MLBRT 12/19/2024

The questions and discussion…  

1) Using CBSSports.com’s list for this off-season’ top 50 free agents, an interesting fact so far is that as of December 14, only 3 position free agent players have been taken from that list while 10 pitchers, most of whom are starters, have been already signed from that same list.

And, according to December 13 ESPN.com article… “A dozen starting pitchers have signed for a combined $788.5 million through the first five weeks of this offseason… with starters Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander among the roughly 75 other starters still unsigned and available.

Does this current trend regarding free agency and players being signed by MLB teams come as a surprise? Why or why not?

I’m not surprised by this trend of players being signed for big money. The world is turning in a different direction. MLB teams see that the Mets and Dodgers are spending a lot of money to try and win a World Series. The Dodgers succeeded this season. The Mets almost made it. The Yankees, usually big spenders, worked their way to the World Series. Teams need to spend money to compete.

And players see how much revenue teams are generating each season, and they want a piece of the pie as well, especially with inflation going up. The more money teams dole out to players, the more money they’ve been making. I’m not shocked to see a lot of quality players go for big money.

Teams are going to pay for quality, and that’s what we have been seeing. Especially when it comes to pitching, that’s an extremely valuable position. With the way baseball is turning, having a reliable staff, filled out deep, including a solid, reliable bullpen, is going to be the difference maker when you reach the postseason. It’s also going to be something that a team can use to carry them to the postseason, being able to withstand heavy offensive squads they face in limiting runs.

I expect to see more big money contracts get doled out before we hit mid-January. 

“You can never have too much pitching…” is an old adage that has been  heard throughout baseball for as long as I  can remember. And prior to this free agency season Yankees’ principal owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman both echoed those, or very similar, words so I am not surprised that after the Yanks lost out in the Juan Soto sweepstakes that the team’s first order of business was to pivot to signing a top free agent starter and likewise nor am I surprised to see that out of the top free agents going off the board at this stage of free agency are tending to be starters.

The money being handed out is a little startling, especially for starters who can so often be the most fragile out of all the positions on the field at times what with their preponderance of arm injuries, but that money being given out to starters… players who can go a minimum of five to six innings per start and appear in at least 30 starts a season… is also due to how hard it is for teams to find top level starters in MLB… so no it’s not a big surprise to see the Yankees sign Fried to an eight-year/$218 million deal, or the Dodgers jump to getting Snell early on in free agency, for five years/$182 million or the Rangers resign Nathan Eovaldi for three-years/$75 million contract.  

It’s basically supply and demand… the scarcity of top level starters and who is available… for why and what is driving the cost of pitching in MLB.

It’s why most MLB’s teams are rumored to be in on the “very affordable” Japanese sensation  23-year-old Roki Sasaki (because he’s only 23, Sasaki is limited to signing a contract that does not exceed a team’s MLB-allotted bonus pool, which currently tops out at around $7.5 million)… it’s also why the  Red Sox made the trade for Garrett Crochet (won’t be a free agent until 2027 and is expected to make what will be seen as a very affordable $3 million or so through arbitration for 2025)… and why the Mets signed long time reliever Clay Holmes to a three-year/$38 million contract with the intention of changing him over to being a starter.  

2) On Friday (12/13) the Houston Astros traded three-time All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs for third baseman Isaac Paredes, right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesnecki and third-base prospect Cam Smith. 

What is your opinion regarding this transaction? Why? 

This move was a little shocking to me, as he was part of the Houston Astros’ core. 

However, this is a great addition to Chicago’s offense, as Kyle Tucker has been one of the best players in baseball over the last three seasons… his 19.1 fWAR ranks 13th among current players from 2021-2024, despite playing fewer games than the players above him due to injury. He hit 30 home runs in both 2021 and 2022, with 29 coming in 2023. He had a 180 wRC+ in 2024, with 23 home runs despite playing only 78 games due to a fractured shin suffered earlier in the season. But the Astros needed to cut some payroll as they weren’t going to be willing, or able, to keep Tucker past this season as he was due for a huge payday.

The Cubs have the money to pay him when the time comes, and the Astros were able to get a replacement in Isaac Paredes from the Cubs who has hit 70 home runs and posted a 123 wRC+ over the last three seasons. He’s projected to make $6.9 mil in arbitration and is under team control for two more seasons after 2025, which makes him a valuable asset to the Astros in a cost-cutting measure.

Hayden Wesneski, one of the other players headed to Houston just needs to keep the ball in the park, but if he can get that under control he’ll be a reliable pitcher for Houston for the near future as he’s under team control for the next five seasons.

