MLBRT 1/25/2024

  

The questions and discussion…  

1) Shohei Ohtani is an unprecedented baseball player who excels as an All-Star as a pitcher and an offensive producer as a DH who already in his six years in MLB has won a Rookie of the Year award, two MVPs and been voted twice as the U.S. Athlete of the Year. ESPN.com asked the question and MLBRT is repeating it here… 

Is Shohei Ohtani already a Baseball Hall of Famer?

Has he done enough in his six years in MLB to be selected to have a plaque in Cooperstown? Why or why not?

While I definitely think that Ohtani is going to be a Hall of Famer when it’s time for him to call it quits, I don’t think he’s there quite yet. It’s only been six seasons. And while he’s been one of the best pitchers and hitters so far in the MLB, with numerous awards, I think he needs to hit a milestone statistic.

He has 171 home runs already, and 681 hits in his career. And while he has developed two MVPS, Rookie of the Year, two Silver Sluggers, a Player of the Year Award, three All-Stars, I want to see him record 2,000 hits and get close to that 400 home run mark for him to be elected into the Hall of Fame.

If he retired today, as much disagreement as I might receive, I wouldn’t vote for him in the Hall of Fame. But he hits those milestones, he’s a first-ballot lock. I see a very bright future for him, and definitely see him being a sure-fire Hall of Famer, but right now?

No, not yet. 

I recently found out that the Hall of Fame requires 10 years of playing in MLB for a player to be eligible to be voted into the Hall. I never knew that.

Still, leaving that aside…

I’m not a big fan of taking a limited selection of years of a player’s career in MLB and using that to establish his credentials to be a Hall of Famer.

That’s why Sandy Koufax, as great as his peak was… from 1963 to 1966 when he won 3 CY Youngs and an MVP in his final 4 years in MLB before retiring at 30-years-of-age due to chronic arthritis… was elected into the Hall. Yes, those years were phenomenal and for the time he played in MLB unprecedented but four great and outstanding years should not in my opinion be enough to ensure the election of a player into the Hall.  

For those unfamiliar with Koufax or need a reminder of the player he was for those four years… during those years he went 97-19 for an outstanding .836 W/L percentage. And in his three Cy Young years (1963, 1965 and 1966) he respectively won 25, 26 and 27 games; pitched 311, 335 and 323 innings; struck out 306, 383 and 317, while walking 58, 71 and 97 batters, with league leading ERAs and FIPs mostly under 2.00. However prior to those years, during his first eight years with the Dodgers, he barely was a .500 pitcher whose ERAs and FIPs were closer to 4.00 and above than being anywhere near 3.00 or below.

I think the following quote from Baseball Prospectus nails it regarding Koufax… “There are people who have an emotional attachment to the idea that Sandy Koufax was one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, rather than a good one with a high peak and some fortuitous timing.”

Sorry, but as great and unprecedented for the time period those years were it should not have been enough to elect Koufax into the Hall.

The same criteria should be applied to Ohtani now.

As great and unprecedented his six-year career in MLB as a dual threat pitcher and hitter that he has been… in fact, in the history of the game those six years have been… it is not enough in my opinion to elect him into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Now considering a player needs to be in MLB for at least 10 years before he is eligible to be elected by the Baseball Writers into the Hall…

If he continues to play for another minimum of 4 years and in those 4 years puts up the numbers, both as a pitcher and a hitter, he has put up during his first 6 years, especially in his MVP years, and starts threatening to be a 50 HR and beyond a year guy like he did in the 2023 season, as well as in all probability adds to that MVP total, maybe with a CY Young thrown in, then yes, I would say that he would very arguably be a lock to be elected into the Hall.

2) For the 2023 season Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman were statistically among baseball’s best hitters in 2023, ranking, respectively, first, fifth and seventh in both OPS and slugging percentage; third, seventh and ninth in batting average; and third, fifth and six in total bases. By these measurements they arguably have the potential in 2024 to be one of the best batting trios ever in a team’s batting order.

Since the 2024 MLB season has yet to take place this is a question… of where they rank… for a future column, but up to this point in MLB history…

Which trio of batters was the best ever in a MLB team’s batting order? Why?

The 1960-1963 New York Yankees featured a trio of players who surpassed their Murderer’s Row lineup with Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Tony Lazzeri. The trio of Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris (who won back-to-back MVP Awards) and Yogi Berra (who hit 51 HR in this three-year stretch) tops the list of MLB trios.

They won two World Series in this timeframe, and Mantle and Maris had one of the best seasons ever, combined, in 1961, where both players were pushing to surpass Babe Ruth’s home run record. Maris surpassed it, won back-to-back-to-back MVP Awards from 1960-1962, and averaged 39 home runs a season over that timeframe. This was the best trio ever compiled in MLB history, and they brought World Series trophies to boot. 

