Welcome to the UFC 156 Predictions! Sorry for not having a podcast this week, but we do bring you the picks!
Don’t forget the MMAPlayground group!
Edwin Figueroa vs. Francisco Rivera
Jim: Rivera TKO Round 2
David: Figueroa DES
Chico Camus vs. Dustin Kimura
Jim: Camus Decision
David: I Like Kimura in a mild upset via DEC
Preliminary Card (FX)
Yves Edwards vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg
Jim: Edwards Decision
David: Yves has a TON of fight experience, but Vallie-Flagg should have his moments. Yves wins in what might be a better fight than it looks on paper.
Jacob Volkmann vs. Bobby Green
Jim: Volkmann Submission Round 1
David: Volkman could lay on Green till Christmas.
Tyron Woodley vs. Jay Hieron
Jim: Woodley Decision
David: Woody is going to dump Jay on his head, again and again and again, Hieron might be looking at a 170 drop, but he’s tough, and I think he lasts all 15 minutes, and he’s going to make Tyron work to keep him down. Its more exciting than Volkman/Green, but its the same fight (and the crowds’s gonna HATE this half hour.
Gleison Tibau vs. Evan Dunham
David: I’m a Dunham fan, and sadly he has a pattern of losing when he should be a fight away from a #1 contenders spot. A win 2-3, lose 1 pattern is nothing to be ashamed at in the Lightweight Division, as stacked as it is. I do wonder if he’s peaked, and that scares me. I’m taking Dunham, but I’m not confident in it. The scary thing is, if you look at who has beaten Gleason, its a pretty good list. Evan would lose to the same guys. Is there a such thing as a #8 contender fight?
Jim: Dunham Decision
Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian McCall
David: Benny was my pick to win the 125 title. I really didn’t think anyone could hang with him standing for 15 minutes on the feet. Ian just got screwed over with a “tie” and then lost the rematch. This was so close to being a title fight, and the winner should easily get the next shot. Might Mouse vs Benny? Yes Please. I love Ian’s attitude and his look, but I don’t think he has the speed to get to Benny’s chin and I think he gets picked apart for 2 of the 3 rounds. 30-27,30-26,29-28
Roni: Ian is a durable fighter. If you saw his first fight against Mighty Mouse, you know.You would also know he got screwed out of the belt in that fight. However, he was flat in his rematch and had basically nothing for MM in the rematch. As for Joe B-Wan Kenobi, I was expecting more BANG against MM. Didn’t happen. On this fight, I look for both fighters to bring it since the loss should have lit the fire under them! Unfortunately, only one can win, and I look for The “Joe Jitsu Practitioner” to get his second date with the champ!
Jim: Both guys bring good standup and wrestling to the table and both are top of the food chain 125 pounders so this will be a closely contested fight. I actually favor Uncle Creepy in the standup department. I think he’s more technical and and more diverse. Benavidez holds a power advantage but McCall has a serious chin. I see wrestling being a stalemate in this fight, so I’m going to say McCall does enough on the feet to take a close decision. Ian McCall via Unanimous Decision.
Jon Fitch vs. Demian Maia
David: I hate this fight. HATE HATE HATE. I’m a HUGE Maia fan, as most of you long-time Maia fan, and as long as he can get someone down, he can and normally will, win. His standing has improved, and the move to 170 looks to have really made him sharper and hasn’t cost him much in speed. Jon Fitch is, well, Jon Fitch. He’s going to take Maia down (like he does everyone else since GSP) and see what he can do. Maia is dangerous on his back, so if Fitch moves his arm in the wrong spot, Maia can snatch it. To me, the difference is going to be Fitch’s power. If Maia snatches an arm or a neck with 2-3 minutes left, its game over, if he does it with 30 seconds left, Fitch normally can just wait it out and not tap. The Question is, that second or third time, what happens? Will there be a second time? I’m a Fitch fan, and I’ll take him by 29-28 on 2 of 3 scorecards, but I’m pulling for Maia.
Roni: I LOVE this fight!!! One of the most intriguing fight of the year IMO. This will be a ground battle, but one that even the fans should be intrigued and excited! This will be a testament to either guy! I love Fitch’s control on the top. but let us not forget that Erick Silva almost got the RNC on Fitch. And if Erick can do it, Maia will probably not miss that chance! The only way I see for Fitch is to tire Maia so much he has no gas to do anything but survive a decision. But I am betting on Maia sub in the second!
Jim: Great fight here if you’re a fan of grappling. These are two of the better grapplers in the world. I don’t see Maia submitting Fitch. I believe Maia has 1 submission in his last 9 fights, and Fitch is pretty much impossible to submit. So its going to come down to cardio. This is where Fitch shines and Maia does not. I see Fitch wearing Maia out in the clinch, against the cage, and on the mat until Maia completely gasses and Fitch will pour it on towards the end for a clear cut decision. Jon Fitch via Unanimous Decision.