The other player, Cam Smith, is a nice prospect with a lot of potential to eventually play third base. He played 32 games in his professional debut after getting drafted this summer, and has already reached Double-A. He’ll push Paredes in the next couple of years across the diamond to first base when his time comes.  

Tucker is not Soto but he’s probably on the next level or close to that level.

He’s a line drive hitter who will hit around .275 and has the potential to be a 30 HR/30 SB player most every year he plays a full season. In his six years with Houston he has performed well enough to earn a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger and was for three years running… 2021, 22, 23… was mentioned as an AL MVP candidate and was an All-Star for the third year in a row in 2024.  

He’s good. And this is a good move by the Cubs. All in all when Tucker is officially announced as joining the Cubs he will instantly become the Cubs best player.

As for the Astros… this is just another step closer to them being in complete team rebuild. In short with the Astros getting Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith, who both play third as their primary position, essentially says the Astros aren’t resigning Alex Bregman back from free agency and that he is a gone guy from the team.

Paredes is so-so with the bat but has hit as many as 30  HRs in MLB back when he was with Tampa and that power stroke might play well in the Astros home park.

Smith however  is highly touted prospect who in his pro career has opened eyes with his bat and his glove. CBSSports.com’ R.J. Anderson goes as far to say that “he could — emphasis on could — reach the majors during the 2025 campaign.” And to me it sure seems like that’s the Astros’ plan for their near future infield… play Paredes for now and when Smith is ready to move up to the majors, move Paredes over to second… he’s played all over the infield in his short four-year major league career but mostly has experience at third and second with a smattering of games at first, including 17 in 2024.

Hayden Wesneski is pitching depth, either as a fourth or fifth starter or from the bullpen, he’s done both on the major league level and as noted above… Can’t have too much pitching.

3) The highly regarded 25-year old pitcher Garrett Crochet, who made the AL All-Star team in his first season as a starter, was acquired by the Boston Red Sox at the winter meetings from the Chicago White Sox for catcher Kyle Teel, infielder Chase Meidroth, right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez and outfielder Braden Montgomery.

Crochet is eligible for arbitration this offseason and as well next seson and unless he signs a long-term deal with the Red Sox he  can become a free agent after the 2026 World Series.

What is your opinion regarding this deal and its implications for both teams? Why?

I think this is going to be a great deal for the Boston Red Sox. They get a very high quality starting pitcher from a team that needs to retool all the way around after posting the most losses in one season in MLB history. Crochet posted a 2.69 FIP with a 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+) last season as the lone bright spot for the Chicago White Sox and the Red Sox are going to get an easy improvement to their starting rotation.

They’re also planning on offering a contract to Corbin Burnes, so having those two as a one-two punch should propel the Red Sox into a competitive nature in the tough AL East.

Crochet is a left-handed pitcher with high velocity and tight command, which is always a dangerous combination and a very valuable tool for a starting pitcher as teams often struggle against lefties compared to righties. This is going to definitely help the Red Sox immediately, while the White Sox can get some valuable prospects to add to their minors and develop them in their complete retool job after such a disappointing season in south Chicago. 

Considering that he played for a team that just set a record for most losses in a single season the 23-year old Crochet had a darn good year… he appeared in 32 games, fanned 209 in 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP… for his relatively short career, his ERA is 3.29 and his WHIP is 1.16 with 294 strikeouts in 219 innings pitched.

Simply put, this was a good deal for both teams…

Boston got a young, rising star starting pitcher who won’t be a free agent until 2027 and is expected to make a very affordable $3 million or so through arbitration for 2025 and then will have the added bonus of the next couple of years to see just how good Crochet really is and then if it all looks good begin negotiations to see if they can extend Crochet long term at a reasonable salary before he hits free agency.

The White Sox who need all the help they can to just to begin to start a rebuild got…

Catcher Kyle Teel, who was rated No. 25 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects list and is the 4^th best prospect in Boston’s system, outfielder Braden Montgomery (No. 54 overall prospect), infielder Chase Meidroth (Boston’s No. 11 prospect) and right-handed pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez (Boston’s No. 14 prospect).

4) As MLB’s winter meetings is coming to a close…

What was your favorite move by any team’s front office of this yearly gathering of MLB’s franchises? Why?

And…

What one move had you scratching your head? Why?

My favorite move, sadly, is the move by the Cubs in acquiring Kyle Tucker. I think that’s a huge addition to their offense after a very disappointing season in 2024 in which the team had high hopes with a new manager and a new future ace of their rotation. The Cubs not only were disappointing, but completely let the season slip away in which they should’ve easily been able to stay competitive throughout the course of 2024. Getting Kyle Tucker is going to completely bolster up their offense, as long as he’s healthy, and it will give some support to the current players they have around him, including Seiya Suzuki at the plate.

