Some more BBWAA and HOF ballot talk this week at the Roundtable…
1) With HOF ballot now being made public it was expected votes for enshrinement of Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds into the Hall would increase and many media folks did report that they had dramatic gains in HOF voting. However, are you surprised that Roger Clemens (2017: 54.1%; 2016: 45.2%) and Barry Bonds (2017: 53.8%; 2016:44.3%) only got the vote totals they did after the BBWAA HOF ballots were revealed?
Dan: No, I’m not surprised. I don’t think we’re going to see them enter the Hall of Fame for a couple more years. Almost everybody, with the exclusion of one person, has been elected once they hit 50+ percent of the votes before their fifth year. They are both deserving.
I thought we were going to see higher vote totals for them. Next year I expect to see them both hit in the 60 range of votes.
Earl: I expected there would have been some sort of corrective backlash when the early totals were announced. Actually, I figured that there would have been, which is why I was not surprised when there were a handful of articles out there being very critical of Bonds and Clemens. However, I am encouraged that the numbers are trending upwards. Bonds and Clemens belong in the Hall of Fame. Their numbers warrant induction, and neither one was actually proven of taking steroids, so you might as well let them in.
Steve: Not at all. Most writers were very open about who they were going to vote for and who they were not going to vote for, even prior to the ballots being made public. They have their agenda on if they are going to allow people with PED suspicion in or not. So, no, it does not surprise me at all.
I expected them to be in the upper 50’s maybe hitting low 60%
2) It’s being said that before their term of 10 years of being on the HOF ballot ends that both Clemens and Bonds will eventually make it into the Hall. If, (and when?) they do get elected, then how do you think that will effect Alex Rodriguez’ hopes for Hall enshrinement? Will he also eventually be elected into the Hall before his 10 years of ballot time are up? Why or why not?
Dan: I don’t think so. Alex Rodriguez has had a lot of problems with steroids and everyone knows he used, including serving a hefty suspension. Would I put Rodriguez in? Yes, eventually. But, I don’t think that it’ll be soon for him.
He’ll have to wait almost the entire length of his ballot eligibility.
Earl: Unlike Bonds and Clemens, Alex Rodriguez has been punished for being a steroid user. However, I think he too should get in. If ,you want to label him with an asterisk, that’s fine, but, I feel that his numbers warrant induction in the Hall.
I think he will get in, but, like Bonds and Clemens, it is going to take time. It’s going to take writers some years, to get over their attitudes towards him, but they will let him in, eventually.
Steve: I think they both will eventually get in, as the writers will feel like they have been punished enough with just the wait getting in. As for A-Rod, I think more and more writers are looking at on field performance and what they did for the game.
A-Rod is a Hall of Famer, and I think he gets in eventually too, just not on the first or second ballot.
3) Trevor Hoffman (74%) and Vladimir Guerrero (71.7%) just missed making it into the HOF class of 2017 and many people are saying that they now are assured of being elected in 2018.
However, in 2018 there are going to be two near locks, if not slam dunks, on the HOF ballot… Chipper Jones who is arguably one the best 3rd baseman to ever play the game with a career .303 average, 468 home runs, 1,623 RBIs, and, Jim Thome who had career totals that included a career .276 average, 612 HRs, 1,699 RBIs.
Will Jones and Thome hurt Hoffman’s and/or Guerrero’s chances for election in 2018 or will we see at least 4 players being in the HOF’s class of 2018?
Hoffman gets in next season. Guerrero deserves it and I believe he’ll get in as well. Chipper Jones and Thome are locks.
Hoffman should have gotten in this season as should have Guerrero. But, they’ll get in next year so there shouldn’t be an issue. I can’t see any logical explanation as to why they won’t, especially with the mandatory releasing of ballots which means people who exclude them will have some explaining to do for themselves.
Earl: All four will get in, but I can see either Guerrero or Hoffman (likely Guerrero in my opinion) take a step back in 2018 because Chipper and Thome should be first HOF ballot locks. Their numbers absolutely call for them to get in on the first ballot, and they deserve the honor.
Steve: They will get in next year, alongside Chipper Jones. Thome should get in, but I think that he will be on the outside looking in next year, and look for him to be enshrined in 2019. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see all four get in, but my guess will be three again. Chipper, Trevor, and Vlad.
4) Are you surprised that Jorge Posada, with just 17 of the 442 voters (3.8 percent), missed the 5% cutoff to be on next year’s (as well as future) HOF ballot? Why or why not?
He was a great player but I just don’t think he was great enough to warrant a Hall of Fame induction. Fantastic career, will always be remembered by me and many, many others, but, he just wasn’t good enough to crack the Hall of Fame and there’s no shame in that.
Earl: Not surprised. Great Yankee, but would belong in the Hall of the Very Good and not the Hall of Fame. Posada was vital to the Yankees World Series winning teams, but he was overshadowed by Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens, etc…
While Posada is a great player, when you mention his name, you don’t think Hall of Fame. You think good catcher, and a championship caliber player. He is another Hall of Very Good player, but he is nowhere near a Hall of Famer.
5) Arguably Jose Canseco is one of the few people who may have told the truth during and after the entire PED era debacle in MLB. Now, he is crying (on Twitter and wherever else anyone will listen to him) that a player (Ivan Rodríguez) he alleges that he once injected with the juice is in the Hall while Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro are not…. not to mention Clemens and Bonds.
Does he have a valid point or should he just STFU and go away… his 15 minutes of fame are already well past its due date?
Dan: While Canseco might have a point, in all reality he should just go away. His schtick is old and tiring. Nobody cares anymore about what he has to say. He’s just talk now. I don’t care about what he has to say and I’m pretty confident most people don’t either.
Keep Conseco away from talking about anything. He’ll come running his mouth again when Bonds and Clemens get in. Oh, well. He needs to shut up and go do whatever he was doing, which I don’t think was much of anything.
Earl: He should just be quiet, but I did think about that when I saw Ivan Rodriguez get into the Hall. I thought Pudge would get in, but I thought the brush of Canseco’s allegations would have hurt him a bit, but it didn’t. Maybe Canseco has a legitimate gripe, but his reputation is so damaged that it would do him better to just shut up.
Steve: He really needs to just go away, but he has been right on the issue. Rodriguez never tested positive for PED’s. While he was under suspicion sure, he never failed a test. And to me, you cannot hold someone accountable if he never failed a drug test. He would have been on my ballot, and I have no problem with him getting in. Canseco does not and will never have a vote for the Hall of Fame, so he does need to shut his mouth.
In two separate incidents on Sunday morning in the Dominican Republic former MLB player Andy Marte and developing MLB star pitcher Yordano Ventura were killed in car accidents.
May they rest in peace…
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