MLBRT 11/21/2024

The questions and discussion…  

1) According to ESPN.com, “The Chiba Lotte Mariners of Japan’s NPB have announced they plan to post 23-year-old starter Roki Sasaki and there’s already a belief the Dodgers will be the favorite to land him. For starters, because Sasaki would be under 25 years old, that limits his bonus to a max of about $7 million… similar to the deal Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels in 2017… which puts the Dodgers in the running even after all the big contracts they signed last offseason. 

Where does Sasaki ultimately sign? Or do the defending champs Dodgers, with an added advantage of having two star Japanese pitchers on their team to act as selling points, swoop in and grab the young and potential ace Sasaki at a what will effectively be a bargain price in today’s market? Why or why not?

Roki Sasaki is going to land with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

They’re the reigning World Series winners. They have Shohei Ohtani. They also have Yoshinobu Yamamoto as one of their top pitchers. Having two players that Sasaki can assimilate too and learn under their wing on adjusting to Major League Baseball is going to be two key bargaining points that Sasaki can definitely use to his advantage. Not only getting to a great team going to play to his advantage and be very intriguing, as well as playing as close to Japan that he can get, having two players he can closely relate to, despite being younger than both, will really help.

I think the Dodgers are going to grab him, and they’ll end up getting him for an absolute steal if he turns out how his numbers and projections are showing. 

The 23-year-old Sasaki is the latest star player to make the move from playing in Japan to playing in the MLB. However the difference with Sasaki compared to most other players compared to most of the other players coming over from Japan Sasaki is comparatively very young  which means he hasn’t played long enough to have the necessary time in NPB. And therefore he’s subject to MLB’s rules governing international amateur free agent which means he’s going to be subject to signing bonus limits and what teams have in their international pools and therefore will be signing for far, far less than he’d get on anything resembling an open market. That being said, all this means that every team in MLB can afford Sasaki. And every team should, and most likely will, be scheduling meets with him and his agent.

Hold this thought…

The present  rumor says tha Sasaki’s preferred destination is LA and the Dodgers. And it makes sense in so many ways due to these facts…  

The Dodgers currently have two star players already on their roster in the two-way player Shohei Ohtani and right handed starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as well as being managed by Dave Roberts who was born in Okinawa and is part Japanese.  And it all contributes to having an in-house Japanese influence on the Dodgers to help with communicating everyday baseball as well as helping to ease his transition to America, MLB and act as mentors to help him learn the tricks to adjusting to a new country, league, team and teammates who happen to essentially be from every culture and/or every baseball playing nation throughout the world.

LA has a large Japanese population living in the city… in fact the highest number of Japanese people living in any city outside of Japan. Is LA.

LA is a major transportation hub and is on the west coast.. making it a relatively easy commute for Sasaki to travel back and forth from his homeland and the States compared to the non-west coast teams that will most likely be in on wooing him to play for their franchises.

And then… remember that thought I told ya’ll to hold onto? It’s time to remember it… if Sasaki were to sign relatively soon guess who has the most money left in their bonus pool to offer Sasaki? Yep, the Dodgers. Right now MLB is nearing the end of the current international signing period, and the Dodgers just happen to have the most bonus money left to spend and therefore to offer to Sasaki. However… and this is a kind a big however… MLB commissioner Rob Manfred recently disclosed that Sasaki isn’t expected to sign until the 2025 signing period begins on Jan. 15 of next year. And at that point the money advantage for the Dodgers disappears and suddenly other teams have more cash in their pools than the Dodgers.

Still… with the other above favorable points to consider…  

Sasaki goes to the new MLB Evil Empire… the Los Angeles Dodgers.

2) In December the National Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the results of the voting by the Baseball Writers for possible new additions into the Hall.

Among the most prominent players on the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot for the first time, include: Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin, Brain McCann, Félix Hernández, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramírez, Troy Tulowitzki and Ben Zobrist.

Who gets in, it anyone, is a first ballot select? Why?

I think there’s only one player who’s up for Hall of Fame nomination this year that gets in on the first ballot, and that’s a Japanese-born player in Ichiro Suzuki.

He was one of the best hitters to ever grace the baseball field and absolutely raked when he was in Seattle. While he wasn’t a power hitter, he recorded multiple seasons over 200 hits (his first ten seasons) including leading the league in seven of those. He won Rookie of the Year and his lone MVP award came in his first season in the majors, along with 242 hits and a ridiculous .350 batting average.

He also has a record-setting 262-hit season in 2004 with a 9.2 BRWAR with an insane .372 batting average.

He also led the league in plate appearances and at-bats in both of those seasons, which shows just how dominant he was at the plate.

He finished his career over 3,000 hits, 500 stolen bases, a .311 batting average and 117 home runs. He won ten Gold Gloves and three Silver Slugger awards. Give him the nod to the Hall of Fame on his first attempt. 