David: Is it me, or does Overeem look a bit smaller than he has in the past? I’m not making a Roid joke, I’m being serious. He simply isn’t as bulked as he was. True, this is pre-cut so he, like most fighters, looks like a normal human, but he just doesn’t look as massive as he was. maybe water weight has filled him in. Bigfoot is Bigfoot. I think he was exposed a bit by DC and CAIN, and while there is no shame in losing to those two, it does kinda make you wonder what is going to happen with a third loss. A win really doesn’t help him either, with Cain having the title. As for the fight itself, I think it comes down to AO’s chin. If he can counter punch the Bigfoot, absorb the 4-5 shots he is going to take, then he can win the fight fairly easily if he keeps his back off the cage. I think he’s smart enough to do so, and TKO’s Bigfoot in the second. Bigfoot has little to no head movement, and that’s gonna get him killed.
Roni: This is a fight in which anything can happen. Silva is one of the most dangeroud GnP in the business. I see his loss to Cain as bad luck. Not saying he should have won, but the first elbow from Cain cut him and the blood went straight to his eyes blinding him. if not for that, he is a legit BB in BJJ and could have done something from the bottom. So I’d LOVE for him to beat AO and rematch Cain. However, his humongous chin is a huge target that AO will not miss. I see this fight as a KO victory for AO in the first.
Jim: What else can I say about this fight other than how does Bigfoot not get pummeled? Overeem is the most technical and powerful heavyweight in the world when standing. He also has good takedown defense and will be the much faster fighter. Silva has been quite chinny lately and he’s a slow plodding big man. I think Overeem will land a combo which will crumble Bigfoot and Overeem finishes it with strikes. Alistair Overeem via TKO Round 1.
David: Rashad might be the second best LHW in the world, but the problem is, and this is almost a theme in the UFC. Stop me if you have heard this.
He isn’t going to beat the champion.
He looked like poo vs the champion.
He is going to beat 95% of the division.
So what do we do?
Lil Nog isn’t a threat to a top 5 guy like Rashad. He’s Brazzilian, so he’s a black belt, and he’s got a hard chin and good/great power. But against Rashad? I think he’s slower, more methodical and I’m not sure he has the handspeed to get a solid hit. Rashad has good head movement and has always moved like a middleweight. I think this fight goes as long as Lil Nog can stay with Rashad and his chin hold out. So. 30-27×3 Rashad.
Roni: I see this fight as a great stylistical matchup. And going against most, I’d pick Lil’Nog to win.
Reason? Rashad likes to stand up and bang! The problem? Rashad can be hit and when he’s hit, he gets dizzy (like Mir). let us not forget that lil’Nog’s background is boxing.
I see them standing, Lil’Nog finds Rashad’s chin. Rashad goes for the takedown (which he always does when dazed), but this time he has Nog under him!
I see a 3rd round submission win for Nog!
Jim: Lame fight and does nothing For Rashad here. This is a one sided fight and Lil Nog has nothing for Rashad. The blueprint has been made for how to defeat Lil Nog. He’s been taken down and neutralized by wrestlers such as Bader and Davis in the past. Nog’s problem? Rashad is even better than those guys. Rashad will be much faster on the feet and his transitions from standup to takedowns are seamless and explosive. He’s going to beat Nog everywhere in this fight. I originally thought Rashad would cruise to a 30-27 decision across the board but rumors of Nog’s personal life make me think he gets roughed up and finished. Rashad Evans via TKO 3rd Round, Ground and Pound.
Featherweight Title Fight
José Aldo (c) vs. Frankie Edgar
Roni: man, I can’t wait for this fight! The first mega-fight since BJ & GSP! The tweak is that this time GSP would go down in weight to face BJ!
In my opinion, the fight will hinge in Aldo’s kicks & BJJ. If they stand, he will probably take Frankie’s legs and win a good decision. If Frankie hawever takes Aldo down,
I look for Aldo finaly showing his BJJ and submitting Frankie!
Aldo is my winner, but the way of victory will depend on what frankie does!
Jim: I think the only way Aldo wins this fight is with a huge shot that puts Edgar out, because I don’t see Aldo submitting Edgar or lasting 5 rounds at the pace Edgar sets. Edgar has never been subbed and also trains with Ricardo Almeida and Renzo Gracie. I know people are talking about Aldo and his leg kicks and blah blah blah, but Frankie will catch one of those legs kicks and drive Aldo on his ass. I also think Edgar mixes up some wrestling here in the first few rounds to wear on the cardio of Aldo. Once he does that he’ll look to box Aldo up a bit with his technical boxing, fast hands, and good movement in the later rounds. I see Aldo fading hard here and getting discouraged. And I see him losing his belt. Frankie Edgar becomes the NEW Featherweight champion of the world via Unanimous Decision.
Frankie is a SMALL Lightweight, but he’s faster than the entire roster.
Jose is a HUGE Featherweight, and is stronger than THAT entire roster.
The issue becomes, because its not like the weight cut is going to hurt Frankie, in truth, Aldo is cutting more weight than the former 155 champion. is Frankie’s chin. They are both going to be moving around, and Frankie is going to take hits from angles he hasn’t seen before. The problem for Aldo, is Frankie is NOT going to quit, he is NOT going to tire, and he is NOT going to stop hitting you. They have both gone 25 minutes and could easily go 60.
So the difference?
Aldo’s feet, He can throw a foot at you from every angle, and keep them moving no matter how hard to hit him. Aldo is still going to be the bigger opponent, and I don’t see a ground game being a factor. But if Aldo gets hurt, he can trap Frankie on the cage and take a minute to clear the cobwebs. I don’t think Frankie has that option.
My Picks, and you can join here as well.
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