MLBRT 2/8/2024

 

The questions and discussion…  

1) On Thursday (2/1) the Baltimore Orioles executed a trade to acquire staring pitcher Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers for a pair of 25-year old prospects and a competitive balance draft pick.

How does Burnes addition effect the Orioles’ starting pitching rotation? Why?

And in your opinion how do the Orioles present starters compare with the top starting pitching rotations presently in MLB? Why?

Corbin Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He recently had a Cy Young Award, routinely is known for his strikeouts and command of the strike zone and doesn’t allow a lot of runs and posted the best WHIP in the National League (1.069) last season. He’s had three consecutive seasons of at least 200 strikeouts. He’s also been rather consistent and healthy as the ace of the Brewers’ staff.

With rumors that Scott Boras is going to have him test the free agency market, and most likely priced out of Milwaukee’s budget in terms of contract asking-price, the Brewers got what they could get for him.

Baltimore absolutely improved their starting rotation. Boasting one of the best teams in all of baseball last year, led by a strong, top-10 finishing ERA in all of baseball. And they got the best pitcher from the team who led the MLB in ERA last year.

The Orioles starting rotation matches up well with others across the MLB now as they gained more than they lost in getting Corbin Burnes. The Orioles had a 42% quality start percentage last season, which was well above league average. They matched the Brewers. While Kyle Gibson, who had 17 quality starts last season, went to St Louis, replacing him with Corbin Burnes (19 quality starts) and matching him with Kyle Bradish (18 quality starts) should only improve their starting rotation. 

More often than not pitching is the biggest reason teams win in the post season. And a lack of top of the line starting pitching is very arguably why the Orioles didn’t advance far in the playoffs despite winning 101 games in the regular season.

The Orioles have a very good young core of players that should be in place for years to come pe ne owners coming on board who have cash to spend.  They also have one of the deepest minor league systems with some very highly regarded prospects. This is a team that is well positioned to be a World Series contender for many seasons into the future including next year with one big “if.” Which is they lack a pons g pitcher who can be their stopper in times of adversity as well as the guy they rely upon to win big games.

Corbin Burnes fills that need with an exclamation point.

The 29-year-old righty won the Cy Young in 2021 and has been in the conversation for the award in each of the last two years.

He is a four pitch hurler with a top of the line cutter plus an excellent curve and adds a decent slider and changeup. And he doesn’t miss taking his spot in the rotation due to needing rest or injury, Simply put he is a durable pitcher who has pitched at least 165 innings in each of the last three seasons including 193+ innings last season and a career-high 202 innings in 2022 and has been effective doing it. MLB has just eight starters who have thrown more than 500 innings over the last three years. That group includes Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes.

And Burnes has thrown 200 or more strikeouts each of the past three years, with 234 in 2021, an NL-high 243 in 2022 and 200 last season. His 765 strikeouts since the beginning of the 2020 season are second most in MLB, behind only the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (816).

Although it’s a small sample he has had success against AL East teams… in five career starts versus the East he has a 1.26 ERA although two of those outings came against the Orioles. But he pitched well in each game he appeared in against the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays one time apiece, including throwing eight no-hit innings versus the Yankees.

And one last and not very small thing… he is playoff tested. During his six seasons with the Brewers, the team made five postseason appearances and he pitched in eight postseason games, including two as a starter, and in 19 innings posted a 2.84 ERA.  

And finally in order to get Burnes the Orioles didn’t exactly bankrupt their stash of their best prospects… in other words, Baltimore filled its biggest need with a three-time All-Star, and it didn’t give up anyone it couldn’t afford to lose.

Burnes elevates the Orioles rotation into being among the best in MLB along with the Braves, Mariners and Dodgers.

2) For the upcoming MLB season if you had the power: What is the one rule change you’d like implement in MLB? Why?

I have two rule changes I would implement, but one of them is just removing a rule. The removal would be the runner on second base in extra innings. It’s the most Little League rule I could think of and takes a lot of the meaning of the whole game away once they get to extra innings because a single could win a game for a team if the automatic runner on second base was fast enough, or the ball was hit right. The whole game tossed away because of a runner nobody had any control over, was automatically placed on second and because a pitcher allowed a hit, the game is over? Yet any other time if a pitcher allows a single, he has the ability to work out of it with multiple batters? Just stupid. 

But the one rule I would implement would be requiring a pitcher to hit one time during each game for each team. So you start off the game with the starter (or maybe you can put in a reliever to hit later in the game). But for at least one at-bat for the entire game, you have to have the pitcher take at least one at-bat. I think while it won’t be the most ideal rule for teams and front offices and organizations, I think it would be the most fun for fans. We could see players like Carlos Zambrano, Madison Bumgarner, Dontrelle Willis again. We could see home runs by pitchers and see that they do have ability hitting. But they only get one at-bat. So it adds more strategy to each manager’s day, which most would probably say they don’t need more added. Or, as evidence in the book Ozzie’s School of Management, strategy is already hard enough for managers. But, let’s add some fun. Yeah, we might see some bunting. Yeah, we might see strikeouts added. But, we could also get a lot of fun out of it. 

I’m going along with Dan and the one big rule change I would make is to subtract a rule already in existence.

