MLBRT 10/3/2024

The questions and discussion…  

MLB playoffs start on Tuesday October 1…

1) Which AL team is your pick to win the AL championship for the right to go to the World Series? Why? 

The American League team for my best bet on making the World Series are the New York Yankees.

They’ve had a fantastic season, with an offense that’s finally emerged. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are an incredible 1-2 punch, they have Stanton who can either deliver huge bombs or strike out, and the rest of their lineup has been quality pieces around to keep getting on base and driving in runs. Their pitching has posted the seventh-best ERA in all of baseball, which is very impressive considering they’ve pitched the second most innings in all of baseball and have been fourth in strikeouts on the year. They finished with 94 wins, which was the best in the American League.

I think they have the best current roster, and best team poised to run to the World Series coming out of the American League. 

As a life-long fan… since the late 1950’s… I have a bias but at the same time I think heading into the postseason the New York Yankees are right now the best team in the AL playoffs.  

The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and the other teams don’t. Throughout the season Judge and Soto more times than not were the reason teams lost when they played the Yankees. I expect that dynamic to continue  in the playoffs.

In the playoffs star pitching is usually key to why teams win and the Yankees right now have a healthy four man rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Rookie of the Year candidate Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt.

The Yankees bullpen was a problem at times this season especially with closer Clay Holmes bowling a league leading and franchise record tying 13 saves… but Luke Weaver seems to have stepped into the role and was very successful throughout September.

And in the regular season, the Yanks have a winning record versus every other AL playoff team.

Yankees win this year’s AL playoffs and go to the World Series.

2) Which NL team is your pick to win the NL championship for the right to go to the World Series? Why?

In the National League, it’s the Dodgers for me.

They’re the best team in baseball. They have the best lineup in baseball. While their pitching hasn’t been the best this season, they have dealt with a lot of turnover from the bullpen to the rotation due to injury, but still walked their way to a 98-win season. With the lineup they have, they really don’t need stellar pitching to carry them off to the World Series… Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Mookie Betts, and that’s just part of their line-up. They have a complete one through nine lineup including a very good bench. I don’t see any team really shutting them down offensively and limiting them from scoring runs. They’ll find ways to win.

And they’re my pick to win the World Series. 

I almost took the Dodgers and their 98-win season here but despite their high-powered lineup led by the presumptive NL MVP Shohei Ohtani and other All-Star batters in Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Mookie Betts, their pitching scares the bejesus out of me.

And… since a good three-man rotations are usually enough to win series in the playoffs…  

I’m picking the San Diego Padres who going into the postseason have three  excellent starters in Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA/1.067 WHIP), Michael King (2.95 ERA/1.192 WHIP) and Yu Darvish (3.31 ERA/1.065 WHIP) who are backed up by a not too shabby strater in Joe Musgrove.  

They also have what is very arguably the deepest bullpen in and therefore have the ability to mix and match against their opponents hitters without ever overtaxing the pitchers they have to use as relievers. They can keep their bullpen arms fresh and available for key situations that other teams won’t be able to replicate.

And finally the Padres batting order might not equal the power laden hitters that the Dodger have but in Luis Arraez, Fernado Tatis, Jurickson Profar , Manny Machado and Xavier Bogaerts they are deep lineup with power (190 HRs/10^th MLB) and can hit (.263 batting average (1^st MLB) and also had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball.

Padres win this year’s NL playoffs and go to the World Series

With the Mets and Braves completing a makeup doubleheader on Monday the MLB playoffs are now set… with the Mets and Braves splitting their doubleheader three NL teams finished with identical 89-73 records and due to set tiebreakers the Braves became the second Wild Card behind first Wild Card Padres and the Mets the third and last Wild Card in the NL.

Upon the completion of the AL season on Sunday the AL playoff teams were set with the Orioles, Royals and Tigers all making the playoffs as Wild Cards and in that exact order.

With that in mind…

3) Out of the three NL Wild Card teams which one is your best bet to win the NL playoffs for the right to be in this year’s World Series? Why? 

And…

Out of the three AL Wild Card teams which one is your best bet to win the AL playoffs for the right to be in this year’s World Series? Why? 

Of the National League Wild Card teams, I think there’s two teams who will come out with the best shot at making the World Series and they’re both playing each other: Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres. However, one team has been on absolute fire in the second half, going 40-14 on their way to the postseason. That team is the San Diego Padres and they’ve been playing a complete game, with an advantage of their home ballpark playing to their favor. It’s an extreme pitcher-friendly park with very deep walls and not a lot of areas to spread hits around. With the Padres being on fire, including a 4-0 shutout of Game 1 against the Braves. Send the Padres into a rivalry battle against Los Angeles on their way to the World Series. 

