Welcome to the UFC on FX breakdown!
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Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Light Heavyweight Wagner Prado vs. Roger Hollett
David: Prado has guts, taking on Phil Davis for the second time, knowing he had nothing for him the first time and only a mistake gave him a chance to get away with his record intact. This is a “show us SOMETHING before we cut you” fight. Roger Hollett isn’t nearly as good on the ground as Phil Davis, but he can submit you if you go to the ground with him. This is a fight with 2 guys trying to prove they belong. I’ll take Hollett, as Prado really hasn’t shown me anything as far as takedown defense.
Preliminary Card (Fuel TV)
Middleweight Ronny Markes vs. Andrew Craig
Roni – The Nova Uniao fighter Ronny Markes is a very well rounded fighter, distributing equally his wins equally between KO/TKO, Submissions and decisions. That shows he can win everywhere, even if it goes the distance. Craig faced adversity but persevered against Rafael Natal. but I fear he won’t be able to overcome another Brazilian this time around.
David: Andrew is an USAMMA alum, so I’m pulling for him, but he really doesn’t have m any ways to win this. Sorry, Andrew.
Lightweight Thiago Tavares vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov
Roni – Khabib is a perfect 18-0, but his best win was over Tibau (decision) on UFC 148. Thiago tavares won his last two fights in Brazil against Spencer Fisher (TKO) and Sam Stout (decision). I see Thiago extending his record via sub on second round and giving “The Eagle” his first loss.
David– I love this fight, This one could be fight of the night.
Heavyweight Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Ben Rothwell
Collin-There is a really solid chance that Ben could use what I perceive to be a striking advatage to put Gabe Gonzaga to sleep. There is also a chance that he won’t be able to and will be exhausted by the start of the second round. If that happens look for Gabe to get an easy takedown, pass guard, and finish with an Americana from mount. I see the second as the more probably outcome, and I favor Napao.
David: GG hasn’t shown much since winning against Cro-Cop in stunning fashion. Rothwell has looked very good lately. I’ll take the Journeyman.
Roni – Both guys are coming from wins, but “Napao” is a more complete fighter. He should submit or KO big Ben on the first round. I vote for a Sub.
Middleweight Daniel Sarafian vs. C.B. Dollaway
David: I got Sarafian.
Roni – Using the words of Matt Hughes (later repeated by GSP), C.B. Dollaway “did not impress me” in his fight against Miller. I know I might be making this a submission fest, but I have Sarafian submitting C.B. on the second round.
Collin-I’ll be honest, I’ve never seen Sarafian fight, but I have seen Dollaway fight and it is painful. So here is hoping he loses this fight in some form or fashion and gets closer to being out of the UFC.
Middleweight Vitor Belfort vs. Michael Bisping
David: Gonna have to wait for the PODCAST!
Roni – This should be a good fight. If Bisping can weather the storm early, he has great chances against Vitor. But Vitor showed he improved his game against Jon Jones and did not “fade away” as expected, faring much better against Jones than anyone could anticipate. Bisping is already looking past Vitor, and I think this is a big mistake. Vitor wants a rematch against Silva, and the fact UFC favors Bisping and will not award Vitor a title shot even if he wins should make him even more angry and looking to punish Bisping and prove UFC wrong for counting him out. I have Vitor pulling the upset here. KO in the first or a hard fought decision win.
Collin- An excellent fight here. Both of these guys are pretty exciting fighters and both are also very relevant in the middleweight division. Vitor is in a nice second youth, is in good shape as always and is a bad stylistic match for “The Count”. We’ve seen Bisping get dropped early in fights with much lesser opposition, such as Akiyama, Denis Kang, Jorge Rivera, Wanderlei Silva and even Matt Hammill was putting punches on his chin when they fought. If he lets Vitor put punches together like this, he will be in for a very short and violent fight. What makes this matchup so interesting, though, is that he is also a bad matchup for Belfort. Bisping is a super conditioned athlete who is often durable enough to drag you later into a fight, when you are far more tired than hi,. If he can survive an early onslaught and drag Vitor into the fourth and fifth rounds, I see him controlling the fight for a decision or even a late stoppage. I see a violent Belfort KO as more likely though, and favor him to put away the brash Brit in the first round.
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