Without a doubt I would eliminate the one of the dumbest MLB moves ever when they decided to put a automatic runner on second in extra-inning games.

Gone, done with, never to see the light of day again ever in any MLB game.

3) Recently the Seattle Mariners acquired 2B/3B Jorge Polanco from the Minnesota Twins for RHPs Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa and minor league players OF Gabriel Gonzalez and RHP Darren Bowen.

What is your opinion of this trade? Why?

I think this is a good trade for both sides.

Not only is Seattle sending over multiple players and getting a very good offensive, middle-infielder, they’re also sending over additional money to Minnesota to help out the contract of Anthony DeSclafani. The Twins are wanting to put that extra money back into the roster to grab either a reliever or a corner outfielder, so it will let them get additional resources to help them push for contention in the AL Central, which is going to be wide open yet again.

Second base was a weak spot on Seattle last season, starting off the season with Kolten Wong who didn’t work out, then they traded Sewald to Arizona to get Josh Rojas, but that didn’t fix their problem either. Getting Polanco really helps secure that position for the upcoming season. Polanco was one of the best offensive middle-infielder available on the trade market, so securing this trade helps a ton. Rojas and Urias as a platoon at second wasn’t going to be the winning solution for Seattle.

As for the Twins, Justin Topa made 75 appearances last season with a 2.61 ERA, including 56.7% ground ball rate. If he can keep that production up, the Twins have a very solid reliever in their arsenal. They also got some help at the starter front after Tyler Mahle, Maeda and Sonny Gray all have left after last season. Gabriel Gonzalez is a corner outfield prospect with a lot of offensive potential and good defensive traits. His walk rate has been disappointing, but if he can correct that out in multiple years in the minors still, as he’s very young, he should reach his full potential and be a valuable future asset for the Twins. 

As recently as 2021 Polanco hit 33 home runs, but since then injuries have limited him just 30 HRs totals over the last two seasons. However if he can avoid the injury bug he fills Seattle’s need for a decent fielding second baseman who can provide some pop for the middle of the Mariners batting order.

The Twins will get starter DeSclafani who will help replace losing starters Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda who left as free agents. The Twins also lost reliever Emilio Pagan to free agency this off-season, so Topa replaces him in the bullpen.

And Gonzalez was reportedly Seattle’s #5 prospect who projects to be a power hitting right fielder. While Bowen is a low level pitching prospect who could provide depth for the Twins in case of a need for an emergency starter at some point in 2024.

All in all a good old MLB trade that helps both teams.

4) The Texas Rangers have added 15-year veteran reliever David Robertson to their bullpen staff.

How do you rate this signing? What effect will Robertson have on the Rangers’ bullpen? Why?

I think this is a good signing for David Robertson. He had an excellent 40-game stretch for the New York Mets last year, before struggling at the beginning of his stint with the Marlins after getting traded at the trade deadline. He had a 2.05 ERA in 40 innings, striking out 28% of opposing batters. He was taken out of the closer role in Miami and responded very well for a nice September, allowing only 2 runs in his final 10-plus innings to finish off the season.

He’s going to add a lot of value at the back-end of the Texas Rangers’ bullpen and provide some help to get them on a path to return to the World Series again. Despite his age, if he can bring back his success he had with the New York Mets, and what he had in his earlier career, he will be a huge asset added to the Texas Rangers after they’ve had a relatively quiet off-season. 

Robertson is a proven durable and successful reliever who is regarded as one of the better setup men in the league who if needed can step up and be the closer.

A good deal for both the player and the Rangers.

5) The Milwaukee Brewers have agreed to a deal with 1B/DH Rhys Hoskins.

How do you rate this signing? What effect will Hoskins have on the Brewers’ lineup?

I think this is a great signing for the Brewers.

While Hoskins did miss most of last season with an injury, he provides the Brewers’ lineup with a power bat at a position they’ve had to plug and play in, especially last season when they were dealing with injuries.

After trading Corbin Burnes, the Brewers are going to have to rely on their offense to lead their path to attempting to repeat as NL Central champions. They’re also looking to trade Devin Williams, although I’m not sure that’s too likely to happen as he’s still under club control for two more seasons. Willy Adames has also been linked to trade rumors as well, so making sure the offense has power, pop and consistency is going to be a big piece. With looking at last season, the Brewers had a lot of problems on the offensive side with lack of overall run support, very inconsistent performance at the plate, and lacking overall with more strikeouts than anybody imagined to start off the season. So Hoskins is a great signing for Milwaukee in their limited spending capacity. Improving first base and getting a reliable, everyday option is ideal for the Brewers, who usually just grab very cheap options to plug and play in as contributors.

The Brewers still need to get some offensive help for next season, but if they can get consistent offensive play from Yelich again, their offense should look improved from last season, which is going to help tremendously with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff both not on the roster anymore. 

Hoskins, who missed the entire 2023 season after tearing an ACL, was let without a position Philadelphia when the Phillies made Bryce Harper their everyday first baseman and had Kyle Schwarber as their DH,

In Hoskins the Brewers get a player who when healthy is a 27+ HR first baseman who will likely provide solid production in the middle of an emerging Milwaukee lineup.

Extra Innings…