I actually have a 1A and 1B pick and then a 2^nd pick… all from New York Yankee teams… my 2^nd pick is from when I was just 12-years old and was from the early 1960’s era of Mantle and Maris…  and the other two picks… 1A and 1B…. were from perusing magazines, books and the internet (especially baseball-reference.com) of the mid to late 1920’s and early 1930’s era of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

My primary pick is from the 1926 Yankees and is comprised of Ruth, Gehrig and Tony Lazzeri. This trio put up the following somewhat incomprehensible statistics… Ruth: 60 HRs, 165 RBI, 158 runs, a slash line of .356/.486/.772 and an OPS of 1.258;  Gehrig: 47 HRs, 173 RBI, 149 runs with a slash line of .373/.474/..765 with an OPS of 1.249 and Lazzeri: 18 HRs, 107 RBI, 92 runs, with a slash line of .309/.383/.482 with an OPS of .866.

Interestingly that trio is rivaled for second best ever trio by three players from the 1931 Yankees that included Ruth, Gehrig but with Lazzeri replaced by Ben Chapman… Ruth: 46 HRs, 162 RBI, 149 runs, slash line of .373/.485/.700 with an OPS of 1.195; Gehrig: 46 HRs, 185 RBI. 163 runs, slash line of .341/..446/.662 with an OPS of 1.108 and Chapman: 17 HR, 122 RBI, 120 runs, slash line of .315/.396/.483 with an OPS of .879.

And then there is my third best ever trio from the 1961 Yankees… Roger Maris: 61 HRs, 141 RBI, 132 runs, slash line of .269/.372/.620 with an OPS of .953;  Mickey Mantle: 54 HRs, 128 RBI, 131 runs, slash line of .317/.448/.687 with an OPS of 1.135 and Bill Skowron: 28 HR, 89 RBI, 77 runs, .267/.318/.472 with an OPS of .790.    

3) The New York Mets power hitting first baseman Pete Alonso is entering his contract year. In your opinion do the Mets extend his contract or trade him for prospects and/or MLB ready players? Why?

I think the Mets are going to end up extending Pete Alonso.

With new general manager David Stearns now taking over the reins, and an owner who has no problem spending money, they have to keep their top hitter. They have to keep their power hitter. And they will. Stearns has already stated this off-season that he’d like to retain Alonso and the New York Mets don’t have any plans to trade him away to a contender or his ex-team, the Milwaukee Brewers. So I’ll expect a deal to get reached either before the season or in spring training.

And that’s the move that the Mets should do. He hit over 40 home runs last year, and in five seasons, is only eight home runs shy of 200, which puts him just a tick shy of 40 home runs a year. He has a .251 batting average and 136 OPS+ in his five-year career, averaging 150 strikeouts a year. I think anybody would take the strikeouts that come with his power and his reliability at the plate to be a game-changer. He also has been a Home Run Derby staple in MLB as well.

They extend him long-term. 

I think it’s a 50-50 proposition that Alonso gets traded before the 2024 season begins. And I lean towards him being traded.

My thinking towards a trade are based on two things…

(1) David Stearns is the new GM of the Mets and his past record during as the Milwaukee Brewers GM shows that the Brewers used seven different Opening Day first basemen.

(2) Stearns is not big on prioritizing first base in his building a team, and as great as the HR numbers Alonso has put up in his career, he is 29-years old, meaning he is approaching being on the wrong side of 30 although also in the supposed prime of his career, and I believe Stearns will be exploring Alonso’s value (guys with the likelihood to slug 50+ HRs don’t become available all that often) with potential trade partners and the return he can get in other position players that Sterns values more dearly as well as prospects to add to the Mets pipeline for the future.   

Still as popular as Alonso is and the draw he is for fans to the ball park as he is in New York and his value as a big bopper, run producer at the top of the batting order for the Mets that he is… I think it is also a fair propsition he could not get traded and stay a Met.  

Like I initially proposed… I think it is a 50-50 deal that it could go either way. 

4) In your opinion do the Chicago White Sox trade starting pitcher Dylan Cease? Why or why not?

And if Cease is traded, which team do you think ultimately lands him? Why?

I don’t think the White Sox will trade Dylan Cease before the season. I’d look more towards the trade deadline to see him get moved to a contending team who will want to lock him up for the long-term as an ace on their roster, or a huge one-two punch on a roster like the Yankees, or maybe the Dodgers will make a push to become not only an All-Star team, but a lock for a World Series ring.

The White Sox asking price has raised in the past couple of weeks and a lot of reporters and insiders are hearing that it’s a lot less likely that we’ll see a trade happen before the season involving Dylan Cease. They have an incredibly high asking price that teams aren’t willing to pay and it’s looking extremely likely that he’s going to stay with the White Sox, at least to start the season. 

Yes they trade him. Just not before the season begins and I look for it happening a lot closer to the trade deadline when it does occur.

Right now I think the White Sox asking price is too high and many teams who want Cease are more than a tad reluctant to pay the price for him at this point in time as they prepare for spring training and the upcoming season. But during the season as the trade deadline nears; when teams are in the heat of the hunt for the playoffs and jockeying for playoff positioning, then I think certain teams will pony up the prospects and/or MLB ready players that will convince the ChiSox to trade Cease to one of the contenders.  

As for which teams will most likely wind up trading for Cease? I think the two big favorites will most likely be either the Yankees or the Dodgers.

