I’m sitting here awake waaaaaaaaaaaaay too damn early on the best eating day of the year, Thanksgiving. I’m visiting my dad and we crashed early since today is kind of a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuge day for most people.
So, I’m awake 2 hours early and I’ve been absent the last 2 weeks so I decided to churn out a special Turkey Day lead pipe locks…..there can’t be anything else scheduled for today, am I right? Okay, let’s get to it.
I’m 10-6 on the season and hoping to maintain a decent winning % with my first attempt at the NFL.
Minnesota @ Detroit 12:30pm EST on Fox
Minnesota is on fire right now and they are playing out of their minds, behind the strong play of QB Case Keenum. Keenum, a career backup, has helped the Vikes win five straight since losing to the Lions, 14-7, earlier this season.
At some point, we’re left wondering when it will hit midnight and Keenum will turn back into a pumpkin. Because, it really has been a fairy tale type season for this QB who wasn’t so great last year with the Los Angeles Rams. Keenum is hitting a career high 65% of his passes for another career high 243 yards per game, yet another career high 7.3 yards per attempt, with 12 TD’s and just five INT’s. He may not be the QB of the future with Teddy Bridgewater set to return but he is about to cash in on a nice payday in the offseason with some desperate team for a QB. In a perfect world, he seems like a good backup to have, not a starter necessarily.
But, this game won’t be a Cinderella ending for the Vikes. Not today, not this game.
Detroit’s defense is going to come up big and they are going to be the difference imo. They aren’t a “great defense” by any means but they are an opportunistic defense and have 11 interceptions so far this season. I believe they can get a pass rush going, forcing Keenum into a few mental errors. They are 4th best defensive in the League when it comes to turnovers.
Oh, and the Lions have their own pretty good QB in Matt Stafford. Minny’s defensive strength is against the run…..Stafford is going to be throwing the ball and a lot.
I like the Lions +3 and the under 45.
Prediction: Detroit wins, 24-20.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys 4:30pm EST on CBS
This game features 2 teams headed in opposite directions. LA started 0-4 but has gone 4-2 in their last six games. Dallas started out 5-3 and has lost their last 2 games without star RB Zeke Elliott.
I like this matchup for some reason. You have the aging gunslinger Philip Rivers vs the new kid on the block in Dak Prescott.
The Chargers are 8th best in the League in passing yards allowed….they have allowed 12 TD’s, but they also have 12 INT’s. And Dak has been making mental mistakes since Elliott has been out. Dak threw for just 176 yards vs Atlanta a few weeks ago and last week, he threw for just 145 yards, but also threw two INT’s.
My picks are the and the Chargers -2 and the under 47.5
Prediction: SD wins, 23-17. Rivers has choked at times this season and during his career, but I like him against a beat up defense and Dak who is trying to win without his best offensive weapon. Prescott hasn’t developed into a top flight QB YET that can go out and win a game on his own.
NY Giants @ Washington Redskins 8:30pm EST on NBC
This is a must win for Washington if they have hopes of staying in a tough NFC WC race. With a win, they’d improve to 5-6 and have to win out to get in probably, but crazier things have happened. And they have a franchise QB in Kirk Cousins who can do it.
If their defense can stop giving up big leads, like last weekend vs the New Orleans Saints when they gave up an 18 point lead with about 6 minutes left to play. However, NY’s offense isn’t quite the same as NO’s.
The Giants are struggling through a nightmarish season that will probably end up with their head coach being fired. Maybe even after this game if it’s bad enough…..but that would be harsh to fire him after Thanksgiving but it’s a rivalry game so you never know.
Crazy things happen on Thanksgiving, upsets occur often, but I just don’t see it in this game. The “upset” I have today is Detroit beating Minny. This one is just a gut prediction.
I like the Redskins -7 and surprise, surprise, the over 44.5. I usually favor the under but think game will go over.
Prediction: Washington wins, 30-16.
Have fun eating and spending time with fam and friends today, enjoy it…..DJ signing off for now.
Tiny URL for this post: