UFC 153 Preview

Welcome to the UFC 153 Preview!

For a bit more on the fight card, take a listen to Jack and David on the Podcast!

We have James Jacobs, Collin Caprini and David Snipes, but time is short, lets get to the Picks!

Prelim Picks
Rony Mariano Bezerra vs Sam Sicilia
Brazil TUF winner Rony Jason faces off against hard hitting former TUF alum Sam Sicilia. Sicilia has big power in his hands and is a good wrestler, but I think he’ll be outmatched here by the better overall MMA fighter in Rony Jason. Rony Jason will have better techincal strking and he’ll avoid Sicilia’s winging haymakers. Because Sicilia’s wings his punches he tends to fade rather quickly. I think by round two Rony Jason takes advantage of this, gets the fight to the mat, where he’ll take a gassing Sicilia’s back and finish him with a rear naked choke. Rony Jason via 2nd Round Submission.
Gleison Tibau     vs     Francisco Trinaldo
Trinaldo has only gone to the scorecards once, and has great power and is better than he looked on the ground, while we all know what we have in Tibau, who’s been in the UFC forever (UFC 65!) even though he’s only 29. Lets keep in mind Trinaldo is back to his natural weight, and I like him to find a hole in Tibau’s defense, and win this one in the 2nd.

Demian Maia vs Rick Story

 James: Maia is a world class grappler but I think this will be a tough fight for him. Maia tends to gas in fights and I don’t think the cut to 170 will help his gas tank. Story is a tough kid who has power in his hands, good wrestling, and is a grinder. I think he’s going to stand with Maia with no worries about Maia’s power and trade shots with him. Story, will also look to push Maia against the fence and dirty box. I think the fight will be evenly matched but I see Maia gassing midway and Story controlling the rest of the fight. Story wins via Unanimous Decision

Collin: It is no real secret that I am not a big fan of Rick Story.  His standup is plodding, slow and predictable, his BJJ is loose and his clinch game is positively as boring as they come.  Most of the luster has faded in fans eyes that came after the questionable decision win over Thiago Alves. Maia looked 100x better against Dong Hyun Kim in there truncated affair in his welterweight debut than I expected.  He looked strong at 170, and he also seemed intent on using his BJJ again, which is a great thing for one of the best BJJ fighters ever at his weight.  Look for some sloppy standup in this one, and some ugly clinch work.  Eventually this fight will hit the floor though and I fully expect Maia to make Story look like a child there.  Look for Story to try for a round-winning takedown in the last 40 seconds or so and get swept like a sac of flour and subbed.

David:On several of these fights, I’m just going to refer to the podcast for my breakdown!

Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado

Collin: I must confess that I missed their first fight, but from what I gather Prado actually looked decent before the eye poke.  Even the same, this is still a pretty cut and dry matchup in my mind.  He might be able to tag Davis, but can he keep Phil from taking him down and running roughshod with his top game?  I doubt it.  Look for an early takedown by Phil and a neat submission like the ones he pulled off on Tim Boetsch and Alex Gustaffson.

James: I thought Prado looked much more comfortable on the feet and was able to tag Phil in the first fight before the eye poke. Davis would be smart to get this fight to the ground as soon as possible and avoid the standup with Prado, who has good power. And that’s exactly what I see happening. I think Davis takes Prado down, is able to pass Prado’s guard, and eventaully locks in a Kimura. Davis via 1st Round Submission.

David: I have no idea why Prado wants this, he didn’t look like he had anything for Davis, and only the eyepoke saved him from his first loss. Davis pulled a Koscheck, and While he might learn a good bit about fighting on the big stage, and goes back to the homeland, no chance he caught up that much. Davis via boring fight.

Glover Teixeira vs Fabio Maldonado

James: This fight will be fireworks while it lasts. Glover is just ferocious in everything he does. Standing and on the mat. Maldonado is coming off two questionable losses to Kingbury and Pokrajac. He is a solid boxer and lands bigtime body power shots. He does tend to leave himself open to counters and I think that will be his undoing in this fight. Glover will land a counter shot eventually, follow Maldonado to the floor, and look to sink in a rear naked choke. Glover Teixeira via Submission Round 2.
David: Podcast, sorry.

Erick Silva vs Jon Fitch

Collin: On paper this should be a really interesting matchup.  Silva has looked like a super talented athlete with great stamina and devastating striking, but he also has a tendency to get a tad wild at times.  He could crack Fitch with a hateful knee or right hand, or he could start swinging and get taken down.  On the floor it will be really interesting to see how this fight develops.  Silva is a big WW and his BJJ looked phenomenal against Charlie Brennamen, and we are all aware of Dave Camirillo product Fitch and his Purdue wrestling pedigree.  Most Fitch fights hit the floor and whoever wins that battle takes this fight in my eyes.

