. Yamamoto, who was signed for a $325 million, 12-year contract as a free agent by LA, allowed five runs, four hits, one walk, a hit batter and a wild pitch. 

Should the Dodgers be overly concerned regarding Yamamoto’s inauspicious MLB debut? Why or why not?

I don’t think the Dodgers should be concerned with what happened in Yamamoto’s first career start against the Padres. It’s his first career MLB start. I want to reiterate that point because he’s going to have bugs and hiccups in his first season. Let him get it out early. Once he gets comfortable, he should be good to go for himself. He’s coming out of Spring Training with an early game to start his season.

I think the real concern needs to come once he gets to start four or five and nothing has changed. Remember, Yamamoto dominated in Japan with a 1.72 ERA, 986 strikeouts in 967.2 innings and a sub-1.00 WHIP. He’ll regain form and turn into the pitcher that attracted him to earn such a large contract and as much hype in the off-season that he received. It’s just about patience for the Dodgers. 

Considering he didn’t exactly excel during spring training and then got his butt handed to him when facing MLB batters for real in MLB competition it would seem to certainly suggest that some folks   the Dodgers front office a tad nervous about now I would think.

However, it’s a long season and thing  can change in a heartbeat in MLB.  

Besides there is going to be some sort of an adjustment period for Yamamoto from pitching in the NPB to MLB. Maybe he won’t be the next Cy Young but let’s give him a little room to grow and adjust before saying he is going to be a complete bust as a MLB pitcher.  

5) With the Blake Snell signing the San Francisco Giants have now added a front line starter along with third baseman Matt Chapman, DH/outfielder Jorge Soler, reliever Jordan Hicks (who they will try as a starter) and KBO MVP and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee in free agency.

Have the Giants done enough this off-season to close the gap in the NL West versus the Dodgers, and arguably the Padres and D’backs, to make them serious contenders to win the division? Why or why not?

I think the Giants have done enough to upgrade their team to compete for a Wild Card, but this is the Dodgers’ division to lose. They’re by and far the best team in the NL West. They’re one of the best teams in all of baseball, outside of the Atlanta Braves. So I fully expect the Dodgers to clear 100 wins for yet another season.

But as far as the Giants, I think they took a leap forward and are competing for a top Wild Card spot with the Phillies (who could be very dangerous this year as well). The Giants know how to field a team together. They have a solid 1-2 punch for the rotation, led by Blake Snell, who, if he continues form from last season, will be dominant and the leading force for their staff. They need Jordan Hicks to be able to turn into a starter rather smoothly and provide a solid middle-rotation arm for them. Logan Webb is a solid pitcher and he needs to have a solid season for them. They have a solid offense all-around who can contribute hits, which they’re known for. They not very home run prone, which can lead to a lot of hits and a lot of poor situations for opposing pitchers.

The only problem, and this could be a benefit for their pitching staff, is that the ballpark isn’t hitter-friendly, and the wind that comes from the bay restricts home runs and is cold in the spring/fall time. But that can also be a benefit to the team as they get used to it, but opponents are coming from warmer areas so the cold air can throw off their rhythm and momentum. 

The Giants had a decent offseason, and they at least made themselves contenders with their moves.

They got both Chapman and Snell on what have to be considered team friendly deals in this era of big free agency contracts and both players will undoubtedly greatly improve the Giants for the 2024 season. And adding Jung Hoo Lee to provide some needed OBP was a good move, also.

I’m unsold the signing of Jordan Hicks to be a starter and think they should simply stick him in the bullpen, and they’d be a whole lot better off in the long run.

Overall  I think the Giants will contend to be a Would Card team but unless the Dodgers’ lineup is either beset by a ton of injuries or every player just has an off-season I don’t see the Giants, or any other team i the NL West, winning the division.

But then weirder things have happened in MLB. So that’s why they play 162 games.

But if I was betting my money on which team wins the NL West… I take the Dodgers over the field.  

Extra Innings…