Ichiro Suzuki… 7-time with 200+ hits including 242 in his 2001 rookie year and a MLB record 262 in 2004; 3,089 career hits, 1,420 runs scored.. which is more than similar player in Hall of Famer Toney Gwynn (1,383 runs); .311 lifetime BA, 10 All-Star selections, an MVP and ROY (both came in 2001); 10 Gold Gloves and 3 Silver Sluggers… is a lock to get into the Hall his first time on the ballot. The only question is… does he join Mariano Rivera in becoming a Hall of Famer by unanimous acclimation from the Baseball Writers.  

The only other player who has a shot at making the Hall on the first ballot is CC Sabathia… World Series ring (2009 with the Yankees), a Cy Young Award (2007 with Cleveland), six All-Star selections, 251 wins(tied with Hall of Famer Bob Gibson for  47 all-time) and 3,093 strikeouts which is the third-most ever among lefthanded starters. The case against Sabathia would include his 3.74 career ERA, which would be the third-highest of any Hall of Fame pitcher behind Jack Morris (3.90) and Red Ruffing (3.80).

I think those 3,000 strikeouts could carry the day for him though and while he is nowhere the lock that Ichiro is in being elected first ballot, he does have a shot.  

3) On the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot for his tenth, and final time, is relief pitcher Billy Wagner…

Does Wagner, in his last year of eligibility on the ballot, finally make it into the Hall? Why or why not?

Billy Wagner deserves to get in the Hall of Fame on his final attempt.

He had over 400 saves, a 2.31 ERA with a FIP of 2.73, a 187 ERA+ for his career including over 1,000 strikeouts. He finished 703 games, only had 40 losses and only walked 300 total players. He was a seven-time All-Star and had two top-ten finishes in the Cy Young race, including two top-25 finishes in the MVP balloting as well. He was the 1999 Relief Man of the Year Award winner. Last season, he barely missed the Hall of Fame with 73.4% voting share. He’s going to get the remaining votes required to enter the Hall of Fame this season. 

First, Billy Wagner should have been elected into the Hall years ago already.

Second, his resume says he is a Hall of Famer… 422 saves rank sixth all-time, and are the second-most by a left-handed reliever ever; 1,196 strikeouts, which ranks fourth all-time for relief pitchers and is a record for a left-handed reliever;  2.31 ERA as a reliever is among the best ever among relivers and ranks lower than several  players already in the Hall; 0.998 walks-plus-hits per innings pitched is the second-best all-time among all pitchers; 11.92 strikeouts per nine innings, is the best ever for any pitcher in AL/NL history in those categories; 2.46 career FIP is fifth and he held opposing batters to just a .187 throughout his career.

He got 73.4% last rear; just a couple or few votes short of the needed 75% to get in…

So what’s the holdup Baseball Writers of America… put the guy in, he deserves it.

4) Last season’s MLB’s free agency saw agent Scott Boras have a year (for him) to forget as  three of his arguably best clients had to settle for deals that were decidedly under what was their predicted market value… Blake Snell two years, $62 million (with an opt-out), Cody Bellinger three years, $80 million (with two opt-outs), Jordan Montgomery one year, $25 million.

Will the New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, who is now a free agent for the first time in his career, fall into the same situation and wind up settling for what would be considered an undervalued deal for a premier power (50+ HR potential) hitter? Why or why not?

And where do you see Alonso signing? Why?

Pete Alonso is going to get a very large contract this season, but I don’t think his contract is going to be exactly what he’s looking for. However, I don’t think he’s going to be completely upset as he’s going to end up staying with the Mets, despite them going after Juan Soto and, what appears early, as the leading team for him.

Owner Cohen is a spender and to keep power and offense on the team is going to be a key piece to getting them to the World Series. They came close this season, but they have to bolster up in order to keep up with the Dodgers in the National League. Pete Alonso is the definition of a power hitter and they’re going to keep him. He might take a discount to stay with the Mets, but why give up on him when they were so close to making the World Series last year? Cohen likes to spend money and is open to spending money. Despite having to revamp his entire starting lineup, he also wants to retain his hitters. 

The big guy… 6-foot-3, 245-pound… has power that few others in the game possess (set a rookie record of 53), has made four All-Star teams, hit 226 home runs through his career and is still under 30-years of age.

While his 2024 stats… .240/.329/.459, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 91 runs.. were somewhat off from his usual numbers, for a power hitting first baseman they were more than acceptable. He did, however, come up big in the postseason, hitting four HRs with 10 RBIs and a .999 OPS in 13 games…. including hitting a clutch three-run homer against Devin Williams in the ninth inning of the decisive NL Wild Card Series Game 3 against the Brewers that helped the Mets start on a run all the way to Game 6 of the NLCS. Teams looking to acquire Alonso understand that he provides no great shakes defensively but does provide at least competent coverage at his position. While b not a ringing endorsement but a deal killer either.

