UPDATED: Projected Week 4 BCS Standings

Kenneth Massey’s ratings finally were released Monday, and once they were plugged into the grid an interesting thing happened — a bunch of movement occurred in the projections of the BCS standings. Let’s take a look at the way things line up, with four of the six BCS computers accounted for (neither Peter Wolfe nor Anderson & Hester will release rankings until the first weekend of October) and the coaches’ poll (the Harris Poll also withholds rankings until October). The four computers are averaged, as they would be were there six; standing in for the Harris as the second human poll is the former second poll of the BCS, the AP poll.

 

PV CM JS RB KM COACH AP BCS
1 1 Alabama 18 24 25 7 0.740 1473 0.9986 1499 0.9993 0.9127
2 2 Oregon 23 21 23 9 0.760 1371 0.9295 1414 0.9427 0.8774
3 4 Florida State 19 17 12 16 0.640 1306 0.8854 1340 0.8933 0.8063
4 3 LSU 7 20 24 0.510 1361 0.9227 1346 0.8973 0.7767
5 6 Stanford 25 22 22 24 0.930 949 0.6434 1055 0.7033 0.7589
6 8 Kansas State 20 19 20 18 0.770 1000 0.6780 1067 0.7113 0.7198
7 7 South Carolina 14 16 19 12 0.610 1149 0.7790 1147 0.7647 0.7179
8 9 Notre Dame 24 23 21 23 0.910 836 0.5668 1003 0.6687 0.7151
9 5 Georgia 15 18 15 0.480 1224 0.8298 1245 0.8300 0.7133
10 10 Florida 22 25 5 20 0.720 817 0.5539 864 0.5760 0.6166
11 11 West Virginia 13 2 6 8 0.290 1137 0.7708 1045 0.6967 0.5858
12 12 Texas 12 15 21 0.480 924 0.6264 856 0.5707 0.5590
13 13 USC 9 18 0.270 813 0.5512 801 0.5340 0.4517
14 14 Oklahoma 12 13 0.250 699 0.4739 611 0.4073 0.3771
15 17 Oregon State 21 13 9 25 0.680 220 0.1492 451 0.3007 0.3766
16 15 TCU 1 10 11 0.220 705 0.4780 616 0.4107 0.3695
17 18 Michigan State 14 17 19 0.500 404 0.2739 348 0.2320 0.3353
18 16 Clemson 4 7 8 4 0.230 560 0.3797 588 0.3920 0.3339
19 20 Ohio State 16 6 13 0.350 0.0000 633 0.4220 0.2573
20 19 Louisville 11 3 0.140 493 0.3342 414 0.2760 0.2501
21 21 Mississippi State 17 2 0.190 349 0.2366 246 0.1640 0.1969
22 23 Rutgers 8 5 7 10 0.300 98 0.0664 128 0.0853 0.1506
23 29 Iowa State 9 2 22 0.330 45 0.0305 16 0.0107 0.1237
24 22 Boise State 8 16 0.240 69 0.0468 114 0.0760 0.1209
25 24 Nebraska 0.000 327 0.2217 179 0.1193 0.1137
26 26 Wisconsin 11 15 0.260 102 0.0692 13 0.0087 0.1126
27 25 Baylor 14 0.140 101 0.0685 92 0.0613 0.0899
28 33 Texas Tech 6 17 0.230 17 0.0115 10 0.0067 0.0827
29 35 Louisiana Tech 3 14 0.170 28 0.0190 7 0.0047 0.0645
30 34 UCLA 11 0.110 33 0.0224 79 0.0527 0.0617
31 28 Northwestern 5 0.050 96 0.0651 89 0.0593 0.0581
32 27 Michigan 10 0.100 57 0.0386 44 0.0293 0.0560
33 31 Oklahoma State 1 3 0.040 154 0.1044 12 0.0080 0.0508
34 32 Arizona 3 4 5 0.120 16 0.0108 17 0.0113 0.0474
35 30 Ohio 10 0.100 13 0.0088 40 0.0267 0.0452
36 44 Purdue 6 0.060 4 0.0027 5 0.0033 0.0220
37 37 Cincinnati 1 0.010 42 0.0285 10 0.0067 0.0150
38 36 Miami (FL) 4 0.040 2 0.0014 1 0.0007 0.0140
39 39 Texas A&M 0.000 31 0.0210 11 0.0073 0.0095
40 38 Minnesota 2 0.020 11 0.0075 0.0000 0.0092
41 40 Arizona State 0.000 22 0.0149 8 0.0053 0.0067
42 41 Virginia Tech 0.000 0.0000 26 0.0173 0.0058
43 43 Tennessee 0.000 6 0.0041 10 0.0067 0.0036
44 42 Missouri 1 0.010 0.0000 0.0000 0.0033
45 45 Western Kentucky 0.000 5 0.0034 0.0000 0.0011
46 46 Louisiana-Monroe 0.000 4 0.0027 0.0000 0.0009
47 47 San Jose State 0.000 2 0.0014 0.0000 0.0005
48 48 Washington 0.000 2 0.0014 0.0000 0.0005

 

Let’s look at Massey’s numbers for a second. Like the Colley Matrix, the Massey Ratings are hot on Pac-12 teams. Oregon State is ranked #1 in Massey’s eyes, followed by Stanford at #2. Notre Dame is #3. The biggest upward trend was with Iowa State, who benefited from Massey’s #4 ranking to move from #29 in the BCS projections into the top 25 at #23.

The biggest losers? The teams the human eyeballs seem to love best. Without the crutch of a preseason poll to lean upon for the order of teams in any given human ballot, the computers have had no problem radically reshuffling the deck. The Massey Ratings hate Alabama (#19), Oregon (#17), Florida State (#10) and LSU (#28). Only the Seminoles moved upward, passing the Tigers into the #3 spot in the BCS projections.

The biggest mover overall (outside the top 25) was Purdue, whose #20 spot in the Massey Ratings allowed the Boilermakers to jump eight spots to #36. The most painful drop had to be Georgia, who fell from #5 to #9 after failing to be ranked in Massey’s top 25. In the process the Bulldogs were passed by SEC East rival South Carolina (#7).

Just remember, everyone… in a few weeks we get two more computers to complain about as well as a whole new batch of voters less reliable than the AP. At least there’s just two more years…

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