James: To me Jon Fitch is coming toward the end of being a relevant fighter. I thought he lost to BJ Penn, who’s a Lightweight fighter, and he got destroyed in 12 seconds against Johnny Hendricks. He also hasn’t fought in close to 10 months and is coming off a knee injury, and before that a shoulder injury. Erick Silva is a fast riser in the division. He’s a black belt in BJJ and Judo and is one of the most explosive athletes in the 170 Lbs division. We all know what Fitch’s gameplan will be. Take Silva down and smother him for 3 rounds. Silva showed he has very good takedown defense against Charlie Brenneman, and he scrambles well to his feet. I just think Silva is the better fighter at this point in time and will drop Fitch with a heavy shot, swarm him, and finish him with punches. Erick Silva via TKO Round 2.

David: I’m a Fitch fan, but I love me some Erick, but this fight is going to go a long way in the division. Fitch is a title contender coming off a loss. Erick wins this fight, and he has to be looking at a number 1 contender fight. Erick loses and he goes to the middle of the pack on FX. Fitch is not getting a title shot anytime soon, but is right there waiting on someone.  (and should have gotten a rematch already)

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Dave Herman

Collin: This fight is both extremely exciting to me and extremely scary at the same.  When I look at this fight on paper I see the same thing that Jim does.  Nogueira should be able to box up Herman, after all Herman was getting picked apart standing by Jon Olav Einemo and Nog is one of the more underrated strikers in the HW division.  On the floor, he obviously has nothing to offer Nogueira.  Nog is bigger, Nog is stronger.  It is just scary to me that a decently well rounded fighter with good conditioning might just stay in the fight long enough to find a way to win.  I just don’t see it happening though, and I look for Nogueira to get a big win here.  It could happen in the form of a KO the way it happened in the Schaub fight, a good rounded decision that we saw with Couture or a beautiful submission.

James: Easy fight to call here. Dave Herman is a good athlete has decent power in his hands, but other than that doesn’t offer Big Nog much. Nog will have better boxing technique, and of course if it hits the mat its game over for Herman. The one question I have is Nog’s chin. Will it hold up if Herman is able to land a solid shot? I’m guessing it does, and eventually this fight finds its way to the mat where Nog pulls off a slick arm bar. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira via 2nd Round Submission.

David: Last time I promise, but Jack and I go into a bit here on the PODCAST~! (Its free and its on iTunes)

Anderson Silva vs Stephan Bonnar

James: I think this fight is much closer than the line indicates. The line is just absurd in my opinion. Bonnar is a big, tough, durable 205er, has good boxing and holds a black belt in Karate and BJJ. He has never been KO’d or submitted in a fight and he’s fought some of the best fighters in the world. Unfortunately for him he’s fighting the best MMA fighter on the planet. I think Bonnar could use his size and grappling to get Silva to the mat and tire him out, but I don’t think it lasts very long. Eventually, Silva will find his timing and start to pick Bonnar apart. Because this is a 3 round fight and Bonnar is such a tough fighter I think he makes it all the way to the end here. Silva via Unanimous Decision.
Collin: Wow, just wow.  Here we are in 2012, and Anderson Silva is fighting Stephan Bonnar in the main event of a PPV.  Right on.  This is an extremely interesting type of matchup borne completely of necessity.  Anderson Silva should win this fight.  He is the best striker in the Mixed Martial Arts world.  His kicks, knees, elbows and punches are on a completely different level than Stephan Bonnar.  Here is the thing though: Bonnar is not an entirely defenseless fighter.  Bonnar is a pretty big light heavyweight and he is stronger than Anderson for sure.  Stephan poses a pretty big threat to anyone because not only is he tough as nails but he is also a great BJJ fighter.  People tend to forget about this because of his famous slugfest with Forest Griffin, but he has his root as a Carlson Gracie black belt.  He has a phenomenal top game, great guard passes and he has solid ground and pound.  The odds are certainly extremely long, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility that he could get top position and damage Anderson quite badly.  Probably won’t happen though.  Look for something spectacular for Anderson leaving Bonnar prostrate on the canvas somewhere in the second round.

David: Can Anderson come out to Real American? This reminds me of old WWE shows, where the Main Event has Hulk Hogan come out, get beaten up a bit, then hit the Big Boot and go home with the fans happy. Bonners gonna muscle inside, then Anderson’s gonna hit that front kick, and down goes Bonner. Live! and only on PPV.

Yes, you will see the creepy dance tonight

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