UFC 169 Picks

ufc 169Welcome to the UFC 169 Picks!

Lightweights
Jamie Varner (21-8-1, 3-3 UFC) vs. Abel Trujillo (11-5, 2-1 UFC)

Varner is a strong wrestler, and a good striker, Abel is a better striker, but has problems when someone is determined to put him on his arse. I think Varner drops the first round trying to strike with him, before deciding he needs to win and wrestling is the way to do it.

Flyweights
John Lineker (23-6, 4-1 UFC) vs. Ali Bagautinov (12-2, 2-0 UFC)

Lineker has some great punching power, and can throw with the best of them, if he can make weight and not keep earning paycuts. The problem is he can throw wild and get out of balance- and a disciplined boxer can tear him apart. Ali is a very good boxer, and can take a punch, but I don’t think he’s that good. I think much like Varner, he is going to have to take the fight to the ground to win a decision.

Heavyweights
Frank Mir (16-8, 14-8 UFC) vs. Alistair Overeem (36-13, 1-2 UFC)

I’m a MIR fan, I admit it. But he’s in a world of hurt here. I know he was going to get hammered vs JDS, and I know he has a problem when someone touches his chin. Overeem can and will touch his chin, and Mir has a tendency to wilt when put under heavy fire. Mir has some power, and when the Reem gets tired, his chin gets exposed. Overeem has a better than you think takedown defense, and I’m not sure Mir can take him down to work the ground game. Overeem has a good top game, so Mir pulling guard would not be wise. I hate to pick against MIR, but unless he does a great job of wearing Overeem out and dragging him to deep water, he’s gonna be taking a nap.

UFC Featherweight Championship
Jose Aldo (23-1, 5-0 UFC) vs. Ricardo Lamas (13-2, 4-0 UFC)

Aldo is the best striker at 145. He might be the best striker in every division he decides to enter. I think Lamas has a really great chance to win.

Kidding.

Lamas has to outstrike someone that is bigger, faster, stronger and more technical than he is, and I don’t think Lamas, even as a decorated wrestler, I don’t think that he is going to dictate where the fight goes. Aldo’s going to knock him out in short order, possible round 2.

I'll be waiting
I’ll be waiting

UFC Bantamweight Championship
Renan Barao (31-1, 6-0 UFC) vs. Urijah Faber (30-6, 6-2 UFC)

Barao is the best Bantamweight in the world, there is only 1 man that can even challenge that in the cage- and he is not the guy that is across the cage from him.
Seemingly every loss on Fabers scorecard is a title shot- including one to Barao in a fight that wasn’t that close. The only reason this might be different- MIGHT be, is Bang is in the corner, he has made a HUGE difference in the camp, and Faber isn’t the type of guy that won’t sit down and learn from someone. I think its going to be more competative, but the end result will be the same. I do think Faber tries to drag this out a bit- and see if he can make Barao tired, but I don’t see him doing it.

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