UFC on Fox 4 preview

UFC on FOX IV!

Welcome to the preview! With me as always is Collin Caprini, Jim Jacobs and I am your party Host, David Snipes.

This isn’t the most beloved card, and don’t forget to check out the Roundtable from earlier today!

Lets get to the Fights!

Featherweight bout:  Cole Miller vs.  Nam Phan

Collin: This is a great fight to open up the card with.  Cole is a savage who is unafraid to mix it up standing but has some of the slickest BJJ in the featherweight division.  Phan is a slightly undersized featherweight with a sound striking attack and decent ground work.  Both have a fan friendly style, Miller being outspoken in his belief that “wrestlers are ruining the sport”, so don’t be surprised if these two put on a fight of the night level show.  Phan might be able to keep distance, use his kicks and straight punches to get a decision win.  This seems unlikely however; Expect the bigger, stronger Miller to close the distance, rough Phan up a bit in the clinch and get a submission finish somewhere in the fight.

Miller via Submission in the Second Round.

Jim: Its hard envisioning a Nam Phan win here. Sure he’s a well rounded fighter and is a tough kid but he’s in for a rough night here. Cole Miller will be the much bigger fighter and will keep Nam at a distance, and when this fight hits the mat Miller will have his way. Miller via Sub Round 2.

David: Going into this fight, I didnt have any issue thinking Cole was going to win this fight, pretty easily. Problem is, to hear him on the Sherdog Radio Network, almost makes me want to take Nam here. Cole sounded like he didn’t care, and thats why he looks like poo. The best Nam can’t beat an above average Cole, but a good Nam can beat a cruddy Cole.
Cole via R2 tko

Featherweight bout:  Josh Grispi vs.  Rani Yahya

Jim: Hmm, on paper this is good matchmaking by Joe Silva. These two guys have similar skill sets. Grispi was on a roll in WEC and looked to be a worthy opponent for Jose Aldo in the 145 division. Poirier and Roop derailed that train. Yahya is one of the best grapplers in the lower weight classes of MMA. This is a fight that I can’t wait to see hit the mat. Having said that, I feel like this will turn into a sloppy standup fight between these two guys. I think Grispi gets the better of exchanges and he gets off the schnide with a close Decision win.

David: I’ll enjoy this fight between two guys that need to get back on the horse up the ranks, I think Josh can keep it on the feet long enough to win this.
Collin: Good fight indeed. Not a good matchup for Grispi. He isn’t a great striker, and going to the ground with an Abu Dhabi champion is never a good idea. Rani has one of the best half guards in the game, he’ll use it to get on top and dominate from there.

Yahya, decision.

Welterweight bout:  Mike Swick vs.  DaMarques Johnson

David: I like Mike Swick, always have. Dustin James threw out a fascinating stat, he has 9 wins in the UFC- but every man he beat is currently not in the UFC. That’s just amazing. Johnson is another also-ran TUF vet, but he’s 4-4 in the UFC and I think if Swick is 100%, he can put the fight where he wants it. He is/was stronger, faster and more well-rounded, and this should be a gift win.

Swick, Sub 2

Collin: A really interesting matchup here.  Both guys are entirely average in their skill sets, but talented and gifted athletes.  Johnson was a very promising prospect coming into his seasons of The Ultimate Fighter, but he ended that contest just as he would so many others; by finding a way to lose a fight he should have won.  Johnson has  slight power edge, “Quick” Swick a speed edge.  Ground game favors Swick in my opinion.  Cardio favors a healthy Swick, if he isn’t battling any diseases/eating disorders anymore, which  I don’t think he is.

Swick, TKO, 3

Jim: The only thing that makes me hesitant to pick Swick here is his time away from the cage. The man hasn’t fought in over 2 years. Having said that Swick is just a little better everywhere than Johnson. I think Swick is going to get the better of the standup exchanges over the course of 3 rounds and stop Johnson’s takedown attempts. Swick via Unanimous Decision.

Featherweight bout:  Manvel Gamburyan vs.  Michihiro Omigawa

Collin: This is an interesting clash of Featherweights who most likely are fighting for their UFC lives, especially Manvel, who will have lost 4 straight should he lose on this card.  Gamburyan has a very solid judo base and has added absolutely violent striking to his game, although he is not the most technical fighter on the roster.  Omigawa also has his roots in “The Gentle Way” and decent striking.  He may not possess the same power in his striking that “The Anvil” does, but his technique is more sound, and his submission skills appear to be superior.  Look for a war in this fight, expect violent standup exchanges mixed with intricate clinching and some submission attempts.

Omigawa via Decision.

David: Manvel hits harder, Omi hits more precisely. I wonder how soon this bout hits the ground? I’d give it to Omi on the ground if that comes to pass. I do think this is a fairly even matchup. I like Manvel, but it seems he always drops a fight when he gets to the top, this is too low on the card for him to lose. Manvel, DEC

Jim: Really a tossup fight in my opinion. Both guys have similar skill sets. Manny holds a slight edge due to his Judo and power in his hands, but Omigawa is the more technical fighter. I think Gamburyan lands more takedowns in this fight and sways the judges in his favor. Gamburyan via close Decision win.