They also didn’t have to give up a whole lot of future prospects, mainly giving up an unknown, 2024 draft pick (who has a lot of great potential), a pitcher who has been prone to giving up home runs, and a player who has been average on defense, but somewhat reliable at the plate and still under team control. So far, this move really impressed me by Chicago. 

The head-scratching move, which didn’t surprise me, was the Devin Williams trade the Brewers conducted. While I knew the Brewers couldn’t keep Devin Williams around after this season, and weren’t going to let him go to free agency and get nothing but a compensatory pick in return, the Brewers off-loaded him to the New York Yankees for a prospect and Nestor Cortes. While Cortes isn’t fully healthy, he’s going to be a one-year rental for the Brewers as he’s likely, pending a solid season, going to request a hefty contract next off-season. The Brewers didn’t get as much back as I would have hoped and was expecting they get a return of some more prospects to deepen their minor leagues. Giving up the best closer in baseball deserves a hefty return, and I think the Brewers underachieved in that regard, that left me scratching my head on why get a one-year rental of a starter, plus only one minor league prospect? As a small market club, you should be always focused on building up the pipeline, having a steady stream of new prospects ready for Major League action a moment’s notice. 

From the perspective of this Yankees fan, the best “move” was actually a series of moves that occurred in the aftermath of the Yankees losing out on the Soto Sweepstakes and then pivoting to signing starting pitcher Max Fried as a free agent and then trading for closer Devin Williams from the Brewers and Corey Bellinger from the Cubs. The pitching, which was a Yankee strength, was considerably enhanced and strengthened and they got a center fielder/first baseman who provides Gold Glove level defense and is a lefty pull hitter who should fare well in Yankee Stadium with its so-called short right field porch.

As for the head scratcher…

Only time will tell if this was really the headscratcher I believe it is now… but…

To me, the Mets inking Clay Holmes, the Yankees relief pitcher and former closer to a  three-year $38 million deal but with the intention to transform him from being a relief pitcher to a starting role in their rotation.

I just don’t see that happening.  

5) On December 10th it was announced that former outfielder and nine-time All-Star Rocco “Rocky” Colavito, had passed away at 91-years of age.  history, had died. He was 91. 

Among Colavito’s accomplishments during his 14-year career are… 374 career homers, 3-time top five finisher in MVP voting, one of only 18 MLB players to have ever hit four HRs in a game (1959 with Cleveland) and he shares the MLB record for highest fielding percentage by an outfielder in a season (1.000). 

While Colavito obviously never received the require 75% of the voting from the Baseball Writers to be elected into the Hall of Fame… still… 

Was Colavito a Hall of Fame level player who should be reconsidered for enshrinement in the Hall by the Baseball Hall of Fame’s Era Committee (formerly known as the Veterans Committee)that considers retired Major League players no longer eligible for election by the Baseball Writers’ Association whose greatest contributions to the game were realized either prior to 1980 or after 1980? Why or why not?

No, I don’t think Rocky Colavito is a Hall of Famer. An average Hall of Fame right fielder had a WAR/162 of 5.0, which Rocky finished below at 3.9. An average Hall of Fame right fielder had an overall career WAR of 70, where Rocky finished below at 44.5 Rocky also didn’t really impress at a Hall of Fame level over the course of his career, only having six seasons of All-Star games (three seasons has him listed as two-time All-Stars – 1959, 1961, 1962). He hit 374 home runs, .266 career batting average and 1,730 hits. He didn’t win any MVP awards, Gold Gloves, or even any Silver Sluggers. He was a very good player, but he falls short of the Hall of Fame standard in my book. Yes, he did finish in the top-five of MVP voting three times, but never higher than third and has no extra accolades and doesn’t have any awards to show for his All-Star game appearances. He led the league in grounded-into-double-plays once, slugging percentage once and games played once. Very good play, just not Hall of Fame worthy. 

During my baseball card collecting days of my youth Rocky Colavito was one of the players that I admired as a player.  For the most part he was out shined by other players from his era but from 1958 through 1965… eight straight years… he was a guy who was usually among the top ten to top five players in many offensive stats; could hit 30 to 40 HRs, drive in 100-plus, he topped of at 140 in 1961 but guess who else had good years then, just a couple of guys called Maris and Mantle.  

But in the end… Rocky was a star player in a star filled era… just not a Hall of Fame player.

Extra Innings…