MLBRT 3/21/2024

The questions and discussion…  

1) According to a CBSSports.com article on March 1: “Seven of our top free agents remain if unsigned with Opening Day less than four weeks away, including three of the top 10. J.D. Martinez, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell are the top unsigned free agents. All… are Scott Boras’ clients, so perhaps the sluggish free agent market is simply a matter of Boras driving a hard bargain and/or misreading the market. That said, other bona fide major leaguers like Brandon Belt, Michael Lorenzen, Tommy Pham, and Michael A. Taylor are unsigned and they are not Boras clients. Look around the league and it’s not hard to see how they could help multiple teams, and yet it’s now March, and all four are still unsigned. Even non-Boras clients are having trouble finding work.”

On Thursday (2/29), Enrique Hernández appeared on the “Foul Territory” YouTube show and voiced his displeasure with the state of free agency, and went as far as to suggest owners are colluding against the players. Here are the relevant parts: “I’m not going to say the C-word, but I think the C-word needs a capital C,” Hernández said, referring to collusion. He added, “The timing of the calls (from teams) was very similar. The numbers were pretty much the same throughout.”

In your opinion do you think that there is any validity to Hernández’ allegations that the owners of MLB’s franchises are engaging in deflating and restricting free agency through the act of collusion? Why or why not?

I think there’s some validity to Enrique Hernandez’s comments on the owners deflating and restricting the prices of free agency, but I don’t think it’s fully valid. As we’ve noticed the past couple of seasons, this trend of waiting almost until spring training or during spring training where players are getting signed has been occurring. And I don’t think it’s so much to deflate the market, but rather that these players are asking too high of a price to sign with a team. And they either have injury questions or overall reliability questions. Teams are also trying to go cheaper after seeing that having the best success doesn’t come from spending the most money. You see the Rays, Orioles, Braves and other teams developing home-grown talent and winning games. They’re being successful taking players in the draft or through trades and playing them when they’re ready to make an impact at the MLB level and that seems to be the route more teams are wanting to go instead of spending money on free agency. And it’s more cost effective. It’s better to keep players in-house and develop and know their ins and outs. Players also are notorious for having down seasons after signing contracts for new teams in new cities. And teams want to avoid that. I don’t think it’s so much of a collusion against free agency and players, but more-so an effort to cut payroll and maximize profits by growing their own talent through their farm system and the draft and sticking with those players. 

Personally I don’t trust the owners of the MLB franchises as far as I could throw one of them and I would never put anything past them, and I do believe they are always doing something sneaky ass behind the scenes. So, yeah, I do think there is some form of validity to Hernández’ allegations that the owners of MLB’s franchises are engaging in deflating and restricting free agency through collusion of some sort.

Are they outright getting together and formally meeting as a collective cabal and to restrict and  hold down the players salaries? Probably not.

Be that as it may be I do think with the unofficial salary cap in place… aka as the luxury tax for teams that surpass certain payroll levels… and how money gets disbursed to so-called smaller market teams that the owners are, to put it nicely, somewhat being very frugal in how they pay certain so-called mid-level players or are willing to go after said players because of a general feeling their agents are seeking salaries they are not willing to pay so that they either stay under the luxury tax threshold or stay eligible to get luxury tax money.  

The day the players union allowed the luxury tax to go into effect probably had union organizer and former MLBPA executive Marvin Miller rolling over in his grave in shock and protest.  

2) The Philadelphia Phillies and pitcher Zack Wheeler have reached an agreement on what is being reported as a three-year, $126 million contract extension. At this point the Phillies, front of the Phillies’ rotation appears set for years to come, with Wheeler and Aaron Nola now under contract in long-term deals.

Where does the Phillies starting rotation rank among the rotations in the NL? Why?

I think the Phillies rotation is going to be dangerous and ranks among one of the best in the National League.

Having Philadelphia be able to lock up both of their top pitchers for years to come is definitely a big help. It means that they can have more filler options for the rest of their rotation with support from the top. Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in the game, so getting him locked in for years to come on a good deal is huge. And having a strong one-two punch in a starting rotation is going to win you a lot of games, especially come the postseason when teams rely heavily on their top two pitchers. 

With two of the better starting pitchers in MLB now locked up for the foreseeable future…

I think the Phillies starting rotation now ranks among, at the minimum, as one of the top five in the NL if not MLB.

Smart move by the Phillies to lock up both of those guys.  

3) Aaron Judge has always said that he prefers to bat either third or fourth in the Yankees’ batting order instead of manager Aaron Boone’s tendency to have him hit second or at times leadoff. Now with Juan Soto on the team the prevailing word is that Soto will be hitting in the second spot with Judge batting third. That leaves the question…

Who bats lead-off, effectively setting the table for Soto and Judge, for the Yankees in the 2024 season? Why?

