NBA Draft Lottery Conspiracy? The numbers.

Since 2005, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams enter in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances

Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004
6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001
7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
8 28 .028 .033 .039 .724 .168 .008 .000
9 17 .017 .020 .024 .813 .122 .004 .000
10 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000
11 8 .008 .009 .012 .907 .063 .001 .000
12 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000
13 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018
14 5 .005 .006 .007 .982

Individual Teams

I’m only going to worry about changes, if a team “Earned” the second pick, wasn’t jumped, I didn’t count that. I’m also using cities, since I’m looking at market size, and not teams.

So lets go through the years, and no you won’t hurt my feelings if you skip this part.

2005
Milwaukee moved up 5, Portland moved up 1.
New Orleans and Charlotte went down 2, Atlanta and Utah went down 1,

2006
Toronto went up 4
Portland went down 3 Atlanta went down 1

2007
Portland went up 6, Seattle up 3, Atlanta went up 1
Memphis, Boston, Milwaukee went down 3, Minnesota down 1.

2008 Bulls up 8 (Tied for biggest Jump)
Seattle down 2, Miami, Memphis,NYK,Clippers, Milwaukee , Charlotte down 1

2009 Memphis up 4, Clippers up 2, OKC up 1
Sacramento and Washington down 3, Minny down 1

2010 Washington and Philadelphia up 4
Nets, Minnesota, Sacramento and GST down 2

2011 Clippers up 7, Nets up 3
Cleveland, Toronto,Washington, Kings down 2, Minny and Detroit down 1

2012 New Orleans Up 3
Charlotte ,Washington, Cleveland down 1

2013 Wash up 5, Cleveland Up 2
Charlotte down 2, Orlando, Phoenix, NO, Sacramento, and Detroit all down 1

2014 Cleveland Up 8 (Tied for biggest Jump)
Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Orlando,Utah,Boston,La Lakers,Sacramento, and Detroit down 1

2015 La Lakers up 2
Knicks Down 2

2016 No change

2017 Lakers and Sixers up 1
Suns down 2

Winners and Losers

Lotteries gained and Lost, and overall spots up or down
Example, The Sixers went up 4 spots in 2010, and down 1 spot in 2014, for a 1-1 record with a overall gain of 3. Also keep in mind the biggest drop possible is 3 (Done 4 times, but not since 2009, while 2 teams have moved up 8 spots.

Chicago Bulls
(1-0, 8)
 Sacramento Kings
(0-4, -7)
Los Angeles Clippers
(2-1, 8)
 Charlotte Hornets
(0-4, -6)
Cleveland Cavaliers
(2-2, 7)
Minnesota Timberwolves
(0-4, -5)
Portland Trail Blazers
(2-1, 4)
 Boston Celtics
(0-2, -4)
Philadelphia 76ers
(2-1, 4)
Detroit Pistons
(0-3, -3)
 Washington Wizards
(2-3, 3)
Phoenix Suns
(0-2, -3)
 Los Angeles Lakers
(2-1, 2)
 Orlando Magic
(0-2, -2)
Toronto Raptors
(1-1, 2)
Utah Jazz
(0-2, -2)
Brooklyn Nets,
(1-1, 1)
Golden State Warriors
(0-1, -2)
New York Knicks
(1-1, 1)
Memphis Grizzlies
(1-2, 0)
Atlanta Hawks
(1-2, -1)
Oklahoma City Thunder
(1-0, 1)
Milwaukee Bucks
(1-3, 0)
  Miami Heat
(0-1, -1)
 Seattle
(1-1, 1)
New Orleans Pelicans
(1-2, 0)

Note: Dallas Mavericks,Denver Nuggets,  Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, and San Antonio Spurs have never moved in the NBA Draft Lottery. (Trivia for the bar)

Washington has moved 5 times, just ahead of Sacramento, Charlotte, and Minnesota, who have each moved down 4 times.

While Boston could be considered a large market and NBA Blue-Blood, the three teams above them are without a doubt smaller teams not on TNT’s rader even when winning.

Over on the winning side, notice how many teams have both won and lost, with the exception of Chicago, as OKC is the only other “winning” team without a loss of position.

You almost have to feel for the Bucks fans, as they have had to pay 3 times for moving up once to get the Mighty Bogut.

So what does this mean for the 2017 NBA Draft? I would not look for a lot of movement, maybe one team into the top 3, and the Lakers won’t lose that pick, and don’t get too excited Sacramento.

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