MLBRT 2/22/2024

The questions and discussion…  

1) In light of the fact that some top free agents have yet to be signed and spring training is right around the corner on Thursday (2/15) commissioner Rob Manfred said “We would prefer to have a free-agent signing period, ideally probably in December with a deadline that drove people to make their deals, get things settled. We actually made proposals to that effect, to the MLBPA. They were not warmly received.” He added, “One of the tactics that’s available to player representatives is to stretch out the negotiation in the belief that they’re going to get a better deal. That’s part of the system right now. There’s not a lot we can do about it. But certainly from an aspirational perspective, we’d rather have two weeks of flurried activity in December, preferably around the winter meetings.”

Agent Scott Boras replied to Manfred’s statement by saying, “Deadlines are death-lines to the players. It’s a death of their right (to free agency). It’s an artificial reason not to get your value. Teams cannibalize deadlines. Everything they would do would be around the deadline. ‘I’ll wait and get this value at this time, because I have a deadline,’ rather than, ‘What’s the player worth?'”

What is your view of this back and forth between the commissioner and Boras? Why?

And…

Do you think a deadline to sign free agent players would be good for MLB or not especially in the best interests of the game overall? Why or why not?

I’m on the side of Boras on this one.

To answer both questions right away, I think making a deadline does exactly what Boras had expressed to Manfred: it cuts down the value of the deals and is bad for the sport. Teams will wait for the two week period to end, sign a bunch of players at the end of the free agency period, and because it’s limited to only those two weeks, teams will have all the power in waiting where as a player who would’ve received a $300 million deal, will instead receive $250 million or less driving their contracts down. It’s bringing teams to have full control. “You only have one day left to sign, good luck with a team beating us out” or “you’re down to the final hours, do you want to play this year or not?” and then the players are getting stiffed by the owners in money they deserve and have earned by their play.

Now I think a deadline or time limit for new entries (NPB players coming over) would be fine. One week to put in a bid for the player. One week for the player to decide. If nothing happens, then he didn’t get accepted and goes back to NPB. I wouldn’t oppose that, as the current structure is, but for a regular free agent, I’m in total disagreement and I would never see this getting approved by the MLBPA. 

Manfred is leaving no doubt about who he works… i.e. the owners. The title of Commissioner of MLB seems to imply is the person in that job represents all of MLB in reality that was never true and obviously with Manfred coming out and saying what he is spouting here that continues to be a fact.

Scott Boras is totally on point when he says “Everything they would do would be around the deadline. ‘I’ll wait and get this value at this time, because I have a deadline,’ rather than, ‘What’s the player worth?'” for the simple reason that what Manfred is proposing is nothing more than an attempt to restrain paying the players what they are worth in relationship to the money that MLB hauls in in annual revenues that are driven by what the players do on the field of play. In essence Manfred’s proposal would in some respects would be a new version of the days when players contracts were manipulated by the reserve clause that existed prior to free agency existing.

MLB creating a free-agent signing period with a deadline would be great for the owners and totally suck for the players.

2) And on Thursday Manfred also announced that his current term as MLB commissioner will be his final one and that he will step down from the job  when the term ends in January 2029. 

Overall what is your appraisal of Manfred as the commissioner of MLB?

Overall, I don’t think that Manfred has been bad or good.

He’s had some tough navigational points in his tenure, especially with having to deal and dish out punishments for the Houston Astros’ sign-stealing scandal that went on throughout the playoffs and to their World Series victory. But what he will be most known for, were the changes he made to MLB last season installing a pitch clock, increasing the base sizes, limiting the shift almost completely as well as limiting mound visits and implementing a minimum number of batters faced required by a pitcher when they come in the game. Not only did he shave off 24 minutes per game, stolen bases went up tremendously, having over 20 teams with double digit steals, and a big upgrade in teams over 100 stolen bases. Those moves also increased batting average across the league, increased run scoring, and really benefited the game in almost every way possible. More hits where they should’ve been, more stolen bases and more action. Quicker game play. Less time between pitches where we don’t have to have down time of just watching the pitcher walk around the mound. There were six games that went over four hours last year, and those six games went to the 12th inning or later. I think that will be his most memorable change during his tenure. 

Considering the fact that Manfred was hired by the 30 billionaire team ownership groups, and that he essentially answers to those billionaires and that during his time commissioner he has managed to drive MLB into a business with ten billion dollar plus revenues per year he has by that perspective been a big success. He short he has done what he was hired to do… make money for MLB.

As for some of his decisions that he made during his time as the commissioner… he totally screwed  up the investigation of the Astros cheating scandal, and the elimination of a quarter of the minor leagues hurt professional baseball being presented in towns and cities that otherwise would never see any pro ball whatsoever and at the same time took away jobs for players which in effect was a form of restraining their trade and anti-labor.

Yeah some of his decisions did help improve the presentation of the product on the field to a point… such as the introduction of the pitch clock and the other various rule changes he helped institute to the game that cut down on the time games took to play but overall he was more of a manager, or CEO of sorts, of a business managing the portfolios of 30 billionaires than he was ever  a steward of the game as a sport. And at from that perspective he was an  outstanding and unparalleled success.   

3) And staying on topic of the MLB commissioner…

Various candidates have already been floated around by some of the online sports sites for Manfred’s replacement, however if you had the final say in the decision…

Who would be your choice to be the next commissioner of MLB? Why?