For the Yanks… it all depends on whether the Yankees can rebound from their seson last year when they missed the playoffs and actually be in contention for the playoffs this season  and will probably be looking to add to either enhance their rotation or replace an injured pitcher.

And if the Dodgers are bidding for Cease it will most likely be that their rotation is in need of some help for what will be either injuries or pitchers under-performing.

5) At this point in the off-season and with pitchers and catchers just weeks away from reporting for spring training…

How would you rate your favorite team’s off-season and its prospects for the 2024 season? Why?

I would give the Brewers a C+.

They were able to lock up Jackson Chourio for a long-term deal, which is a fantastic move. Especially if he turns out to be the superstar that he’s projected to be. That will leave the Brewers with an absolute steal of a deal for him.

Outside of that, they were able to avoid arbitration with all of their players who were eligible and let go one of their best pitchers in Brandon Woodruff who will most likely miss almost all of this season due to arm surgery and would be a loss at the end of the season anyway.

One disappointing thing was that they weren’t able to resolve the Corbin Burnes situation in that a contract or a trade hasn’t materialized. And that’s going to be the big question, because how much is he going to be worth at the trade deadline, especially with him looking more towards free agency than signing a deal with a team that he gets traded to, unless the Brewers can coordinate that up for both Burnes and the acquiring organization.

Not really any bigger moves to push the needle one way or the other, and the biggest loss of all, the Brewers have to change managers after Craig Counsell decided to go two hours south to take over the Chicago Cubs. Which is a major blow to a manager who grew up in the Whitefish Bay area (a northern suburb of Milwaukee) and played for the Brewers as a player. It was a lot of rumors about how the contract negotiations went down, and the fact that he left the organization (whether it was differences between ownership/management and Counsell, or truly money) will forever haunt the Brewers, in my opinion, as he turned the Brewers into a competitor with an extremely limited roster. He was referred to as the best manager in baseball, or one of the best, and to see him go to the division rivals and the biggest, most hated rival of the Brewers, is absolutely heart-breaking.

I think the Brewers can still compete for the NL Central division title, but it’s going to be a tough year for the Brewers, and the outlook for 2025 doesn’t look good either. 

B-/C+

The Yankees missed the playoffs and barely were over a .500 ball club as much due to injuries occurring to some key starting position players…  especially right fielder Aaron Judge and first baseman Anthony Rizzo… as well as their starting rotation, plus the fact that GM Cashman compiled a right handed batting order in a ball park with the third smallest right field in MLB that has a “left porch” designed for left handed power hitters. That being said they needed to add some left-handed position players for the starting batting order as well as at least one top of the rotation starter if not two starters for their either perpetually injured rotation or to replace pitchers who simply sucked.

So with those objectives in mind the Yankees went out and traded for the best bat available this offseason in outfielder and lefthanded hitter Juan Soto who is a guy with decent  power and possesses the highest on-base percentage in all of MLB since his rookie season to bat in front of All-Star Aaron Judge. Word is that manager Boone will use Soto at the second spot and move Judge (finally!) down in the order to the third spot making for a potentially very dynamic run producing combo at the top of their batting order.  

They also pulled off a rare trade with their AL East arch-rival Red Sox for another left-handed batter in Alex Verdugo who most days will slide into left field to shore up a major deficiency in that area all of last season both offensively and defensibly. Verdugo isn’t the flashiest acquisition, but it should provide much-needed stability at a position that was anything but in 2023.  In another outfield move they added Trent Grisham who brings Gold Glove defense but will be moved around in the outfield off of the bench to start the season but provide great insurance in case of an injury to any of the outfielders or to provide a day off for those players from time to time due to the rigors of a 162-game schedule.  

Anthony Rizzo is by all reports recovered from his concussion problems and should be penciled in most days as the team’s first baseman to add some oomph and depth to the batting order, so that position should also be shored up. And the rest of the infield is essentially set with DJ LeMahieu (who needs to rebound from an off season in 2023) at third base, Gleyber Torres at second base and Gold Glover Anthony Volpe at shortstop.  

Offensively the Yankees should be better in 2024 than they were in 2023. Defensively they should be at the minimum be acceptable if not slightly better than average. Above all they need to stay healthy.

But the lack of dependable pitching depth is alarming for a team that still has several question marks outside of Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole.

They added Marcus Stroman who in my opinion is a kinda, sorta decent addition for their rotation and projects as the No. 3 starter behind Cole and  oft-injured Carlos Rodon who himself also needs to have a bounce back season. But Stroman also has dealt with injuries the past two seasons, which has limited his workload. But prior to that he was one of the most durable pitchers in MLB as well as being one of the better starters in the game. As I indicated, a kinda, sorta decent add.  

But that rotation still has significant holes and very little depth and is the biggest reason why I give the team a B- and maybe only a C+ for their off-season at this point.

This grade could go up if they either trade for Dylan Cease or sign Jordan Montgomery. I’m not really hot on NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell but even he would be an improvement for this Yankee rotation.

My overall outlook for the team is they should be in the hunt for the playoffs and if everything falls into place and the team stays healthy maybe for the AL East title.  

Extra Innings…