Lightweight bout:  Joe Lauzon vs.  Jamie Varner

David: Jamie Varner is in a bit of a quandry here, after a MASSIVE upset, gets right back into deep waters. Joe should have to problems here, but let’s be honest, if Joe always fought to the best of his ability, he’d be a top 5 guy, no matter who they threw at him. Varner has good power, and I don’t think he wants to see the floor. I’ll bet Good Joe shows up.
Joe Sub 2

Jim: I’ll be honest, I’m a big Joe Lauzon fan, and not a big fan of Jamie Varner.
Bias aside, I think Lauzon takes this fight. Varner is coming off that huge win over Barboza, and he has very good boxing and wrestling, but I’m betting 1st round beast mode Joe Lauzon shows up for this fight. I think Joe finds a
way to get Varner to the mat, looks for an opening, and subs Varner. Don’t blink, you might miss the Varner tap. Lauzon via Sub in Round 1.

Collin: A really interesting matchup here.  Both guys are entirely average in their skill sets, but talented and gifted athletes.  Johnson was a very promising prospect coming into his seasons of The Ultimate Fighter, but he ended that contest just as he would so many others; by finding a way to lose a fight he should have won.  Johnson has  slight power edge, “Quick” Swick a speed edge.  Ground game favors Swick in my opinion.  Cardio favors a healthy Swick, if he isn’t battling any diseases/eating disorders anymore, which  I don’t think he is.

Swick, TKO, 3

Heavyweight bout:  Phil De Fries vs.  Oli Thompson

Jim: Anyone think this fight lasts longer than 1 round? I don’t think so. Oli the strongman is a beast of a man who is coming off a TKO loss to Shawn Jordan. De Fries same deal against Stipe Miocic. De Fries could weather the initial storm and submit Thompson here, but I think Thompson TKO’s De Fries before he gets the chance to display his ground game. Oli Thompson via 1st Round TKO.

Collin: Like Jim said, expect a violent first round stoppage of someone when these two massive heavyweights collide.  Oli is a former competitve strong man with decent striking, and I think he will probably come up on the winning side.  This is the heavyweight division after all though, so who the hell really knows?

Thompson TKO 1
David: Oli hits hard, but wild. De Fries does have a better ground game, his best bet is to take the fight off the feet and work to gas Oli. De Fries Sub 2 in a less than entertaining fight.

Light Heavyweight bout:  Phil Davis vs.  Wagner Prado

Collin: This is a strange bit of matchmaking here, matching a guy who just lost a number 1 contendership bout with a promotional newcomer who doesn’t even have a ton of hype behind him.  I’ve never even seen Prado fight to know what he wants to do: but it doesn’t matter.   Phil Davis will run him over with wrestling, take him down and submit him.

Davis Submission 1

Jim: Easy fight for Phil here. He’s simply going to take Prado down and work him over. Eventually Davis will be too much and he’ll take Prado’s back, loosen him up with punches, and lock in a rear naked choke. Davis via Sub Round 2.

David: Anyone care about this fight? Moving on Davis DEC

Light Heavyweight bout:  Lyoto Machida vs.  Ryan Bader

David: Hate this fight. Everytime Bader puts some wins together the UFC just tosses him off a cliff and says- Hey, Fly! Problem is, Bader’s just not that good. He lost to Tito for crying out loud. Bader’s strong, great wrestling and takedowns.
Guess who is hard to catch and almost impossible to corner by wrestlers?
Oh yeah, Machida
Lyoto is overly quick, and Ryan is going to have serious problems getting a fist on him, let alone a double. Bader isn’t that quick, but he’s got a decent chin and good head movement. He wont go down easy, but he will go down.

Machida, KO Rd 2

Jim: I think this fight is all Machida. Machida will hold a distinct advantage standing, and will be too much for Bader to deal with. On the feet, Bader is slow and plodding, and wings overhand rights. Machida will be too fast for Bader and will pick him apart. I doubt Bader lands any takedowns because Machida is so elusive and has great TDD. Eventually Bader gets desperate and leaves himself open to a counter. Machida via TKO 2nd Round.

Collin: I’m with you two on this one.  Machida is a hell of a lot faster than Bader standing up, he is a better submission grappler, and his takedown defense is excellent as well.  We must always remember that unfortunate reality that Bader is always two takedowns away from walking away with 29-28 cards, but I don’t see that happening.  The standup between the two of them is also a big enough gap that we may see something spectacular like a jumping front kick type KO.

Machida, KO 2

Light Heavyweight bout:  Maurício Rua vs.  Brandon Vera

Jim: Someone please explain this fight to me. It makes no sense. Shogun is still a top 5 LHW in the world while Vera is a mid-tier fighter and not deserving of main eventing any card much less a UFC on Fox card. Where is Vera better? Shogun has better Muay Thai and a wicked ground game. Shogun also has a granite chin and I can’t see Vera hurting Shogun standing. There isn’t a whole lot to break down here. Shogun will come out and eventually blast Vera and rain punches down until the ref dives on Shogun to stop it. Mauricio Shogun Rua via TKO Round 1.

Collin: An exciting bit of matchmaking here, if you are a Shogun fan or just a fan of violence in general.  Vera should be a fighter willing to exchange in a Muay Thai war with Mauricio, and Shogun will have the edge there against almost any fighter on earth.  Shogun has a speed advantage, a power advantage, and his kicks are far more developed.  And if there are takedowns, look for Shogun to control them from the clinch with trips and sweeps.  Shogun might have the most powerful ground and pound in the sport today, and his cardio is better than Brandon’s as well.  All this should add up to a Rua victory, but Vera is extremely talented on his feet so I wouldn’t be as surprised as some if he were to win this one.

Shogun, TKO 3.

David: Shogun Rd3 TKO.

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