The questions and discussion…
1) On Tuesday (11/26) news broke that the Los Angeles Dodgers had come to an agreement on a five-year, $182 million deal with starting pitcher Blake Snell.
What is your analysis of this deal? Why?
Dan
Blake Snell
I think this is a great signing. The one weakness, if the Dodgers had a weakness, was their starting pitching. Adding to that and getting another Cy Young-caliber starter just makes this team that much more dangerous. They not only are going to be getting Shohei Ohtani back on the mound for next season, but now have Blake Snell & Yamamoto as second and third in the rotation. They still have room to sign more players, and they can continue adding pitching while the market is still very young and fresh. I think this was a good deal, sets a market rate and gets a player signed immediately who is dominant and can get a lot of help from staying in familiar territory (west coast) as well as having a dangerous offense bringing him run support.
Great signing, in my eyes.
Joe
Snell is entering his age-32 season and while there is always a big risk with free agent pitchers of any age (especially at the bucks being discussed) the Dodgers have a need in their rotation due to the free agency of pitchers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler and Snell is an upgrade over each of those players.
He has a four-pitch arsenal that includes a 96 mph four-seamer, a fantastic curveball (batters hit .111 off it in 2024 with a ridiculous 50% swing-and-miss rate), and an excellent slider and what has been called a plus changeup (one home run off it last season).
The issue (or issues) with Snell is that he tends to be very, very good… Cy Youngs in 2028 and 2023… or he is plagued with nagging, minor injuries and he struggles to stay on the mound or be effective.
Bottom line is that this deal for the Dodgers is one of potentially very high risk but if Snell happens to have one of his Cy Young years… some very, very high rewards.
And…
2) What impact does the Snell signing have on veteran starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler both of whom started playoff games for the Dodgers and are now also free agents? Do the Dodgers circle back and sign one, or maybe even both, pitchers? Or do the Dodgers let them both walk? Why?
Dan
Jack Flaherty
I think it has a minor impact on getting Jack Flaherty or Walker Buehler staying with the Dodgers. I don’t believe that they will retain either pitcher for this next season, however, I don’t put it past them to retain Buehler as a familiar face in their rotation.
However, I think they have other financial priorities, like Juan Soto, that they want to go after before they begin to start bolstering up their starting rotation. Plus, I think Walker Buehler is looking for a bigger contract and moving on to another team. And Jack Flaherty enjoyed a lot of success but for the most part was viewed more as a half-season rental last season by the Dodgers. So, I think Flaherty will capitalize on his overall very successful 2024 season with a rewarding contract just with another team; not with the Dodgers.
Joe
Walker Buehler
I don’t count the Dodgers out on any payer available either through trade or free agency. Essentially if the Dodgers want a certain player; they believe he fits their team’s overall needs, the Dodgers front office/ownership will conduct a full court press to be among the highest bidders (if not the highest bidder) for that player’s services either by giving up prospects and or cash and years of contract length.
Also I believe most franchises front offices take stock in two of the game’s oldest aphorisms… “Good pitching beats good hitting,” and “You can never have too much pitching.”
Flaherty, by the numbers and without a doubt, had the better 2024 season of the two free agents as he went a combined 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 194 strikeouts in 162 innings with the Tigers and Dodgers. Buehler, who was coming back from TJ surgery, went a not so overwhelming 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP but i the postseason for the Dodgers as he closed the playoffs with 13 straight scoreless innings.
So considering the above, I do believe the Dodgers will perform their due diligence and touch base with both of the veteran free agents.
But as far as Beuhler goes unless he takes a very team friendly deal… a deep discount to his asking price in a possible quest to remain a member of the so to be defending World Champion Dodgers… he’s a “gone guy” from the team’s 40-man roster…. i.e. the Dodgers let him walk.
Flaherty’s negotiations probably go a little longer and deeper due to the second of the old maxims from above… “You can never have too much pitching” … but considering the team’s other probable and most important player needs… two corner outfielders and a shortstop… and the likelihood of being in on Juan Soto… and considering there are other arguably better starters out there (Max Fried and Corbin Burnes) to spend their big bucks on… I see the Dodgers letting him walk, too.
And finally…
3) How does the Dodgers signing Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million and then giving super-utility player, and this year’s NLCS MVP, Tommy Edman a five-year, $74 million extension effect their pursuit of Juan Soto to join their All-Star cast in LA? Why?
Dan
Juan Soto
I don’t think either the Blake Snell signing or the extension that was given to Tommy Edman as a reward for his fantastic playoff success will impact the Dodgers going after Juan Soto. They want him to make their offense unstoppable. They have the money to put towards it, especially with them giving Ohtani a heavy deferred contract which, I believe, they will offer Juan Soto as more of a motivating factor to sign with them. I think the Dodgers had their eyes set on him since mid-season, and only accentuated their want and desire facing him in the World Series. The Dodgers have unlimited funds. Winning the World Series only added. Having Ohtani and Yamamoto only added to that. Ohtani is a cash cow for not only direct ticket sales, but also marketing and merchandise sales. Having Ohtani on the Dodgers gives them unlimited cash flow. They can continually pay the luxury tax with no concern because the income generated from Ohtani alone can more than cover that expense. The Dodgers are still going to be a top candidate in the Juan Soto sweepstakes.
Joe
Okay starts wits the financials… Snell gets a 5-year $182 million that is paid as follows… a $52 million signing bonus along with $13 million per season in deferrals over five years with the balance paid out as yearly salary. The signing bonus is spread out across the five years of his contract in the Dodgers’ books for CBT purposes. Through the signing bonus and deferrals and everything, the average of $182 million over five years ($36.4 million) does shrink a little bit to $32 million and change for the CBT.
