So week one is in the books.
Lets be honest folks, the committee is in an unwinnable position, and did themselves no favors in only picking 4 teams to go to the playoffs- I have been pushing for 8 teams, and I’ve had a plan in place for going on a decade. The biggest problem they have so far is ranking the top 25. Why they just didn’t pick 4 and move on until next week, is just making problems from themselves.
But, as with the BCS, there is a good chance that it will all work itself out.
But if Not . . .
Lets just say I’m not exactly encouraged by week one.
Southeastern Conference’s West Division four of the top six teams, I’m actually OK with that, since we all know they play each other and will knock each other off, and if we get two of them in the playoffs, that might be the way it should be.
When I’m picking the four teams, I’m looking at who they lost to, and where. I’m not looking for who they beat, since the system is setup where only Power Five Conferences matter. If Wake Forest goes undefeated, then they deserve a top four seed, since they beat everyone in front of them. If LSU beats Michigan State, then thanks LSU for knocking off an opponent, so that’s one less team to worry about. The chances of one team being undefeated in every Power Five Conference is about as much as a person making minimum wage being elected Senator of California.
So the top 2 teams are Mississippi State and Florida State, sorry Marshall.
So lets look at the One Loss Teams. Sorry, I don’t care who your two losses are to, that just one too many at this point. I’ll also add in games against teams currently ranked in the AP top 15.
Auburn (#3 in the rankings, #4 in AP, #4 in USA Today)
Loss is on the road vs Mississippi State
Still have Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama- ALL on the road. Good luck with that.
Ole Miss (#4 in the rankings, #7 in AP, #9 in USA Today)
Loss is on the road vs LSU
Still have Auburn and Mississippi State, both at home. Both winnable, but they are getting Auburn at the wrong time. The QB fell apart vs LSU, and could use that Presbyterian game on Nov 8 on the first instead to get his mind right.
Oregon (#5 in the rankings, #5 in AP, #6 in USA Today)
Loss is at home vs Arizona
Only ranked team left is against Utah, at home.
The weakness of the Pac-10 put them in a position where undefeated is the only change to be 100% in the race.
Alabama (#6 in the rankings, #3 in AP, #3 in USA Today)
Loss is on the road against Ole Miss
Have LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn at home. If they win out, I think they get in, but if they were pick a year for an early loss, getting everyone at home after that is the way to go.
TCU (#7 in the rankings, #10 in AP, #10 in USA Today)
Loss is at Baylor
They have a remaining game against Kansas State. The Problem here is much like the Pac-12, they have to go undefeated to be 100% in.
Michigan State (#8 in the rankings, #8 in AP, #5 in USA Today)
Loss is at Oregon
They will be playing thier last ranked team in two weeks with Ohio State at home. I don’t see Michigan State being able to stay here, the Big Whatever just isn’t that strong. They have to win out, and hope someone knocks off Florida State, and they get one of the non-SEC spots. An Oregon loss would be great.
Kansas State (#9 in the rankings, #11 in AP, #11 in USA Today)
Loss was at home against Auburn.
The Wildcats have games against TCU and Baylor, both on the road. Another FSU hater, they have to win out and get some luck.
Notre Dame (#10 in the rankings, #6 in AP, #7 in USA Today)
Loss was on the road against Florida State
They have Arizona State left on the road. The Irish might be the only top-team pushing for Florida State, and they have to handle business the rest of the year. They won’t get much love this year at the USC game, unless the Trojans turn it around.
Georgia (#11 in the rankings, #9 in AP, #8 in USA Today)
Loss was against South Carolina on the road.
Games at home vs Auburn is the only one left against ranked teams. Georgia is actually in a good position. Beat Auburn, and win the East, and knock off the number 1 team in the country in the SEC championship.
Arizona (#12 in the rankings, #14 in AP, #15 in USA Today)
Loss was at home vs USC
The only ranked team left on the slate is at home against Arizona State. Arizona has a problem. They have a lot of work to do, and need some major help.
Baylor (#13 in the rankings, #12 in AP, #12 in USA Today)
Loss was on the road against West Virginia
The only ranked team left for them is home against Kansas State. That West Virginia loss most likely killed them, since they don’t have the love of the SEC or the media push of the Pac-12 or Big 10 does.
Arizona State (#14 in the rankings, #15 in AP, #14 in USA Today)
Loss was at home against UCLA
Games remaining is Notre Dame at home, and Arizona on the road. If they can beat Notre Dame and Arizona convincingly, there could be a chance, albeit a small one.
Nebraska (#15 in the rankings, #17 in AP, #16 in USA Today)
Loss was on the road against Michigan State
There are no ranked opponents left.
The Cornhuskers are done, unless they get really lucky, as they have no teams ranked at ALL left. Only Michigan State running the table, and beating them in a rematch is the only hope.
Ohio State (#16 in the rankings, #13 in AP, #13 in USA Today)
Loss was at home vs Virginia Tech
The only ranked team remaining is at Michigan State, and I don’t think all the Urban Myer love in the world gets you one of the four spots when you are balancing a home loss to a middling team vs Nebraska and Michigan State.
Utah (#17 in the rankings, #18 in AP, #18 in USA Today)
Loss was at home against Washington State
The Utes have Oregon and Arizona at home, and Arizona State on the road. Utah is in spoiler mode. Sad to say it, but they simply are.
East Carolina (#23 in the rankings, #21 in AP, #8 in USA Today)
Loss was on the road against South Carolina.
The Pirates have no ranked opponents on the slate at all. Enjoy a good bowl game ECU. Maybe you can play Marshall?
Duke (#24 in the rankings, #24 in AP, #24 in USA Today)
Loss was on the road against Miami
The Blue Devils have no ranked opponents left. Duke had the bad luck of playing Miami when they were MIAMI, so no major showdown with Florida State.
For the record, my extra two teams are Auburn and Notre Dame, since they both lost on the road vs the two undefeated teams.
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