MLBRT 11/28/2024

This week’s questions…  

1) Statistically the story on Carlos Beltrán and his having a plaque in the Baseball Hall of Fame is for all intents and purposes a pretty open-and-shut case, if not a slam dunk for any non-Ped associated player to be elected their first time on the Baseball Writers ballot. However Beltran’s close connection and heavy involvement in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal seems to be what has so far kept him out of the Hall and sees him on the ballot for his third time… he opened at 46.5% and got 57.1% in his second try last year.  

Will time and/or the changing voting body help? And will this, his third time on the ballot be the charm that convinces enough writers to “forgive him for cheating” and give him the necessary 75% to be selected for Baseball Hall of Fame? Why or why not?

While voting and changing voting body might help Carlos Beltrán garner enough votes to get into the Hall of Fame, I don’t think that he’s deserving until we start putting in Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Roger Clemens, among others. While we hold players accountable for being involved in the steroid era and participating in cheating in the sport, we should also hold Carlos Beltrán accountable for being the mastermind and ring leader in the Houston Astros’ dugout among their trash can, sign-stealing scandal that impacted the sport dearly. While it isn’t steroids, it’s still cheating. It gave the Astros an unfair competitive advantage in big-time games including the postseason.

I don’t think Carlos Beltrán is going to get into the Hall of Fame this time around. And I don’t think he’ll get in on the fourth go-around, either. If you’re going to hold certain players to one standard of cheating and not getting elected to the Hall of Fame, you need to have those same standards for Carlos Beltrán and the trash can sign-stealing cheating conducted as a member of the Houston Astros’ organization. 

By the numbers Carlos Beltrán had a Hall of Fame caliber career, and possibly as a first ballot selectee into the Hall. However…

The Houston Astro 2017-2018 sign stealing/cheating scandal happened.

Beltrán has been identified as one of the so-called brains, if not the brains, behind the Astros’ trash can, sign-stealing scheme as well as one of the main participants in carrying it out during games. And so far the voters have denied Beltrán entry into the Hall due to his involvement in the entire scandal affair… rightfully so in my opinion.

Beltrán’s involvement in the cheating scandal is no less a crime against the game than the Black Sox scandal of 1919 was back then. No gambling wasn’t involved as it was in the 1919 scandal but still cheating to affect the outcome of games (for whatever purpose) is just that cheating and is wrong on every single possible level that can be thought about.

While I don’t think Beltrán deserves the same fate as the 1919 scandal participants… permanently banned from the game (and he isn’t)… but I do think it’s the right, and fair, thing for the voters to do in refusing to include him on their Hall of Fame ballots.  

2) You are the GM of a MLB franchise that needs starting pitching, however the currently top two ranked free agents… Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki… are off the board already.

Which free agent starting pitcher do you pivot to and target to sign for your team? Why?  

If Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki are off the board and I’m in desperate need of a starting pitcher, give me Max Fried.

He’s the owner of a 3.07 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 140 ERA+ and 863 strikeouts in his career. During the shortened-COVID season, he went a perfect 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA. In 2022 he had a 2.48 ERA, in 2023, a shortened, injury-filled season, he had a 2.55 ERA.

Give me a reliable starter who is one of the best in the game who is just entering his prime. He’s only 30-years-old. He’s a reliable pitcher (outside of 2023). He had two complete games and a shutout last season. Give me a reliable pitcher who is one of the best in the game. 

I would do exactly what the Dodgers just did… sign Blake Snell to a multimillion dollar, multiyear contract.

His arsenal includes a 96 mph four-seamer, a great curve (batters hit .111 off it in 2024), what has been called a “wipeout slider” and a  above average changeup (one home run i allowed in 2024). .. add in that his 11.2 career K’s per nine leads all active starting pitchers.

Yes, he comes with risks and at times can go through some frustratingly bad periods but when he is on can ,and often does, takes it to another levee entirely.

In 2024 he went 5-3 and a 3.12 ERA overall, but after he started off slow and looking out of sorts, then dealt with an injury, in his last 14 games of the season Snell went 5-0, 1.23 ERA, .123 average allowed, 114 SO in 80⅓ IP.

Or consider his time in San Diego when he was  simply dominant… in 2023 he had a 22 game span where he went 13-3, 1.18 ERA, .154 average, 180 SO in 130 IP.

Those times far outweigh any of the his sometimes “bad times” when he can be overly wild or have one of his various minor injuries he has suffered through his career.  

And oh yes he has two Cy Youngs to his credit and is always a threat to add another.

Snell is my guy.  

3) The Houston Astros long time third baseman Alex Bregman is a free agent this off-season. Recently Scott Boras, his agent, told the media that although Bregman primarily has been a third baseman for his MLB career, he has experience playing shortstop and is willing to move to second base dependent on the team and contract terms involved.  

Where does Bregman ultimately wind up playing for the 2025 season and beyond?  Why?

I think the two best landing spots are the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox for Alex Bregman. However, I believe the Phillies will also make a run at him. Detroit does have to give up their best draft pick in order to sign Alex Bregman as he declined his qualifying offer from Houston. The Red Sox only have to give up their second-best draft pick, but also $500,000 in international signing pool allotment.