Similarly, Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million deal would obviously be $70 million per season but through deferrals his CBT figure is $46,076,768.
Obviously the Dodgers front office is well versed in some creative accounting practices which works out extremely well for the team’s roster.
Add in that the Dodgers are one of the richest teams in MLB and have access to some of the biggest revenues in the game through avenues such as ticket sales and game day food, drink and souvenir sales, other various merchandising and media rights sales and from those revenues they reinvest 67% of those funds on player payroll… which is MLB to the Mets who spend 102% of their revenues. Right now according to CBSSports.com… “As things stand right now, sure, the competitive balance figure it over $300 million, so the Dodgers will be taxed (meaning they’ll cut checks to a bunch of those teams crying poor). But the actual payroll for 2025 right now sits in the ballpark of $260 million due to signing bonuses and deferrals mentioned above.”
Meaning that with their tendency to be creative with their accounting methods and their present payroll rank that if the Dodgers want to pursue Juan Soto and be among the top bidders they damn well still can.
4) Among the rumors being bandied about on various internet sports sites is that the St. Louis Cardinals are looking to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado so long as he likes the destination enough to waive his no-trade clause.
Do the Cardinals trade Arenado this offseason? Why or why not?
And if an Arenado trade is actually consummated to which team do you see him landing? Why?
Dan
Nolan Arenado
I think the Cardinals are going to trade Nolan Arenado this off-season. After having two seasons that were relatively disappointing and missing the postseason, the Cardinals are looking to revamp their roster and change their course. The Cardinals not only want to win now, but they want to improve for their future as well. Arenado hasn’t lived up to what he was doing in Colorado for St. Louis, and I think this is the right time to move him.
If I had to throw a team out there that would be Arenado’s landing spot, I would say the San Diego Padres are at the top of the list. Not only do they need to attempt to keep up with the Los Angeles Dodgers and bolster their infield. They have pieces that they can move around. Arenado can play first base, or he can play second. I think they could easily have him play first base, and they can move Arraez into the designated hitter spot as he’s not a great defender but will reliably contribute a .300+ batting average and very low strikeout totals.
Joe
Arenado, who is arguably the team’s best player, is the Cardinals most obvious and best trade chip that would achieve clearing out salary to bring some decent prospects and/or younger and more “affordable” players to begin a rebuild into being a perennial contender once again in MLB.
He does have three seasons remaining on an eight-year, $260 million deal but will make a more modest $52 million over the next three campaigns so it’s very likely if the Cardinals do find a trade partner they would have to eat some of that salary. Still if a team is hoping to contend in 2025 and they have a need of an infielder who can slot in to the middle of the batting order, then they lineup could use him.
Arenado has a no-trade clause and three years remaining on his current contract so he would need to waive the clause for the Cardinals to trade him but that is said not to be a sticking point as long as the team he would be traded to was a true contender for the playoffs and had a real shot a being in the World Series.
Also it has been leaked that the eight-time All-Star (who says he is going to work this offseason at regaining his batting stroke for 2025 after batting .272 with 16 home runs and 71 RBI last season) is said to be willing to switch to first base or “at least” spend less time at third base in order to appeal to possible trade partners. That infield flexibility would make him a more appealing trade option, as could his still steady contributions on defense…. After he missed out on being named a Gold Glove Awards finalist in 2023 (for the first time in 11 seasons) he made it back on the list in 2024.
Whew.. got all that? Good.
Now… Arenado still has a decent and better than average glove and isn’t exactly a slouch offensively and given his desire to play for a perennial playoff contender, there isn’t a perfect fit for Arenado, but the best home could be the Boston Red Sox.
Arenado is presumably worth a top-100 prospect and if the Cardinals are willing to foot the bill on some of his salary then the Sox have the prospects to deal. All in all the Sox would add a player that would help the Sox create a better and more formidable line-up and would arguably be starting pitcher or two away from being a strong contender once again in the AL Est and a yearly playoff participant.
5) You’re a GM of a team that needs a first baseman…
Which free agent do you sign… Pete Alonso or Christian Walker? Why?
Dan
Pete Alonso
Give me Pete Alonso. He’s going to represent my team at the Home Run Derby, and possibly win, almost every year. Not only will that bring more marketing to my team but will have some encouragement for people to attend games and see a home run monster game in and game out. He’s one of the fan favorites in New York right now, so I would welcome a fan-friendly player to the clubhouse. I’m also very big on having at least one monster home run hitter, who can smack one 500 feet at any given at-bat in the lineup. He’s going to draw a lot of walks just for his power danger, and they could even take the loss and allow a run to score in order to ensure he doesn’t hit a grand slam. Give me Pete Alonso and his power.
Joe
Christian Walker
In the last two seasons, Walker has is arguably the better player when comparing the performances according to FanGraphs data analysis reports… Walker’s statistics include a .254 batting average with a .334, on-base percentage, and .484 slugging percentage, along with 59 home runs, 119 weighted runs created, and a 6.9 WAR while Alonso’s numbers reflect a .229 batting average, a .324 on-base percentage, and a .480 slugging percentage with 80 home runs and a WAR of 4.9 over the same time frame.
Alonso is capable of hitting 40+, or even 50+, home runs regularly, but Walker offers more.. especially as a defender as he has won each of the last three Gold Gloves at first base.
Walker is 33 years old, and Alonso is 29. So in all likelihood a team could sign Walker at fewer years and a lower total money.. three years and $60 mil maybe… while Alonso is likely seeking a deal for double the length and probably double the money at the minimum.
In the end… give me the capable guy on offense with the Gold Glove defense… give me Walker.
Extra Innings…
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