In the American League, I believe the Tigers have the best shot. There’s one key reason: their ace, Tarik Skubal. He’s been absolutely dominant all season and will clearly get used a lot in the playoffs. With a strong staff, teams can usually make their way to the World Series and I think that’s the best-case scenario for Detroit in this year’s playoffs as well. They were able to come back from out of the race to make a Wild Card slot. They utilized two bullpen games that led to two wins against the Baltimore Orioles on their way to establishing a postseason appearance. That alone showed me how strong their overall pitching is. Give them the nod. I have a feeling an underdog is coming out of the American League again this season. 

Well this is kinda sorta a done deal for me… right?

Since in my answer to Question 2 I just said I’m taking the Padres to oust the Dodgers and ultimately win the NL playoffs, I reckon I’m taking the Padres as the NL Wild Card team with the best chance to get to this year’s World Series, also.

In the AL…

The Detroit Tigers…

The 6-seeded Tigers beat the Astros in their AL wild-card series to advance to the next round to play the number 2 seed Guardians in a  best of five series. The Guardians won the regular-season series 7 games to six but the games for the most part were close as Cleveland won 5 games by 1 run, including two walkoffs. However the Tigers outscored the Guardians, 60-50, in the 13 games. I’ll say the Tigers get just enough pitching and out score the Guardians just enough to pull out 3 wins in the series.

Then they play the Yankees in a best of seven series… at least according to my scenario they will… and, hey they got a chance. I always say that pitching wins more games than hitting does and in presumptive AL Cy Youn winner Tarik Skubal the Tigers could win 2  games right with him and then in the other games find a way to patch together enough pitching to keep the Yanks bats relatively quiet so that they can scratch together enough runs in 2 of the games to sneak out the wins needed to earn the right to go to this year’s World Series.

Spoiler Alert…. Don’t bet the ranch on it however.  

It’s a fair to say that after the historic seasons that both Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani had this year that each will be their respective league’s MVP, so with that assumption in hand… 

4) In voting for the AL MVP, who will come in second? Why?

While I think the American League MVP race is much closer than the National League race, I believe that Bobby Witt Jr. is going to finish second behind Aaron Judge. Bobby Witt has been an absolute catalyst for the Royals’ offense this year, leading MLB in batting average (.332) while posting a 9.4 WAR, 32 home runs, 109 runs batted in, 31 stolen bases, and was one of only two players who hit over 200 hits (he had 211, Luis Arraez had 200). He’s been a huge part in the Royals making the postseason with Salvador Perez. If it wasn’t for Aaron Judge being an absolute menace at the plate, including leading the Yankees to the best American League overall record, I think Witt is making a great case to win the overall award. 

As good as Bobby Witt Jr.’s season was Aaron Judge’s was better.  

And while I don’t think a voter casting his ballot would be necessarily wrong, I just don’t see any scenario where enough voters could think that way to deny Judge… with the season he had this year in leading the majors in almost every significant statistical category…  to deny Judge winning his second AL MVP.

And therefore Bobby Witt  Jr. will be coming in second in this year’s AL MVP voting.

5) In voting for the NL MVP, who will come in second? Why?

In the National League, the MVP race is already decided by Shohei Ohtani completing the first 50-50 season in MLB history finishing with 54 home runs and 59 stolen bases. While I would love to see a certain shortstop on a local team come in second, I think we have to give second place to a different shortstop, who is playing the local team in the first round of the playoffs. Francisco Lindor has had an excellent season, posting a 7.0 WAR (according to ESPN), .273 batting average, 33 home runs, 91 runs batted in with 29 stolen bases and a huge part of the Mets’ offense. This is a runaway race, but second place, in my mind, is Lindor. Then there’s a little bit of a gap, and Matt Chapman is up next along with Willy Adames. 

Ohtani in achieving a 50 HR/50 SB seson did something no one else ever did in the history of MLB and almost won the NL Triple Crown in doing it. No way he doesn’t win the NL MVP.

Francisco Lindor may not have the numbers to overcome Ohtanis advantage in any statistical analysis but let me ask this question…

Is the most valuable player on a team the guy who most often is the key… both offensively and defensively… to the team being able to win enough game to be a playoff team or the guy who is simply the best offensive player on a team loaded with offensive players who would probably get to the playoffs even if that guy got injured?

To me Lindor is the reason the Mets made the playoffs and without him it would not have happened. Arguably if Ohtani was lost to the Dodgers for the season I think the Dodgers would have been able to still put together a decent enough lineup to still be a playoff team.

But again… no way Ohtani is not this year NL MVP… Lindor comes in second.

Extra Innings…