The Yankees are in a nice position to have flexibility in their lineup each and every game. You can start out with Juan Soto in the leadoff role as he’s known for drawing a lot of walks, being able to consistently get on base, and has a great eye at the plate. He’s what you want for a leadoff hitter, but he provides too much value in the two-hole to sit leadoff, unless you put Judge at number two or mix the two players with Stanton in the two hole.

Otherwise, I think it comes down to Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu where both are pretty reliable to get on base with on-base percentages in the mid 3s. Torres is faster and draws a little more walks than DJ does, but LeMahieu isn’t as home run driven and strikes out a little less. I’d rather put speed on bases and have someone a tad more reliable at the plate in my leadoff spot, even if he’s able to put up mid-20s/low-30s home run totals on the year. I’d do a committee lead-off spot to start off the season and go with the hot bat. 

If DJ LeMahieu is finally fully healthy and can return to being the hitter they believed the Yankees were  getting when they signed him to a 6-year extension in 2021… after all he had slashed .336/.386/.536 in 195 games with the Yankees over the previous two seasons and in 2020 had just led the American League in batting average (.364), on-base percentage (.421) and OPS (1.011)… then he is the team’s best choice to bat leadoff in front of Soto and then Judge in the batting order.

Everything on the offensive front this season depends upon the Yankees hitters staying relatively healthy all through their lineup otherwise 2024 will just wind up being a repeat of the 2023 season.

4) On March 14 t CBSSports.com in its ”Batting Around” column (kinda, sorta its version of a roundtable discussion) asked the question: For the 2024 MLB season would you rather have Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto?

So MLBRT asks the same question now… Who would you rather have… remember this is just for the 2024 season… Ohtani or Soto? Why?

I’ll take Shohei Ohtani for the 2024 season. He’s an on-base machine who can mash 60+ home runs for the season and give you 20 stolen bases on the year. Yeah, he does strike out a little more than Soto and isn’t a master at the strike zone, but he’s a fantastic hitter. He led the American League in on-base percentage last season and with the lineup that he’s in this year for the Dodgers, it makes him even more dangerous to lead the league in on-base percentage again with huge numbers. Granted, his numbers from last season was on a poor Angels’ roster who were missing Trout for over half of the season yet he still was putting up great numbers. He’s an insane hitter, who can also pitch, and there’s rumors circulating that he could pitch in the second half of 2024 so that would bring his value up ten-fold by having a player who can also provide pitching depth for you while not losing any touch at the plate. 

Tough question to answer.

Referring to the my answer to question two and the last part of that answer it all depends upon the Yankees’ hitters being healthy this year because if they are then I think Soto and Judge could have a season to rival the season that Maris and Mantle had for the Yankees in 1961.  

However, I’ll go with the known quantity the Dodgers with their already healthy lineup that has a batting order that features three of top four NL MVP favorites in Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. With Ohtani having some superior protection surrounding him in the Dodgers’ lineup that the didn’t have with the Angels, I look for Ohtani to explode offensively in 2024 and out produce anything he has already put up through any of his previous years in MLB.

5) After experiencing elbow pain/discomfort after his last spring training appearance Yankees pitcher Gerritt Cole underwent an MRI, CT scan, and X-rays and then underwent further testing during an in-person appointment with renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

The good news was that Cole can avoid Tommy John surgery and he could return after “rest, rehab and some conservative, non-surgical” treatment. 

The bad news was that Cole will be unavailable to pitch for the Yankees for at least a month including three to four weeks of not throwing a ball at all as well as the time he would need to ramp back up and be capable of pitching every fifth day in the team’s starting rotation.  

Can the Yankees survive having Cole being absent from its rotation for that length of a time and still be a playoff team? Why or why not?

I don’t think the Yankees can survive Gerritt Cole being out for an extended period of time especially with their offense still not as strong as they would like or that it should be.

They added Soto to the line-up, which helps out a lot including helping out with taking pressure off of Aaron Judge and giving opposing pitchers more incentive to pitch to Judge and having Soto leading to more opportunities, more runs, etc. for not just those two but the entire line-up but losing their ace with an already shaking starting rotation is going to be extremely tough. Especially if he has to be out for longer than the timetable that’s been pre-given.

The other problem is that a lot of times, with arm injuries to pitchers, the best route is surgery and biting the bullet, which might end up happening. If he comes back and pitches poorly and still has arm issues that linger all season, now you’re just extending his absence out into next season and beyond, which is the biggest obstacle they should be trying to avoid.

I’m not sure the Yankees are going to be a playoff team this season with a healthy Cole, and without him healthy, I don’t think they’re going to be any better than they were last season.

As long as Cole is only going to be out from the team’s rotation for the estimated timetable and can return to be the ace that he has been for the Yankees then they have are fairly decent chance to be a playoff team this season.

However if he winds up having further difficulties recovering from the suggested nerve irritation causing the problems then the Yankees 2024 season and their playoff hopes could be in a heap of trouble.

As a Yankee fan  I hope the rumored talks they are having with Jordan Montgomery are more than just a rumor and they wind up singing his butt. Can’t ever have too much pitching in my opinion.

Extra Innings…