While we’re still four years away from a true search, with true candidates emerging, we can definitely speculate and make a way-too-early prediction on who will be chosen for the next MLB commissioner. So it’ll likely be the person we like the best, or think should be the next commissioner, regardless of any thought process done by the selection committee. This will certainly change year-by-year or even month-by-month as different life circumstances happen, new people emerge, people drop out or retire or change career paths, etc. There’s been insiders who have said it won’t be anyone even in the commissioner’s office currently. Some think that it might be someone from outside of baseball. We’ll have no idea until the time comes closer, especially with a potential lockout looming after the 2026 MLB season, or with the changing landscape of owners, including Manfred’s interest in adding at least one or two expansion franchises before he steps down from his coveted role.

I think Noah Garden, who’s the deputy commissioner for business and media, could definitely be a top choice if he changes around the TV structure and improves it considerably. With the regional broadcast networks having a lot of problems, teams not getting fair viewership on national games, TV rights deals needing to be renegotiated and Bally facing a lot of problems internally, I think it’ll determine how well he changes the media rights for teams and national coverage for baseball. If he does an outstanding job, including migrating to different streaming services in the changing TV landscape, then I think he could be a great candidate. But it’s completely uncertain.

And my choice is going to be the guy in the position Manfred held while Bud Selig was still commissioner. That guy’s name is Dan Halem. He’s deputy commissioner for baseball administration currently, and he’s MLB’s chief legal officer. He’s the lead labor negotiator for the league and oversees pretty much everything baseball. He has the most knowledge and communication between the league’s inner-workings as well as constant communication with the owners around the league. I think he’s the most logical and realistic candidate, at this stage in prediction, for the next MLB commissioner role. 

My personal choice would a guy that many people would consider of being a real baseball type of person. He has been a man who was involved with the building of teams that were basically floundering around being so-so baseball franchises and then taking them to heights unknown and being World Series champs. That guy is Theo Epstein who took the Red Sox and Cubs from being year to year perennial after thoughts and changing them into winning franchises that also improved ownerships profit margins immensely.  He knows the MLB from the point of view of the business aspect as well as the point of view of having a watchable product on the field. I’d take him as a commissioner who would serve the interests of the owners while also serving the interests of the fans and the players… he’d be a true commissioner of the game. 

4) As Spring Training opens and teams begin preparing for the upcoming  season which franchise is your pre-season pick as the team to beat in the AL? Which AL ballclub is the best team as of right now? Why?

The best American League ballclub right now has to be the Baltimore Orioles.

They have a very young core of excellent players on the offensive side of the ball and boasts one of the best defenses across baseball. They just acquired Corbin Burnes to add to their very good rotation, and having Burnes pitch outside of hitter-friendly American Family Field will really lower his ERA/WHIP numbers. He also is a big strikeout guy, and with a team that’s going to give him consistent run support and defensive support behind him is only going to play to his benefit. They have a closer for the year while Bautista rehabs from his long-term recovery from the injury he suffered late last season. Grayson Rodriguez is a pitcher who stands out on their roster as well, who had a terrible 7.35 ERA in ten first-half starts. He allowed 13 home runs and 21 walks. In the second half, he was stellar, posting a 2.35 ERA with only 21 walks in 13 games including allowing only three earned runs and a significant increase in strikeouts. First half WHIP of 1.743 compared to a second half WHIP of 1.096. They also have Kyle Bradish who was great last season, John Means is another player who’s very impressive and Dean Kramer was excellent in 2022, but regressed a tad during the 2023 season, but should rebound very nicely next year. 

I’m going with the Texas Rangers in the AL.

They will run it back with essentially the same team offense they had last year that led the AL in runs scored (881), hits (1470, HRs (233), batting average (.263), OBP (.337), slugging (.452), OPS (.790) and total bases (2531).

Their pitching wasn’t too shabby either last ye4ar and to start off the season they will bring back Nathan Eovaldi and Dane Dunning and then around mid-seson have Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom returning to round out and improve the overall rotation. Then assuming they resign Jordan Montgomery they should have a top pitching rotation to go along with what should be the top AL offense.

5) And…

Which franchise is your pre-season pick as the team to beat in the NL? Which NL ballclub is the best team as of right now? Why?

The best National League ball club might surprise some people. While I think the Dodger offense is one of the most dangerous and best offenses in the MLB, the injury restriction for Shohei Ohtani this season in not allowing him to pitch, including multiple injuries to the staff with Kershaw also gone for the first half of the season, it limits the full capability of the Dodgers. While it’s going to be a shootout between the two clubs come playoffs, I think the Atlanta Braves are the team to beat and best team in the National League.

They return the best hitter in baseball, who’s a leader in not only batting average, but in runs, home runs, stolen bases and just overall leadership including in the outfield on defense. They have Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies as supporting cast players who would be leaders on most other ballclubs. They have an incredible pitching staff, including a very solid bullpen. They have Mr. Strikeout in Spencer Strider who could push for 300 this season. This team put up 41 more runs than the Dodgers, who were second, last season. Most home runs by any team by a staggering 58. Lead all MLB in batting average and hits. They had 104 wins last season, three more than the Baltimore Orioles who had 101 and led the American League. They were 25th in team strikeouts on offense and tenth in stolen bases. They can do it all, and their offense is extremely strong. They’re the team to beat once again this season. 

The Atlanta Braves were an offensive juggernaut in 2023 as they led the majors in runs (947), hits (1543), all-time record HRs (307), batting average (.276), OBP (.344), slugging (.501), OPS (.845) and total bases (2803. Led by record setting NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr along with several other stars such as slugger Matt Olson, plus payers like Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies they should, if not equal last year’s numbers, come damn near close to replicating those numbers.

Then in the off-season they reinforced their bullpen with various addictions and then traded for Chris Sale who can be the missing piece in the Braves rotation if he avoids the injury setbacks he has had through his career. Still even if he doesn’t they have a rotation led by Spencer Strider that should be more than enough to challenge and surpass the Dodgers for the NL pennant in 2024.

Extra Innings…