Once upon a time… between 2012-16…  first basemen were landing some of the biggest deals in the game and getting contracts worth more than $200 million. Lately that is no longer a reality. Players like Matt Olson and Fredie Freeman who are among the best first basemen n the NL, make $168 million and $162 million respectively. Alson is not even close to being in their neighborhood with the glove but his HR power bat should position him to get a similar dollar deal as was given to those two players.

In the end I say he stays with Mets for what will amount to a 3-year extension worth between $155 to $!65 million.

5) This years Silver Slugger Award winners were…

In the AL: Salvador Perez/Catcher (Royals), Vladimir Guerrero Jr./First Base (Blue Jays), Jose Altuve/Second base (Astros), Jose Ramirez/ Third Base (Guardians), Bobby Witt Jr./Shortstop (Royals), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Jaun Soto (Yankees) and Anthony Santander (Orioles)/Outfielders, Brent Rooker/DH (Athletics) and Josh Smith/Utility Player (Rangers)

In the NL: William Contreras/Catcher (Brewers), Bryce Harper/First Base (Phillies), Ketel Marte/Second base (D’backs),), Manny Machado/Third Base (Padres), Francisco Lindor/Shortstop (Mets), Jackson Merrill (Padre), Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) Jurickson Profar (Padres)/Outfielders,  Brent Rooker/DH (Athletics) and Josh Smith/Utility Player (Rangers) Shohei Ohtani/DH (Dodgers) and Mookie Betts/Utility Player (Dodgers).

Were any of the above selectees chosen over another player who, in your opinion, was more deserving for being voted in as a Silver Slugger Award winner? Why or why not?  

 And if so, at which position and which player? Why?

I think there were two players that can make a strong argument for being on the Silver Slugger list. One was Luis Arraez, who led the league in batting average once again for the Padres. While he didn’t put up numbers like he did with the Twins or the Marlins the past two seasons, he still was very reliable at the plate. He had over 200 hits for his second straight season and batted over .300 for the fifth time in the last six seasons. He went 141 consecutive plate appearances without striking out, coming just shy of Tony Gwynn’s 170 plate appearances without a strikeout in 1995. I would’ve placed him on the Silver Slugger Award list over Mookie Betts, who missed multiple months this season due to injury. 

Another player, in the American League, I believe was snubbed. That was Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros. I would’ve placed him over Brent Rooker. Rooker batted .293/365/.562 while Alvarez posted a slash line of .308/.392/.567 with an OPS+ of 172, which bested Rooker by seven points. Rooker had 67 extra-base hits, 39 home runs and 112 runs batted in compared to Alvarez’s 35 home runs and 86 RBI, but he had a significantly less number of strikeouts (95 for Alvarez, 177 for Rooker) which shows that Alvarez was way more reliable at the plate. With 177 strikeouts for Rooker, it means that he struck out in over one-third of his at-bats this season, which is an absolutely awful number. I would’ve given it to Alvarez. He was more reliable at the plate this year, and more deserving of the Silver Slugger at DH. 

Luis Arraez was a finalist for the NL’s utility position and lost to Los Angeles Dodgers utility man Mookie Betts.

The NL batting champion wasn’t awarded a Silver slugger despite reaching 200 hits for the second straight season, batting over .300 for the fifth time in six years, and striking out fewer times than any other player in the league along earning his third consecutive All-Star selection and third straight batting title. Additionally Arraez also went 141 consecutive plate appearances without striking out. His streak was the longest in 20 years and the second-longest in franchise history. The all-time record is Tony Gwynn who went 170 plate appearances without a strikeout in 1995.

Mookie Beets missed two months of the seson.

Arraez should have been awarded the Silver slugger over Betts.

Also, in the AL for the SS at the utility spot… Brent Rooker wo the award over Yordan Alvarez.

Rooker slashed .293/365/.562 wit h39 HRs and 112 RBI but struck out 177 times or nearly every third time he came to the plate. Alvarez slashed .308/.392/.567 with 35 HRs and “just” 86 RBI but struck out 95 times compared to Rooker’s 177 Ks.

Simply put, Alvarez was the more consistent and complete batter over Rooker and should have been handed a Silver Slugger.  

And finally, Many Machado won a Silver Slugger at third base over Alec Bohm.

Machado slashed .275/.325/.472 with 29 HRs and 105 RBI and a strikeout rate of 17%. Bohm slashed .280/.332/..448 with 15 HRs, 97 RBI and a strikeout rate of 15%.

Bohm got snubbed here. While Machado’s numbers weren’t all that terrible I believe the Silver Slugger at third in the NL should have gone to Bohm

Extra Innings…