The Tigers have a strong link with AJ Hinch as their manager, who use to work with the Astros. That’s a strong point for Alex Bregman in his search for a destination to land with. The Red Sox, who have stated that they want to be aggressive this off-season but need a starting pitcher, will definitely push after Alex Bregman and move around some of their infield to accommodate Bregman. I think the Red Sox are going to be the ones to land him.

The Astros are currently $44million away from Bregman’s asking price, and the Red Sox are a team that has expendable income to spend money on big-time free agents. The Red Sox are sick of not competing for the top spot in the AL East. They want to go back to the top. They’re in the hunt for Juan Soto. Once Soto lands, Bregman will be one of the next to go and he’s going to Boston. 

The stuff I have seen online is strongly suggesting that the top two for Bregman’s services  are the Tigers and the Red Sox and I’m leaning for the Tigers ultimately to wind up signing him.

The Tigers made a run to the ALDS in 2024 and want to keep it going forward for a return to the playoffs in 2025 and happen to have not a lot of money wrapped up in player contracts and therefore available to spend.  Add in that  forward. Plus, Bregman’s former manager with Houston (2015 through 2019) A.J. Hinch is the Tigers’ manager now. 

Add it all up and Bregman signs with Detroit.

4) From 2012 to 2018, Chris Sale, first with the White Sox and then after  a trade with the Red Sox, was one of the best starting pitchers in the majors, receiving Cy Young votes each season. The prevailing thinking at that time was that Sale looked like a future Hall of Famer.

Then, a series of injuries over the next five season (a sore elbow cut his 2019 season short; TJ surgery in early 2020 wiped out nearly two full seasons. Then in 2022, he made only two starts because of a stress fracture in his rib, a broken finger and then a broken wrist suffered while riding his bike. In 2023, a stress reaction in his scapula put him on the 60-day injured list ) seemed to sidetrack his career as well as derail his predicted HOF path.

Frustrated with Sale’s multiple trips to the IL and wanting to cut salary the Red Sox traded Sale to the Braves.

In 2024 Sale outperformed all expectations and simply went 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 225 strikeouts while winning the pitching Triple Crown by leading the NL in wins, ERA and strikeouts… and… won the NL Cy Young award.

Did Sale’s 2024 season restart his HOF career track? Is Sale a future Hall of Famer? Why or why not?

All of the Hall of Fame measurements on Baseball-Reference show that Chris Sale is still short of a Hall of Fame pitcher. The only statistic that has him Hall of Fame-worthy is WAR/162, which is a full point above the Hall of Fame measurement (4.5 for Hall of Fame, 5.5 for Chris Sale). I think that he’s just one more very good year away and maintaining some consistency towards the end of his career, from making the Hall of Fame.

He has one Cy Young Award and was a top-five finisher six times including one top ten finish in the MVP race. He is the career owner of a 3.04 ERA, 140 ERA+ and has posted 2414 strikeouts throughout his career. I think that’s a very good setting for a Hall of Fame career. Once he hits the 3,000 strikeout mark, he’ll be a lock for the Hall of Fame. I don’t think he gets in on the first ballot if he retired today, but I believe he’d get in around the fourth or fifth appearance on the ballot, and deservedly so. 

As decent as his life-time MLB statistical record is… 138-38(.624), 3.04 ERA, 1,04 WHIP, 2,404 strikeouts against only 455 walks with a Cy Young, Gold Glove and 8 All-Star selections… it isn’t yet Hall of Fame worthy. And, at age 35 Sale could be facing a race against time and the effects of getting older for a MLB career.

Still, if he gets to 3,000 strikeouts for his career… he might not be a first ballot selectee, but I think that number along with his low ERA and WHIP gets the voters to eventually let him in despite his low win total.  

5) Which team could (or will?) shock the baseball world and scoop in and sweep Juan Soto away from the presumptive front running teams, i.e., Yankees, Mets and Dodgers, for his next contract? Why?  

Right now, and this is my shocking free agent pick, but I think the Royals would be the likeliest team to sweep Juan Soto away from the top market teams. The next in line would be the Boston Red Sox, but I think the Royals are going to shock people and devote a large amount of money to Juan Soto.

Pairing him with Bobby Witt Jr and Salvador Perez would be an incredible offensive trio for Kansas City and would push them ahead of the rest of the AL Central. Nobody would anticipate one of the smallest markets in baseball sweeping away one of the most expensive free agents of the 2024-2025 off-season. Nobody would expect Kansas City to be paying big money to multiple players on their roster. But it would automatically improve Kansas City on offense and give them multiple MVP-type players.

I think it would be a hell of a signing, and start a push of the small market teams to see that they can spend some money and get the top free agents on the board. It would change how small markets approach spending money for winning and back-end potential earnings. 

The Philadelphia Phillies…

The team has an owner how has the big bucks and is willing to spend them…  “We have an obligation. We are accountable to the fans and to the city. If you don’t approach it that way, you shouldn’t be an owner, in my opinion.” (Phillies owner John Middleton) 

They have $80 million in player contractual obligations coming of the books this year and next… $40 mil each.  

And Soto would have plenty of familiar faces in the locker room from his National years… Bryce Harper who teamed with Soto in the Nationals outfield along with shortstop Trea Turner, hitting coach Kevin Long, and special assistant to the general manager Howie Kendrick, each of whom either played with or coached Soto with the Nationals.

Put it together and the Phillies swoop in and snatch Soto away from the other so-called big market teams.   

Extra Innings…